[stupac2]

One other thing I'd add, which I've probably harped on at length: I think a lot of people aren't going to go back to their normal ways even once the government legally allows them to. This poll seems to confirm that:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1250420880187854850?s=20[/tweet]

Which strikes me as thinking we really need to get the testing, social contact tracing, and isolation procedures into place ASAP so that people can start to feel comfortable going back out in their communities. If they don't, and they can afford not to, it will be impossible to "re-open" the economy in the way people seem to be thinking we're just weeks away from.

Right, this is something that I think many people are missing (presumably those in the 20% who would go back to normal immediately), even if you lifted SiP and essential business restrictions tomorrow, those businesses can't and won't just snap back to normal. Even if they 20% of people who would go back are the ones who were most loyal customers at the various restricted businesses, and you get somewhat more takeup from the remaining 80% than you have now, you're still looking at massively scaled back workforces and a bunch of business failures.

My understanding of the restaurant industry, for example, is that a 10% reduction in revenue would be catastrophic. How do you get out of this with less than that? It's going to be functionally impossible, and lots of businesses are going to close absent massive, massive government support.

[stupac2]

One other thing I'd add, which I've probably harped on at length: I think a lot of people aren't going to go back to their normal ways even once the government legally allows them to. This poll seems to confirm that:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1250420880187854850?s=20[/tweet]

Which strikes me as thinking we really need to get the testing, social contact tracing, and isolation procedures into place ASAP so that people can start to feel comfortable going back out in their communities. If they don't, and they can afford not to, it will be impossible to "re-open" the economy in the way people seem to be thinking we're just weeks away from.

Right, this is something that I think many people are missing (presumably those in the 20% who would go back to normal immediately), even if you lifted SiP and essential business restrictions tomorrow, those businesses can't and won't just snap back to normal. Even if they 20% of people who would go back are the ones who were most loyal customers at the various restricted businesses, and you get somewhat more takeup from the remaining 80% than you have now, you're still looking at massively scaled back workforces and a bunch of business failures.

My understanding of the restaurant industry, for example, is that a 10% reduction in revenue would be catastrophic. How do you get out of this with less than that? It's going to be functionally impossible, and lots of businesses are going to close absent massive, massive government support.

[dabigv13]

My wife and I have been talking about this and what it means for her solo medical practice. She is doing telemedicine now but that won't come close to paying rent and payroll. All the banks are giving her the run around on SBA loans, even the one she regularly banks with. Her expenses will definitely rise because she will need a lot more PPE than she typically uses, and that will be difficult if not impossible to stock in short term and plain expensive in long term.

She will probably have to leave her current setup and restart doing telemedicine from home, acting as her own secretary, and leasing clinic space one day a week, because hard to imagine in the after time she will have a clinic schedule full of people wanting to come in.

Unclear if even this would make any money but it would at least lose a lot less than the current situation.

[dabigv13]

My wife and I have been talking about this and what it means for her solo medical practice. She is doing telemedicine now but that won't come close to paying rent and payroll. All the banks are giving her the run around on SBA loans, even the one she regularly banks with. Her expenses will definitely rise because she will need a lot more PPE than she typically uses, and that will be difficult if not impossible to stock in short term and plain expensive in long term.

She will probably have to leave her current setup and restart doing telemedicine from home, acting as her own secretary, and leasing clinic space one day a week, because hard to imagine in the after time she will have a clinic schedule full of people wanting to come in.

Unclear if even this would make any money but it would at least lose a lot less than the current situation.

[2006alum]

My wife and I have been talking about this and what it means for her solo medical practice. She is doing telemedicine now but that won't come close to paying rent and payroll. All the banks are giving her the run around on SBA loans, even the one she regularly banks with. Her expenses will definitely rise because she will need a lot more PPE than she typically uses, and that will be difficult if not impossible to stock in short term and plain expensive in long term.

She will probably have to leave her current setup and restart doing telemedicine from home, acting as her own secretary, and leasing clinic space one day a week, because hard to imagine in the after time she will have a clinic schedule full of people wanting to come in.

Unclear if even this would make any money but it would at least lose a lot less than the current situation.

