[yvonne]

We've had many discussions about the value flattening the curve and saving lives versus opening the economy. Well, a team of researchers have tackled that from a purely economic perspective.

Economists at the University of Wyoming estimated the economic benefits from lives saved by efforts to “flatten the curve” outweighed the projected massive hit to the nation’s economy by a staggering $5.2 trillion. Another study by two University of Chicago economists estimated the savings from social distancing could be so brobdingnagian, “it is difficult to think of any intervention with such large potential benefits to American citizens.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/...19-crisis/

[yvonne]

We've had many discussions about the value flattening the curve and saving lives versus opening the economy. Well, a team of researchers have tackled that from a purely economic perspective.

Economists at the University of Wyoming estimated the economic benefits from lives saved by efforts to “flatten the curve” outweighed the projected massive hit to the nation’s economy by a staggering $5.2 trillion. Another study by two University of Chicago economists estimated the savings from social distancing could be so brobdingnagian, “it is difficult to think of any intervention with such large potential benefits to American citizens.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/...19-crisis/

[Genuine Realist]

We've had many discussions about the value flattening the curve and saving lives versus opening the economy. Well, a team of researchers have tackled that from a purely economic perspective.

Economists at the University of Wyoming estimated the economic benefits from lives saved by efforts to “flatten the curve” outweighed the projected massive hit to the nation’s economy by a staggering $5.2 trillion. Another study by two University of Chicago economists estimated the savings from social distancing could be so of immense proportions, “it is difficult to think of any intervention with such large potential benefits to American citizens.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/...19-crisis/

Somewhat simplistic. The issue isn't binary, 1 or 0. The question that will be raised - is being raised - is whether equivalent results could have been achieved by less drastic means. How far down the curve did we really have to go? The study uses the neutral term 'social distancing'. I don't think there's really too much argument about that. Whether it had to be taken to the extremes of SIP is the issue.

[Genuine Realist]

We've had many discussions about the value flattening the curve and saving lives versus opening the economy. Well, a team of researchers have tackled that from a purely economic perspective.

Economists at the University of Wyoming estimated the economic benefits from lives saved by efforts to “flatten the curve” outweighed the projected massive hit to the nation’s economy by a staggering $5.2 trillion. Another study by two University of Chicago economists estimated the savings from social distancing could be so of immense proportions, “it is difficult to think of any intervention with such large potential benefits to American citizens.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/...19-crisis/

Somewhat simplistic. The issue isn't binary, 1 or 0. The question that will be raised - is being raised - is whether equivalent results could have been achieved by less drastic means. How far down the curve did we really have to go? The study uses the neutral term 'social distancing'. I don't think there's really too much argument about that. Whether it had to be taken to the extremes of SIP is the issue.

[oldalum]

Whether it had to be taken to the extremes of SIP is the issue.

I think we're going to get a real, non-modeled answer to that question soon.

[oldalum]

Whether it had to be taken to the extremes of SIP is the issue.

I think we're going to get a real, non-modeled answer to that question soon.

[oregontim]

Ironic. This goes straight to the experts who pointed out, early in the game, that if social distancing (or SIP) works it will generate critics who will cite its success to prove it was in excess. I read that in March, and here it is playing out on this thread.

[oregontim]

Ironic. This goes straight to the experts who pointed out, early in the game, that if social distancing (or SIP) works it will generate critics who will cite its success to prove it was in excess. I read that in March, and here it is playing out on this thread.

[2006alum]

Ironic. This goes straight to the experts who pointed out, early in the game, that if social distancing (or SIP) works it will generate critics who will cite its success to prove it was in excess. I read that in March, and here it is playing out on this thread.

Not sure if this goes in the (gallows) humor thread or here, but right to your point:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/SaskiaPopescu/status/1264358363074146304?s=20[/tweet]

[2006alum]

Ironic. This goes straight to the experts who pointed out, early in the game, that if social distancing (or SIP) works it will generate critics who will cite its success to prove it was in excess. I read that in March, and here it is playing out on this thread.

Not sure if this goes in the (gallows) humor thread or here, but right to your point:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/SaskiaPopescu/status/1264358363074146304?s=20[/tweet]

[Genuine Realist]

Ironic. This goes straight to the experts who pointed out, early in the game, that if social distancing (or SIP) works it will generate critics who will cite its success to prove it was in excess. I read that in March, and here it is playing out on this thread.

Not sure if this goes in the (gallows) humor thread or here, but right to your point:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/SaskiaPopescu/status/1264358363074146304?s=20[/tweet]

I don't believe in hindsight. The epidemiological model was almost universally accepted in mid-March, when SIP was promulgated. It likely did save lives, and performed a valuable service in public education. I"m not going to go back in time and question the lifeboat decision.

However, ten weeks have passed and we have actual, not theoretical, data points. In terms of making forward-going policy, the question of whether measures as extreme as SIP were necessary is natural in terms of what we do next. There are the examples of Sweden. Japan, and the two States Georgia and Florida, that did not go to those extremes, and have had experience that is in roughly the same ball park as those that did. That raises some natural issues. 