Sorry to hear that. Hopefully she can weather the tide until things begin to resume. I would imagine most medical procedures will simply be deferred rather than reconsidered altogether, so hopefully she just has to ride things out?

Her experience reminded me of a related anecdote about a similar situation with a close friend who's a solo-practice orthodontist. She has had to lay off her entire staff, but she has continued to do emergency procedures, which means she has had to do all the prep, clean up, insurance billing, etc., herself, whereas before she had her employees do it. When she went to do the most recent round of insurance billing, she found $40,000 worth of claims that her employees had improperly entered and that had been kicked back and rejected. And the employees didn't bother to fix them, so they just sat there! 

As a result, she has resolved that even when things go back to normal, given the likely reduced demand in a least the short to medium term, she will either do the billing herself or else have her part-time stay-at-home partner do it. That's one more job that isn't coming back.

[2006alum]

My wife and I have been talking about this and what it means for her solo medical practice. She is doing telemedicine now but that won't come close to paying rent and payroll. All the banks are giving her the run around on SBA loans, even the one she regularly banks with. Her expenses will definitely rise because she will need a lot more PPE than she typically uses, and that will be difficult if not impossible to stock in short term and plain expensive in long term.

She will probably have to leave her current setup and restart doing telemedicine from home, acting as her own secretary, and leasing clinic space one day a week, because hard to imagine in the after time she will have a clinic schedule full of people wanting to come in.

Unclear if even this would make any money but it would at least lose a lot less than the current situation.

Sorry to hear that. Hopefully she can weather the tide until things begin to resume. I would imagine most medical procedures will simply be deferred rather than reconsidered altogether, so hopefully she just has to ride things out?

Her experience reminded me of a related anecdote about a similar situation with a close friend who's a solo-practice orthodontist. She has had to lay off her entire staff, but she has continued to do emergency procedures, which means she has had to do all the prep, clean up, insurance billing, etc., herself, whereas before she had her employees do it. When she went to do the most recent round of insurance billing, she found $40,000 worth of claims that her employees had improperly entered and that had been kicked back and rejected. And the employees didn't bother to fix them, so they just sat there! 

As a result, she has resolved that even when things go back to normal, given the likely reduced demand in a least the short to medium term, she will either do the billing herself or else have her part-time stay-at-home partner do it. That's one more job that isn't coming back.

[OutsiderFan]

https://www.sba.gov/funding-programs/loa...cy-advance

If $10,000 will make a difference to a company you own that has fewer than 500 employees.

[OutsiderFan]

https://www.sba.gov/funding-programs/loa...cy-advance

If $10,000 will make a difference to a company you own that has fewer than 500 employees.

[2006alum]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1250497132022423554?s=20[/tweet]
About time. Not sure I like the exact specifics of this proposal, but encouraging to see some momentum going to recognize that more legislative relief will be necessary. Maybe this time the checks could be signed, "Future U.S. Taxpayers."

[2006alum]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1250497132022423554?s=20[/tweet]
About time. Not sure I like the exact specifics of this proposal, but encouraging to see some momentum going to recognize that more legislative relief will be necessary. Maybe this time the checks could be signed, "Future U.S. Taxpayers."

[OutsiderFan]

 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
[tweet]https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1250496677791838209[/tweet]

[OutsiderFan]

 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
[tweet]https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1250496677791838209[/tweet]

[cardcrimson]

My wife and I have been talking about this and what it means for her solo medical practice. She is doing telemedicine now but that won't come close to paying rent and payroll. All the banks are giving her the run around on SBA loans, even the one she regularly banks with. Her expenses will definitely rise because she will need a lot more PPE than she typically uses, and that will be difficult if not impossible to stock in short term and plain expensive in long term.

She will probably have to leave her current setup and restart doing telemedicine from home, acting as her own secretary, and leasing clinic space one day a week, because hard to imagine in the after time she will have a clinic schedule full of people wanting to come in.

Unclear if even this would make any money but it would at least lose a lot less than the current situation.

FWIW, BofA sent out an email this morning to thousands of applicants telling them they needed more info, and to click the small business link attached and look for a particular prompt to click to be taken to the appropriate forms. Only problem is that it crashed their system (it is their link, and not a fraud fortunately). Most can't ever find the link. Five hours of trying so far. Even crashed their small business community forum with all the questions and searches. No answers from the phone help. Just keep trying. . . .

[cardcrimson]

My wife and I have been talking about this and what it means for her solo medical practice. She is doing telemedicine now but that won't come close to paying rent and payroll. All the banks are giving her the run around on SBA loans, even the one she regularly banks with. Her expenses will definitely rise because she will need a lot more PPE than she typically uses, and that will be difficult if not impossible to stock in short term and plain expensive in long term.

She will probably have to leave her current setup and restart doing telemedicine from home, acting as her own secretary, and leasing clinic space one day a week, because hard to imagine in the after time she will have a clinic schedule full of people wanting to come in.

Unclear if even this would make any money but it would at least lose a lot less than the current situation.

FWIW, BofA sent out an email this morning to thousands of applicants telling them they needed more info, and to click the small business link attached and look for a particular prompt to click to be taken to the appropriate forms. Only problem is that it crashed their system (it is their link, and not a fraud fortunately). Most can't ever find the link. Five hours of trying so far. Even crashed their small business community forum with all the questions and searches. No answers from the phone help. Just keep trying. . . .

[Mick]

Ray of sunlight.  We have a daily coronavirus call for senior management and have since our offices were formally closed on 3/13.  Today, for the first time, our CEO talked about preparing to go back to the office.  No, not this month.  But obviously we want to hit the ground running, once we're good to go...the return date will be the later of the CDC's guidelines or the pronouncements of a region's medical officers/politicians.

Just a little ray of sunshine. The furloughed will stay furloughed, and we are likely to add more. I've already been through two rounds of budget cuts in three weeks. Tomorrow, I have to submit a "dollar one" budget in which every single line item will be questioned and will need to be justified. In other words, they want be to get to about 70% less than my original budget.

[Mick]

Ray of sunlight.  We have a daily coronavirus call for senior management and have since our offices were formally closed on 3/13.  Today, for the first time, our CEO talked about preparing to go back to the office.  No, not this month.  But obviously we want to hit the ground running, once we're good to go...the return date will be the later of the CDC's guidelines or the pronouncements of a region's medical officers/politicians.

Just a little ray of sunshine. The furloughed will stay furloughed, and we are likely to add more. I've already been through two rounds of budget cuts in three weeks. Tomorrow, I have to submit a "dollar one" budget in which every single line item will be questioned and will need to be justified. In other words, they want be to get to about 70% less than my original budget.

[Leftcoast]

Tomorrow, I have to submit a "dollar one" budget in which every single line item will be questioned and will need to be justified.  In other words, they want be to get to about 70% less than my original budget.

That sounds awful.  I went through that in the great recession and ended up adding my own name at Round 4 because I had an outside offer and adding my name saved two of my reports.  None of that sounds fun and the conversations that follow with folks you hired and mentored are even less fun.  I suppose the good thing is that after round two no one is surprised because the reasons are obvious.  Best wishes, Mick.

[Leftcoast]

Tomorrow, I have to submit a "dollar one" budget in which every single line item will be questioned and will need to be justified.  In other words, they want be to get to about 70% less than my original budget.

That sounds awful.  I went through that in the great recession and ended up adding my own name at Round 4 because I had an outside offer and adding my name saved two of my reports.  None of that sounds fun and the conversations that follow with folks you hired and mentored are even less fun.  I suppose the good thing is that after round two no one is surprised because the reasons are obvious.  Best wishes, Mick.

[Mick]

Tomorrow, I have to submit a "dollar one" budget in which every single line item will be questioned and will need to be justified.  In other words, they want be to get to about 70% less than my original budget.

That sounds awful.  I went through that in the great recession and ended up adding my own name at Round 4 because I had an outside offer and adding my name saved two of my reports.  None of that sounds fun and the conversations that follow with folks you hired and mentored are even less fun.  I suppose the good thing is that after round two no one is surprised because the reasons are obvious.  Best wishes, Mick.

Thanks. I also have to lay off three more people. And my 14-almost-15 year old dog died.

Unfortunately, I'm not kidding about any of that. Might explain my crankiness over the past few weeks.