My own thought is that the education of the public has been pretty thorough. We will always have dissenters and oppositionists. That's the nature of American society and - in better times - one of its strengths. I think it's time to abandon the more drastic, draconian measures that have been in place, and open up completely, with a regulatory framework, e.g., masks required in indoor environments, six feet distancing in public places, and so on. I don't think we're going to get any more compliance than we already have. 

In case I'm not being clear, I consider the pushback of the 'don't-tread-on-me' element of American society as valuable, even if I don't agree with it entirely and its emphasis may be misguided. It leads to a constant review of conventional wisdom that is necessary and useful.

[Genuine Realist]

Ironic. This goes straight to the experts who pointed out, early in the game, that if social distancing (or SIP) works it will generate critics who will cite its success to prove it was in excess. I read that in March, and here it is playing out on this thread.

Not sure if this goes in the (gallows) humor thread or here, but right to your point:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/SaskiaPopescu/status/1264358363074146304?s=20[/tweet]

I don't believe in hindsight. The epidemiological model was almost universally accepted in mid-March, when SIP was promulgated. It likely did save lives, and performed a valuable service in public education. I"m not going to go back in time and question the lifeboat decision.

However, ten weeks have passed and we have actual, not theoretical, data points. In terms of making forward-going policy, the question of whether measures as extreme as SIP were necessary is natural in terms of what we do next. There are the examples of Sweden. Japan, and the two States Georgia and Florida, that did not go to those extremes, and have had experience that is in roughly the same ball park as those that did. That raises some natural issues. 

My own thought is that the education of the public has been pretty thorough. We will always have dissenters and oppositionists. That's the nature of American society and - in better times - one of its strengths. I think it's time to abandon the more drastic, draconian measures that have been in place, and open up completely, with a regulatory framework, e.g., masks required in indoor environments, six feet distancing in public places, and so on. I don't think we're going to get any more compliance than we already have. 

In case I'm not being clear, I consider the pushback of the 'don't-tread-on-me' element of American society as valuable, even if I don't agree with it entirely and its emphasis may be misguided. It leads to a constant review of conventional wisdom that is necessary and useful.

[BostonCard]

Based on the analysis I presented in this thread: https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=19758, the one week delay in implementing shelter in place orders cost 36,000 lives, which if you assign a value of a statistical life of $10 million, then the one week delay in putting shelter in place orders cost $360 billion dollars.

BC

[BostonCard]

Based on the analysis I presented in this thread: https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=19758, the one week delay in implementing shelter in place orders cost 36,000 lives, which if you assign a value of a statistical life of $10 million, then the one week delay in putting shelter in place orders cost $360 billion dollars.

BC

[burger]

I don't believe in hindsight. The epidemiological model was almost universally accepted in mid-March, when SIP was promulgated. It likely did save lives, and performed a valuable service in public education. I"m not going to go back in time and question the lifeboat decision.

However, ten weeks have passed and we have actual, not theoretical, data points. In terms of making forward-going policy, the question of whether measures as extreme as SIP were necessary is natural in terms of what we do next. There are the examples of Sweden. Japan, and the two States Georgia and Florida, that did not go to those extremes, and have had experience that is in roughly the same ball park as those that did. That raises some natural issues. 

My own thought is that the education of the public has been pretty thorough. We will always have dissenters and oppositionists. That's the nature of American society and - in better times - one of its strengths. I think it's time to abandon the more drastic, draconian measures that have been in place, and open up completely, with a regulatory framework, e.g., masks required in indoor environments, six feet distancing in public places, and so on. I don't think we're going to get any more compliance than we already have. 

In case I'm not being clear, I consider the pushback of the 'don't-tread-on-me' element of American society as valuable, even if I don't agree with it entirely and its emphasis may be misguided. It leads to a constant review of conventional wisdom that is necessary and useful.

You gave four examples to back up your point and, at most, one applies.

To date, Sweden has ~30% more deaths per capita than the US.  Sweden is averaging roughly 2x the US's daily death rate right now.  No one who values human life should be following Sweden's example.

Japan has done better than the US--no one really knows why.

Florida and Georgia are seeing flat or growing numbers of cases.  Let's see where they stand in another few weeks. And lets not forget that voluntary social distancing is probably a big factor here. Just because they've "opened up" doesn't mean that virus numbers aren't being suppressed by people staying home.

[burger]

I don't believe in hindsight. The epidemiological model was almost universally accepted in mid-March, when SIP was promulgated. It likely did save lives, and performed a valuable service in public education. I"m not going to go back in time and question the lifeboat decision.

However, ten weeks have passed and we have actual, not theoretical, data points. In terms of making forward-going policy, the question of whether measures as extreme as SIP were necessary is natural in terms of what we do next. There are the examples of Sweden. Japan, and the two States Georgia and Florida, that did not go to those extremes, and have had experience that is in roughly the same ball park as those that did. That raises some natural issues. 

My own thought is that the education of the public has been pretty thorough. We will always have dissenters and oppositionists. That's the nature of American society and - in better times - one of its strengths. I think it's time to abandon the more drastic, draconian measures that have been in place, and open up completely, with a regulatory framework, e.g., masks required in indoor environments, six feet distancing in public places, and so on. I don't think we're going to get any more compliance than we already have. 

In case I'm not being clear, I consider the pushback of the 'don't-tread-on-me' element of American society as valuable, even if I don't agree with it entirely and its emphasis may be misguided. It leads to a constant review of conventional wisdom that is necessary and useful.