[Mick]

Tomorrow, I have to submit a "dollar one" budget in which every single line item will be questioned and will need to be justified.  In other words, they want be to get to about 70% less than my original budget.

That sounds awful.  I went through that in the great recession and ended up adding my own name at Round 4 because I had an outside offer and adding my name saved two of my reports.  None of that sounds fun and the conversations that follow with folks you hired and mentored are even less fun.  I suppose the good thing is that after round two no one is surprised because the reasons are obvious.  Best wishes, Mick.

Thanks. I also have to lay off three more people. And my 14-almost-15 year old dog died.

Unfortunately, I'm not kidding about any of that. Might explain my crankiness over the past few weeks.

[BostonCard]

Thanks.  I also have to lay off three more people.  And my 14-almost-15 year old dog died.

I'm sorry to hear about your employees and your dog.

BC

[BostonCard]

Thanks.  I also have to lay off three more people.  And my 14-almost-15 year old dog died.

I'm sorry to hear about your employees and your dog.

BC

[Leftcoast]

Yup, that doesn't sound very fun and I'm sorry for all of it and the loss of a beloved family pet not the least.  My 2 year old mutt is keeping me sane if only because he's always happy to see me and gives me a great excuse to walk the trails near my house.

My opinion, as stated to many colleagues this past three weeks, is that everybody gets a couple of courtesy cards to burn during the shutdown.  I may have used mine up already.

We're all more on edge than normal and we're all dealing with crap no one else knows about. (Stanford grad or not!)

[Leftcoast]

Yup, that doesn't sound very fun and I'm sorry for all of it and the loss of a beloved family pet not the least.  My 2 year old mutt is keeping me sane if only because he's always happy to see me and gives me a great excuse to walk the trails near my house.

My opinion, as stated to many colleagues this past three weeks, is that everybody gets a couple of courtesy cards to burn during the shutdown.  I may have used mine up already.

We're all more on edge than normal and we're all dealing with crap no one else knows about. (Stanford grad or not!)

[chrisk]

\
I will repeat: I find it nearly unfathomable that Congress has recessed for a month and there isn't even talk of a second wave of stimulus checks. Do congressmen and women really think unemployed people can live for months on $1200? One NY-area relative who had to shut down her self-employed business (and therefore is now unemployed) said she thinks it will be two months before she sees her first relief from unemployment based on the backlog of applications to be processed and the fact that she has to do a telephonic interview with a state official to confirm her (self)-employment. WTF is she supposed to do in the mean time?

I said it a hundred times here: they should've just started sending checks to everyone every month and then clawed back the excess payments to the employed or rich by raising taxes a bit for the higher brackets.  But that was a non-starter for most congresspeople because: 1) Republicans wanted the payments to be as small and hard to get as possible (hence using the totally overwhelmed UI system), and 2) Democrats have a pathology about giving free money to rich people (see: the ACA's overly complicated subsidy program or the resistance to Bernie Sanders et al.'s free college plan).

The IRS checks adjusted gross income and gets bank account information from the same tax return. It doesn’t really take more time to place the limit at $198,000 and save more money for the unemployed. A payment of less than 2% of income means a lot less than a payment of $600/week to someone who has no income.

[chrisk]

\
I will repeat: I find it nearly unfathomable that Congress has recessed for a month and there isn't even talk of a second wave of stimulus checks. Do congressmen and women really think unemployed people can live for months on $1200? One NY-area relative who had to shut down her self-employed business (and therefore is now unemployed) said she thinks it will be two months before she sees her first relief from unemployment based on the backlog of applications to be processed and the fact that she has to do a telephonic interview with a state official to confirm her (self)-employment. WTF is she supposed to do in the mean time?

I said it a hundred times here: they should've just started sending checks to everyone every month and then clawed back the excess payments to the employed or rich by raising taxes a bit for the higher brackets.  But that was a non-starter for most congresspeople because: 1) Republicans wanted the payments to be as small and hard to get as possible (hence using the totally overwhelmed UI system), and 2) Democrats have a pathology about giving free money to rich people (see: the ACA's overly complicated subsidy program or the resistance to Bernie Sanders et al.'s free college plan).