You gave four examples to back up your point and, at most, one applies.

To date, Sweden has ~30% more deaths per capita than the US.  Sweden is averaging roughly 2x the US's daily death rate right now.  No one who values human life should be following Sweden's example.

Japan has done better than the US--no one really knows why.

Florida and Georgia are seeing flat or growing numbers of cases.  Let's see where they stand in another few weeks. And lets not forget that voluntary social distancing is probably a big factor here. Just because they've "opened up" doesn't mean that virus numbers aren't being suppressed by people staying home.

[Mick]

Based on the analysis I presented in this thread: https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=19758, the one week delay in implementing shelter in place orders cost 36,000 lives, which if you assign a value of a statistical life of $10 million, then the one week delay in putting shelter in place orders cost $360 billion dollars.
BC

Does the advanced average age of COVID-19 victims reduce the overall cost?  In this paper, the VSL for 60 year olds is pegged at $2.5 mms. to $3 mms., which would put the one-week delay at $90 billion to $108 billion.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w10199

[Mick]

Based on the analysis I presented in this thread: https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=19758, the one week delay in implementing shelter in place orders cost 36,000 lives, which if you assign a value of a statistical life of $10 million, then the one week delay in putting shelter in place orders cost $360 billion dollars.
BC

Does the advanced average age of COVID-19 victims reduce the overall cost?  In this paper, the VSL for 60 year olds is pegged at $2.5 mms. to $3 mms., which would put the one-week delay at $90 billion to $108 billion.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w10199

[BostonCard]

Based on the analysis I presented in this thread: https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=19758, the one week delay in implementing shelter in place orders cost 36,000 lives, which if you assign a value of a statistical life of $10 million, then the one week delay in putting shelter in place orders cost $360 billion dollars.
BC

Does the advanced average age of COVID-19 victims reduce the overall cost?  In this paper, the VSL for 60 year olds is pegged at $2.5 mms. to $3 mms., which would put the one-week delay at $90 billion to $108 billion.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w10199

The Bush administration tried to apply an age discount to the VSL in the early 2000's, but the move was met with fierce blowback and the administration backtracked.  So, as far as the government is concerned, all lives are valued equally.

That's not a comment on how it should be calculated, mind you.

BC

[BostonCard]

Based on the analysis I presented in this thread: https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=19758, the one week delay in implementing shelter in place orders cost 36,000 lives, which if you assign a value of a statistical life of $10 million, then the one week delay in putting shelter in place orders cost $360 billion dollars.
BC

Does the advanced average age of COVID-19 victims reduce the overall cost?  In this paper, the VSL for 60 year olds is pegged at $2.5 mms. to $3 mms., which would put the one-week delay at $90 billion to $108 billion.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w10199

The Bush administration tried to apply an age discount to the VSL in the early 2000's, but the move was met with fierce blowback and the administration backtracked.  So, as far as the government is concerned, all lives are valued equally.

That's not a comment on how it should be calculated, mind you.

BC

[Farm93]

I don't believe in hindsight. The epidemiological model was almost universally accepted in mid-March, when SIP was promulgated. It likely did save lives, and performed a valuable service in public education. I"m not going to go back in time and question the lifeboat decision.

However, ten weeks have passed and we have actual, not theoretical, data points. In terms of making forward-going policy, the question of whether measures as extreme as SIP were necessary is natural in terms of what we do next. There are the examples of Sweden. Japan, and the two States Georgia and Florida, that did not go to those extremes, and have had experience that is in roughly the same ball park as those that did. That raises some natural issues. 

My own thought is that the education of the public has been pretty thorough. We will always have dissenters and oppositionists. That's the nature of American society and - in better times - one of its strengths. I think it's time to abandon the more drastic, draconian measures that have been in place, and open up completely, with a regulatory framework, e.g., masks required in indoor environments, six feet distancing in public places, and so on. I don't think we're going to get any more compliance than we already have. 

In case I'm not being clear, I consider the pushback of the 'don't-tread-on-me' element of American society as valuable, even if I don't agree with it entirely and its emphasis may be misguided. It leads to a constant review of conventional wisdom that is necessary and useful.

You gave four examples to back up your point and, at most, one applies.

To date, Sweden has ~30% more deaths per capita than the US.  Sweden is averaging roughly 2x the US's daily death rate right now.  No one who values human life should be following Sweden's example.

Japan has done better than the US--no one really knows why.

Florida and Georgia are seeing flat or growing numbers of cases.  Let's see where they stand in another few weeks.  And lets not forget that voluntary social distancing is probably a big factor here.  Just because they've "opened up" doesn't mean that virus numbers aren't being suppressed by people staying home.

And for Sweden the USA is not really the comparable metric.   Norway and Finland share a similar culture, climate, population density, etc. etc. 

Sweden has a per capita death rate that is 8X-10X of its neighbors.   Its neighbors see a death or two each day at this point while Sweden is running close to 100 deaths a day.  I think the idea that Sweden was an example that shelter in place was unnecessary, as GR implied, is about 3 weeks old.   At the time their citizens were loving life in street side cafes, but now many know they made a mistake as they are not very close to the coveted herd immunity.

Japan got away without doing a lot of mandatory items, but many in Tokyo, and around the country, wear masks almost 24/7 in the spring because of pollen.   They also have a fairly compliant population and a government generally ready to conduct testing and tracing.

Florida and Georgia are a bit early, but across the South cases and hospitalizations are moving higher even with citizens in the biggest cities (Atlanta, Miami and others) staying home.  For the USA it may be better for Georgia to see some deaths in June because if Georgia escapes than citizens will potentially ignore government mandates in November and December.   

FWIW the Piglet and Pooh cartoon doesn't really work for the USA.   That might be more applicable for South Korea or Taiwan.   Here in the USA 100,000 deaths (and counting) is a sign to me at least that we didn't do nearly enough as a country, especially in February.

[Farm93]

I don't believe in hindsight. The epidemiological model was almost universally accepted in mid-March, when SIP was promulgated. It likely did save lives, and performed a valuable service in public education. I"m not going to go back in time and question the lifeboat decision.

However, ten weeks have passed and we have actual, not theoretical, data points. In terms of making forward-going policy, the question of whether measures as extreme as SIP were necessary is natural in terms of what we do next. There are the examples of Sweden. Japan, and the two States Georgia and Florida, that did not go to those extremes, and have had experience that is in roughly the same ball park as those that did. That raises some natural issues. 

My own thought is that the education of the public has been pretty thorough. We will always have dissenters and oppositionists. That's the nature of American society and - in better times - one of its strengths. I think it's time to abandon the more drastic, draconian measures that have been in place, and open up completely, with a regulatory framework, e.g., masks required in indoor environments, six feet distancing in public places, and so on. I don't think we're going to get any more compliance than we already have. 

In case I'm not being clear, I consider the pushback of the 'don't-tread-on-me' element of American society as valuable, even if I don't agree with it entirely and its emphasis may be misguided. It leads to a constant review of conventional wisdom that is necessary and useful.

You gave four examples to back up your point and, at most, one applies.

To date, Sweden has ~30% more deaths per capita than the US.  Sweden is averaging roughly 2x the US's daily death rate right now.  No one who values human life should be following Sweden's example.

Japan has done better than the US--no one really knows why.

Florida and Georgia are seeing flat or growing numbers of cases.  Let's see where they stand in another few weeks.  And lets not forget that voluntary social distancing is probably a big factor here.  Just because they've "opened up" doesn't mean that virus numbers aren't being suppressed by people staying home.

And for Sweden the USA is not really the comparable metric.   Norway and Finland share a similar culture, climate, population density, etc. etc. 

Sweden has a per capita death rate that is 8X-10X of its neighbors.   Its neighbors see a death or two each day at this point while Sweden is running close to 100 deaths a day.  I think the idea that Sweden was an example that shelter in place was unnecessary, as GR implied, is about 3 weeks old.   At the time their citizens were loving life in street side cafes, but now many know they made a mistake as they are not very close to the coveted herd immunity.

Japan got away without doing a lot of mandatory items, but many in Tokyo, and around the country, wear masks almost 24/7 in the spring because of pollen.   They also have a fairly compliant population and a government generally ready to conduct testing and tracing.

Florida and Georgia are a bit early, but across the South cases and hospitalizations are moving higher even with citizens in the biggest cities (Atlanta, Miami and others) staying home.  For the USA it may be better for Georgia to see some deaths in June because if Georgia escapes than citizens will potentially ignore government mandates in November and December.   

FWIW the Piglet and Pooh cartoon doesn't really work for the USA.   That might be more applicable for South Korea or Taiwan.   Here in the USA 100,000 deaths (and counting) is a sign to me at least that we didn't do nearly enough as a country, especially in February.

[Genuine Realist]

I don't believe in hindsight. The epidemiological model was almost universally accepted in mid-March, when SIP was promulgated. It likely did save lives, and performed a valuable service in public education. I"m not going to go back in time and question the lifeboat decision.

However, ten weeks have passed and we have actual, not theoretical, data points. In terms of making forward-going policy, the question of whether measures as extreme as SIP were necessary is natural in terms of what we do next. There are the examples of Sweden. Japan, and the two States Georgia and Florida, that did not go to those extremes, and have had experience that is in roughly the same ball park as those that did. That raises some natural issues. 

My own thought is that the education of the public has been pretty thorough. We will always have dissenters and oppositionists. That's the nature of American society and - in better times - one of its strengths. I think it's time to abandon the more drastic, draconian measures that have been in place, and open up completely, with a regulatory framework, e.g., masks required in indoor environments, six feet distancing in public places, and so on. I don't think we're going to get any more compliance than we already have. 

In case I'm not being clear, I consider the pushback of the 'don't-tread-on-me' element of American society as valuable, even if I don't agree with it entirely and its emphasis may be misguided. It leads to a constant review of conventional wisdom that is necessary and useful.

You gave four examples to back up your point and, at most, one applies.

To date, Sweden has ~30% more deaths per capita than the US.  Sweden is averaging roughly 2x the US's daily death rate right now.  No one who values human life should be following Sweden's example.

Japan has done better than the US--no one really knows why.