The IRS checks adjusted gross income and gets bank account information from the same tax return. It doesn’t really take more time to place the limit at $198,000 and save more money for the unemployed. A payment of less than 2% of income means a lot less than a payment of $600/week to someone who has no income.

[Mick]

Thanks.  I also have to lay off three more people.  And my 14-almost-15 year old dog died.

I'm sorry to hear about your employees and your dog.

BC

Thanks, BC. First my firm told me to list two or three, then four or five, then I had to provide a list of eight. I've furloughed three, will probably have to furlough or possibly lay off three more.

Mrs. Mick and I have been married 32 years. We've had two pets that entire time. I've been on the road a lot the last six years. I'd say that our dog was Mrs. Mick's best friend. It really sucked, let me tell you.

[Mick]

Thanks.  I also have to lay off three more people.  And my 14-almost-15 year old dog died.

I'm sorry to hear about your employees and your dog.

BC

Thanks, BC. First my firm told me to list two or three, then four or five, then I had to provide a list of eight. I've furloughed three, will probably have to furlough or possibly lay off three more.

Mrs. Mick and I have been married 32 years. We've had two pets that entire time. I've been on the road a lot the last six years. I'd say that our dog was Mrs. Mick's best friend. It really sucked, let me tell you.

[2006alum]

Thanks.  I also have to lay off three more people.  And my 14-almost-15 year old dog died.

I'm sorry to hear about your employees and your dog.

BC

Thanks, BC.  First my firm told me to list two or three, then four or five, then I had to provide a list of eight.  I've furloughed three, will probably have to furlough or possibly lay off three more. 

Mrs. Mick and I have been married 32 years.  We've had two pets that entire time.  I've been on the road a lot the last six years.  I'd say that our dog was Mrs. Mick's best friend.  It really sucked, let me tell you.

Sorry to hear it, man. There's never a good time to lose a family pet, but in these shelter in place times pets seem to be bringing even more love and affection to their owners than in better days. And losing a pet with whom you can't communicate the way you can with a fellow human always carries with it a small sense of lack of closure, an inability to communicate just what they meant to you. :(

Here's hoping you won't need more than one hand to count your layoffs.

[2006alum]

Thanks.  I also have to lay off three more people.  And my 14-almost-15 year old dog died.

I'm sorry to hear about your employees and your dog.

BC

Thanks, BC.  First my firm told me to list two or three, then four or five, then I had to provide a list of eight.  I've furloughed three, will probably have to furlough or possibly lay off three more. 

Mrs. Mick and I have been married 32 years.  We've had two pets that entire time.  I've been on the road a lot the last six years.  I'd say that our dog was Mrs. Mick's best friend.  It really sucked, let me tell you.

Sorry to hear it, man. There's never a good time to lose a family pet, but in these shelter in place times pets seem to be bringing even more love and affection to their owners than in better days. And losing a pet with whom you can't communicate the way you can with a fellow human always carries with it a small sense of lack of closure, an inability to communicate just what they meant to you. :(

Here's hoping you won't need more than one hand to count your layoffs.

[BostonCard]

Yeah, my cats, who are of course completely oblivious of the fact that there's a virus out there that could sicken or kill their owners, are a source of comfort for me, and I'm not even a cat person.

BC

[BostonCard]

Yeah, my cats, who are of course completely oblivious of the fact that there's a virus out there that could sicken or kill their owners, are a source of comfort for me, and I'm not even a cat person.

BC

[burger]

The IRS checks adjusted gross income and gets bank account information from the same tax return.  It doesn’t really take more time to place the limit at $198,000 and save more money for the unemployed.  A payment of less than 2% of income means a lot less than a payment of $600/week to someone who has no income.

I totally agree that some people need the money now, and others don't need any help.  But avoiding the means testing has two big advantages: 1) it speeds things up.  Our payment status on the IRS website is unavailable because we filed federal taxes a couple of weeks ago, and the IRS seems to be using our 2019 tax return--which hasn't been processed yet--to determine if we're under the limits.  I'm guessing a lot of people who need the money now are waiting for the same.  And 2) having made a bunch of money in 2018 or 2019 doesn't mean you haven't lost your job or income now.  Most of the job losses so far are in relatively low-paying service jobs, but it's clear from just reading this board that there are people who made more money who have suffered losses now.  Basing payments on 2019 income is going to lead to some people who need help missing out.