Florida and Georgia are seeing flat or growing numbers of cases.  Let's see where they stand in another few weeks.  And lets not forget that voluntary social distancing is probably a big factor here.  Just because they've "opened up" doesn't mean that virus numbers aren't being suppressed by people staying home.

And for Sweden the USA is not really the comparable metric.   Norway and Finland share a similar culture, climate, population density, etc. etc. 

Sweden has a per capita death rate that is 8X-10X of its neighbors.   Its neighbors see a death or two each day at this point while Sweden is running close to 100 deaths a day.  I think the idea that Sweden was an example that shelter in place was unnecessary, as GR implied, is about 3 weeks old.   At the time their citizens were loving life in street side cafes, but now many know they made a mistake as they are not very close to the coveted herd immunity.

Japan got away without doing a lot of mandatory items, but many in Tokyo, and around the country, wear masks almost 24/7 in the spring because of pollen.   They also have a fairly compliant population and a government generally ready to conduct testing and tracing.

Florida and Georgia are a bit early, but across the South cases and hospitalizations are moving higher even with citizens in the biggest cities (Atlanta, Miami and others) staying home.  For the USA it may be better for Georgia to see some deaths in June because if Georgia escapes than citizens will potentially ignore government mandates in November and December.   

FWIW the Piglet and Pooh cartoon doesn't really work for the USA.   That might be more applicable for South Korea or Taiwan.   Here in the USA 100,000 deaths (and counting) is a sign to me at least that we didn't do nearly enough as a country, especially in February.

No one in the Western world did much in February, as I pointed out in the 'Timeline' post. That's what I mean by hindsight. Basically, February was a month spent on the learning curve.

I think I have recounted how my wife and I were in New York between February 21st and 24th. We attended five crowded Broadway productions in four days.  Every morning, I'd get up for breakfast and mosey down to a really nice place called Virgil's (highly recommended) and have a yogurt/fruitbowl for breakfast. I'm a much lighter sleeper than my wife and would kill time, for the hour or so until she woke and joined me, nursing a diet coke and watching the news. Very, VERY pleasant mornings, that I regret have passed. And . . . 

 . . .  there was literally NOTHING about the virus, except for growing concern about the Italian experience. It was maybe the fifth lead down. No one in the City was at all worried. This wasn't a case where there were iceberg warnings on all sides, and the Titanic sailing blithely along. These weren't even serious news items. There weren't a batch of other countries battening down the hatches, shouted warnings all around, and certain nations (the US among them) ignoring all of the signs. There weren't any warnings. 

When the history of these strange times is written, I think we'll find out that what happened is a critical mass of clinical and epidemiological experience coalesced around the first week of March. You can lament February, if you believe in precognition.

[Genuine Realist]

I don't believe in hindsight. The epidemiological model was almost universally accepted in mid-March, when SIP was promulgated. It likely did save lives, and performed a valuable service in public education. I"m not going to go back in time and question the lifeboat decision.

However, ten weeks have passed and we have actual, not theoretical, data points. In terms of making forward-going policy, the question of whether measures as extreme as SIP were necessary is natural in terms of what we do next. There are the examples of Sweden. Japan, and the two States Georgia and Florida, that did not go to those extremes, and have had experience that is in roughly the same ball park as those that did. That raises some natural issues. 

My own thought is that the education of the public has been pretty thorough. We will always have dissenters and oppositionists. That's the nature of American society and - in better times - one of its strengths. I think it's time to abandon the more drastic, draconian measures that have been in place, and open up completely, with a regulatory framework, e.g., masks required in indoor environments, six feet distancing in public places, and so on. I don't think we're going to get any more compliance than we already have. 

In case I'm not being clear, I consider the pushback of the 'don't-tread-on-me' element of American society as valuable, even if I don't agree with it entirely and its emphasis may be misguided. It leads to a constant review of conventional wisdom that is necessary and useful.

You gave four examples to back up your point and, at most, one applies.

To date, Sweden has ~30% more deaths per capita than the US.  Sweden is averaging roughly 2x the US's daily death rate right now.  No one who values human life should be following Sweden's example.

Japan has done better than the US--no one really knows why.

Florida and Georgia are seeing flat or growing numbers of cases.  Let's see where they stand in another few weeks.  And lets not forget that voluntary social distancing is probably a big factor here.  Just because they've "opened up" doesn't mean that virus numbers aren't being suppressed by people staying home.

And for Sweden the USA is not really the comparable metric.   Norway and Finland share a similar culture, climate, population density, etc. etc. 

Sweden has a per capita death rate that is 8X-10X of its neighbors.   Its neighbors see a death or two each day at this point while Sweden is running close to 100 deaths a day.  I think the idea that Sweden was an example that shelter in place was unnecessary, as GR implied, is about 3 weeks old.   At the time their citizens were loving life in street side cafes, but now many know they made a mistake as they are not very close to the coveted herd immunity.

Japan got away without doing a lot of mandatory items, but many in Tokyo, and around the country, wear masks almost 24/7 in the spring because of pollen.   They also have a fairly compliant population and a government generally ready to conduct testing and tracing.

Florida and Georgia are a bit early, but across the South cases and hospitalizations are moving higher even with citizens in the biggest cities (Atlanta, Miami and others) staying home.  For the USA it may be better for Georgia to see some deaths in June because if Georgia escapes than citizens will potentially ignore government mandates in November and December.   

FWIW the Piglet and Pooh cartoon doesn't really work for the USA.   That might be more applicable for South Korea or Taiwan.   Here in the USA 100,000 deaths (and counting) is a sign to me at least that we didn't do nearly enough as a country, especially in February.

No one in the Western world did much in February, as I pointed out in the 'Timeline' post. That's what I mean by hindsight. Basically, February was a month spent on the learning curve.

I think I have recounted how my wife and I were in New York between February 21st and 24th. We attended five crowded Broadway productions in four days.  Every morning, I'd get up for breakfast and mosey down to a really nice place called Virgil's (highly recommended) and have a yogurt/fruitbowl for breakfast. I'm a much lighter sleeper than my wife and would kill time, for the hour or so until she woke and joined me, nursing a diet coke and watching the news. Very, VERY pleasant mornings, that I regret have passed. And . . . 

 . . .  there was literally NOTHING about the virus, except for growing concern about the Italian experience. It was maybe the fifth lead down. No one in the City was at all worried. This wasn't a case where there were iceberg warnings on all sides, and the Titanic sailing blithely along. These weren't even serious news items. There weren't a batch of other countries battening down the hatches, shouted warnings all around, and certain nations (the US among them) ignoring all of the signs. There weren't any warnings. 

When the history of these strange times is written, I think we'll find out that what happened is a critical mass of clinical and epidemiological experience coalesced around the first week of March. You can lament February, if you believe in precognition.

[CardinalSagehen]

Based on the analysis I presented in this thread: https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=19758, the one week delay in implementing shelter in place orders cost 36,000 lives, which if you assign a value of a statistical life of $10 million, then the one week delay in putting shelter in place orders cost $360 billion dollars.
BC

Does the advanced average age of COVID-19 victims reduce the overall cost?  In this paper, the VSL for 60 year olds is pegged at $2.5 mms. to $3 mms., which would put the one-week delay at $90 billion to $108 billion.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w10199

The Bush administration tried to apply an age discount to the VSL in the early 2000's, but the move was met with fierce blowback and the administration backtracked.  So, as far as the government is concerned, all lives are valued equally.

That's not a comment on how it should be calculated, mind you.

BC

Even this NBER working paper stops its analysis at age 62, conveniently.  Nobody wants to talk about the economic value of, say, a 94 year-old in a nursing home. On average, that person doesn't work, consumes minimal goods and services (outside of healthcare), drains Medicare and doesn't pay much in taxes. (Granted, that person probably contributed to the system his/her whole life and might have helped save the world from tyranny.)

I hate that these thoughts even occur to me, but if we're talking solely about economic value going forward, it seems inaccurate not to place a negative value on some lives.  

This is not a statement on which policies I would support at all.  My parents are in their late seventies, and their lives are priceless to me.  To be clear, I do not want to live in a society that fails to take care of its elderly to a very significant degree.  I might call this "societal value" but not economic.  

Maybe the economic term I'm really looking for isn't "value" but "contribution".  Our legislators make hard trade-offs every day - lives are saved and destroyed all the time as a consequence of policy decisions.  If we (and by "we" I don't mean CardBoarders but public health officials and policymakers) need to talk about economic contribution to help make the most rational decisions and trade-offs, we can't go pussyfooting around the issue.  We should have a number that accurately represents the true economic contribution of lives saved, and then debate whether societal value ought to trump economic contribution and to what degree.  

This is a disease that tends to kill people with very low or even negative contribution to the economy. We should still spend trillions to save them, imho. But on the surface, just intuitively and perhaps ignorantly, I'm skeptical of an analysis suggesting that the economic effect of SIP is net positive. I agree with policies aimed at saving the most lives, but the fact remains that we are holding back the economic activity of young, productive people in order to save the lives of people that have relatively few years remaining.

[CardinalSagehen]

Based on the analysis I presented in this thread: https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=19758, the one week delay in implementing shelter in place orders cost 36,000 lives, which if you assign a value of a statistical life of $10 million, then the one week delay in putting shelter in place orders cost $360 billion dollars.
BC

Does the advanced average age of COVID-19 victims reduce the overall cost?  In this paper, the VSL for 60 year olds is pegged at $2.5 mms. to $3 mms., which would put the one-week delay at $90 billion to $108 billion.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w10199

The Bush administration tried to apply an age discount to the VSL in the early 2000's, but the move was met with fierce blowback and the administration backtracked.  So, as far as the government is concerned, all lives are valued equally.

That's not a comment on how it should be calculated, mind you.

BC

Even this NBER working paper stops its analysis at age 62, conveniently.  Nobody wants to talk about the economic value of, say, a 94 year-old in a nursing home. On average, that person doesn't work, consumes minimal goods and services (outside of healthcare), drains Medicare and doesn't pay much in taxes. (Granted, that person probably contributed to the system his/her whole life and might have helped save the world from tyranny.)

I hate that these thoughts even occur to me, but if we're talking solely about economic value going forward, it seems inaccurate not to place a negative value on some lives.  

This is not a statement on which policies I would support at all.  My parents are in their late seventies, and their lives are priceless to me.  To be clear, I do not want to live in a society that fails to take care of its elderly to a very significant degree.  I might call this "societal value" but not economic.  