The cost of handing out money to everyone is minimal.  Interest rates for federal borrowing are near 0.  And, like I said, you can claw back excess payments by tweaking tax rates (ignoring the politics, of course).

[burger]

The IRS checks adjusted gross income and gets bank account information from the same tax return.  It doesn’t really take more time to place the limit at $198,000 and save more money for the unemployed.  A payment of less than 2% of income means a lot less than a payment of $600/week to someone who has no income.

I totally agree that some people need the money now, and others don't need any help.  But avoiding the means testing has two big advantages: 1) it speeds things up.  Our payment status on the IRS website is unavailable because we filed federal taxes a couple of weeks ago, and the IRS seems to be using our 2019 tax return--which hasn't been processed yet--to determine if we're under the limits.  I'm guessing a lot of people who need the money now are waiting for the same.  And 2) having made a bunch of money in 2018 or 2019 doesn't mean you haven't lost your job or income now.  Most of the job losses so far are in relatively low-paying service jobs, but it's clear from just reading this board that there are people who made more money who have suffered losses now.  Basing payments on 2019 income is going to lead to some people who need help missing out.

The cost of handing out money to everyone is minimal.  Interest rates for federal borrowing are near 0.  And, like I said, you can claw back excess payments by tweaking tax rates (ignoring the politics, of course).

[chrisk]

The IRS checks adjusted gross income and gets bank account information from the same tax return.  It doesn’t really take more time to place the limit at $198,000 and save more money for the unemployed.  A payment of less than 2% of income means a lot less than a payment of $600/week to someone who has no income.

I totally agree that some people need the money now, and others don't need any help.  But avoiding the means testing has two big advantages: 1) it speeds things up.  Our payment status on the IRS website is unavailable because we filed federal taxes a couple of weeks ago, and the IRS seems to be using our 2019 tax return--which hasn't been processed yet--to determine if we're under the limits.  I'm guessing a lot of people who need the money now are waiting for the same.  And 2) having made a bunch of money in 2018 or 2019 doesn't mean you haven't lost your job or income now.  Most of the job losses so far are in relatively low-paying service jobs, but it's clear from just reading this board that there are people who made more money who have suffered losses now.  Basing payments on 2019 income is going to lead to some people who need help missing out.

The cost of handing out money to everyone is minimal.  Interest rates for federal borrowing are near 0.  And, like I said, you can claw back excess payments by tweaking tax rates (ignoring the politics, of course).

In wartime, a surtax has been placed on high incomes. If this is a war, let’s do that to fund your plan. The people who are still making over $200K should still have some current skin in the game and not just bemoaning a drop in their retirement portfolio. Everybody’s retirement is being affected, particularly the unemployed who have to draw down their 401(k)s.

[chrisk]

The IRS checks adjusted gross income and gets bank account information from the same tax return.  It doesn’t really take more time to place the limit at $198,000 and save more money for the unemployed.  A payment of less than 2% of income means a lot less than a payment of $600/week to someone who has no income.

I totally agree that some people need the money now, and others don't need any help.  But avoiding the means testing has two big advantages: 1) it speeds things up.  Our payment status on the IRS website is unavailable because we filed federal taxes a couple of weeks ago, and the IRS seems to be using our 2019 tax return--which hasn't been processed yet--to determine if we're under the limits.  I'm guessing a lot of people who need the money now are waiting for the same.  And 2) having made a bunch of money in 2018 or 2019 doesn't mean you haven't lost your job or income now.  Most of the job losses so far are in relatively low-paying service jobs, but it's clear from just reading this board that there are people who made more money who have suffered losses now.  Basing payments on 2019 income is going to lead to some people who need help missing out.

The cost of handing out money to everyone is minimal.  Interest rates for federal borrowing are near 0.  And, like I said, you can claw back excess payments by tweaking tax rates (ignoring the politics, of course).

In wartime, a surtax has been placed on high incomes. If this is a war, let’s do that to fund your plan. The people who are still making over $200K should still have some current skin in the game and not just bemoaning a drop in their retirement portfolio. Everybody’s retirement is being affected, particularly the unemployed who have to draw down their 401(k)s.