Maybe the economic term I'm really looking for isn't "value" but "contribution".  Our legislators make hard trade-offs every day - lives are saved and destroyed all the time as a consequence of policy decisions.  If we (and by "we" I don't mean CardBoarders but public health officials and policymakers) need to talk about economic contribution to help make the most rational decisions and trade-offs, we can't go pussyfooting around the issue.  We should have a number that accurately represents the true economic contribution of lives saved, and then debate whether societal value ought to trump economic contribution and to what degree.  

This is a disease that tends to kill people with very low or even negative contribution to the economy. We should still spend trillions to save them, imho. But on the surface, just intuitively and perhaps ignorantly, I'm skeptical of an analysis suggesting that the economic effect of SIP is net positive. I agree with policies aimed at saving the most lives, but the fact remains that we are holding back the economic activity of young, productive people in order to save the lives of people that have relatively few years remaining.

[oregontim]

Based on the analysis I presented in this thread: https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=19758, the one week delay in implementing shelter in place orders cost 36,000 lives, which if you assign a value of a statistical life of $10 million, then the one week delay in putting shelter in place orders cost $360 billion dollars.
BC

Does the advanced average age of COVID-19 victims reduce the overall cost?  In this paper, the VSL for 60 year olds is pegged at $2.5 mms. to $3 mms., which would put the one-week delay at $90 billion to $108 billion.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w10199

The Bush administration tried to apply an age discount to the VSL in the early 2000's, but the move was met with fierce blowback and the administration backtracked.  So, as far as the government is concerned, all lives are valued equally.

That's not a comment on how it should be calculated, mind you.

BC

Ha! Memories of my time at the GSB, decades ago, when we were treated to number games that began with quantifying things that didn't lend themselves to numbers. Like the value of a life. Some things aren't meant to go into spreadsheets. And I say that as a lifelong lover of numbers and number games.

[oregontim]

Based on the analysis I presented in this thread: https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=19758, the one week delay in implementing shelter in place orders cost 36,000 lives, which if you assign a value of a statistical life of $10 million, then the one week delay in putting shelter in place orders cost $360 billion dollars.
BC

Does the advanced average age of COVID-19 victims reduce the overall cost?  In this paper, the VSL for 60 year olds is pegged at $2.5 mms. to $3 mms., which would put the one-week delay at $90 billion to $108 billion.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w10199

The Bush administration tried to apply an age discount to the VSL in the early 2000's, but the move was met with fierce blowback and the administration backtracked.  So, as far as the government is concerned, all lives are valued equally.

That's not a comment on how it should be calculated, mind you.

BC

Ha! Memories of my time at the GSB, decades ago, when we were treated to number games that began with quantifying things that didn't lend themselves to numbers. Like the value of a life. Some things aren't meant to go into spreadsheets. And I say that as a lifelong lover of numbers and number games.

[BostonCard]

No one in the Western world did much in February, as I pointed out in the 'Timeline' post. That's what I mean by hindsight. Basically, February was a month spent on the learning curve.

No one else in the western world is accountable to us (the American voters) and thus are irrelevant to the discussion.  Many of our leaders failed us, by pursuing ineffective policies (a travel ban) and failing to pursue policies that could have resulted in fewer deaths and less economic devastation.  And for that they ought to be held accountable.  "Well other leaders did much either" is not much of an excuse, as our taxpayer dollars don't pay for their salaries.  The Italians can hold Giuseppe Conte to account at the next Italian election in 2023, if the coalition lasts that long; Spanish voters will go to the poll in Dec. of that year (again, if Pedro Sanchez' party survives that long).  The British will get a chance to weigh in on Boris Johnson in 2024, and the Germans will get a chance to weigh on their own government next year (Angela Merkel will not be going up for re-election, however), and so on and so forth.  But since we are in the US, we get to weigh in on our own government, and in my opinion, it has been an epic failure, full stop.

BC

[BostonCard]

No one in the Western world did much in February, as I pointed out in the 'Timeline' post. That's what I mean by hindsight. Basically, February was a month spent on the learning curve.

No one else in the western world is accountable to us (the American voters) and thus are irrelevant to the discussion.  Many of our leaders failed us, by pursuing ineffective policies (a travel ban) and failing to pursue policies that could have resulted in fewer deaths and less economic devastation.  And for that they ought to be held accountable.  "Well other leaders did much either" is not much of an excuse, as our taxpayer dollars don't pay for their salaries.  The Italians can hold Giuseppe Conte to account at the next Italian election in 2023, if the coalition lasts that long; Spanish voters will go to the poll in Dec. of that year (again, if Pedro Sanchez' party survives that long).  The British will get a chance to weigh in on Boris Johnson in 2024, and the Germans will get a chance to weigh on their own government next year (Angela Merkel will not be going up for re-election, however), and so on and so forth.  But since we are in the US, we get to weigh in on our own government, and in my opinion, it has been an epic failure, full stop.

BC

[Genuine Realist]

No one in the Western world did much in February, as I pointed out in the 'Timeline' post. That's what I mean by hindsight. Basically, February was a month spent on the learning curve.

No one else in the western world is accountable to us (the American voters) and thus are irrelevant to the discussion.  Many of our leaders failed us, by pursuing ineffective policies (a travel ban) and failing to pursue policies that could have resulted in fewer deaths and less economic devastation.  And for that they ought to be held accountable.  "Well other leaders did much either" is not much of an excuse, as our taxpayer dollars don't pay for their salaries.  The Italians can hold Giuseppe Conte to account at the next Italian election in 2023, if the coalition lasts that long; Spanish voters will go to the poll in Dec. of that year (again, if Pedro Sanchez' party survives that long).  The British will get a chance to weigh in on Boris Johnson in 2024, and the Germans will get a chance to weigh on their own government next year (Angela Merkel will not be going up for re-election, however), and so on and so forth.  But since we are in the US, we get to weigh in on our own government, and in my opinion, it has been an epic failure, full stop.

BC

The experience of other countries is extremely relevant to understanding what was and wasn't known, and what the actual range of alternatives was. It's one thing for the Titanic to have sailed on with ice warnings being received every few hours. It's quite another to insist that it should have stopped all engines and hove to, on a calm night with nary a syllable about any kind of dangers.

This wasn't a situation in which the warning lights were flashing all over the world. In New York, on 2/24, the day I left, the thought of locking down the entire City was inconceivable - laughable. The public would have looked at Cuomo, or Trump, or whoever, as if the speaker had two heads. This persisted through the next week. Then came an avalanche of clinical information that changed everything. 

The speed was remarkable, in a matter of days. On March 3rd, I was planning to visit the gym the next day for my workout. I was looking forward to seeing the sequel to 'A Quiet Place' that Friday morning. Within 24 hours, I'd canceled the gym. One day later, the picture opening was canceled. Within a week, we were in SIP mode. This was only 10 days after I left a completely carefree New York. 

I am fully aware there are political implications here, that I don't wish to discuss. However, the overwhelming inference, almost the only inference you can draw from the striking universality of the response throughout Europe and the West, is that the gating factor here was the development of additional information about the virus. Whether it's Trump, or his Democratic opponents, or Macron, or Merkel, or whoever, they ALL behaved nearly identically. This includes various op-ed writers in the NYT, the Post, and others, who were more concerned about implicit xenophobia than a possible pandemic well into February. 

I've my own thoughts about the Presidential election. But If you're predicating your vote against Trump on the thought that any of his opponents would have done better . . . . I don't think that dog hunts. Most of them, on their record, would have done worse.

[Genuine Realist]

No one in the Western world did much in February, as I pointed out in the 'Timeline' post. That's what I mean by hindsight. Basically, February was a month spent on the learning curve.

No one else in the western world is accountable to us (the American voters) and thus are irrelevant to the discussion.  Many of our leaders failed us, by pursuing ineffective policies (a travel ban) and failing to pursue policies that could have resulted in fewer deaths and less economic devastation.  And for that they ought to be held accountable.  "Well other leaders did much either" is not much of an excuse, as our taxpayer dollars don't pay for their salaries.  The Italians can hold Giuseppe Conte to account at the next Italian election in 2023, if the coalition lasts that long; Spanish voters will go to the poll in Dec. of that year (again, if Pedro Sanchez' party survives that long).  The British will get a chance to weigh in on Boris Johnson in 2024, and the Germans will get a chance to weigh on their own government next year (Angela Merkel will not be going up for re-election, however), and so on and so forth.  But since we are in the US, we get to weigh in on our own government, and in my opinion, it has been an epic failure, full stop.

BC

The experience of other countries is extremely relevant to understanding what was and wasn't known, and what the actual range of alternatives was. It's one thing for the Titanic to have sailed on with ice warnings being received every few hours. It's quite another to insist that it should have stopped all engines and hove to, on a calm night with nary a syllable about any kind of dangers.

This wasn't a situation in which the warning lights were flashing all over the world. In New York, on 2/24, the day I left, the thought of locking down the entire City was inconceivable - laughable. The public would have looked at Cuomo, or Trump, or whoever, as if the speaker had two heads. This persisted through the next week. Then came an avalanche of clinical information that changed everything. 

The speed was remarkable, in a matter of days. On March 3rd, I was planning to visit the gym the next day for my workout. I was looking forward to seeing the sequel to 'A Quiet Place' that Friday morning. Within 24 hours, I'd canceled the gym. One day later, the picture opening was canceled. Within a week, we were in SIP mode. This was only 10 days after I left a completely carefree New York. 

I am fully aware there are political implications here, that I don't wish to discuss. However, the overwhelming inference, almost the only inference you can draw from the striking universality of the response throughout Europe and the West, is that the gating factor here was the development of additional information about the virus. Whether it's Trump, or his Democratic opponents, or Macron, or Merkel, or whoever, they ALL behaved nearly identically. This includes various op-ed writers in the NYT, the Post, and others, who were more concerned about implicit xenophobia than a possible pandemic well into February. 

I've my own thoughts about the Presidential election. But If you're predicating your vote against Trump on the thought that any of his opponents would have done better . . . . I don't think that dog hunts. Most of them, on their record, would have done worse.

[oregontim]

No one else in the western world is accountable to us (the American voters) and thus are irrelevant to the discussion.  Many of our leaders failed us, by pursuing ineffective policies (a travel ban) and failing to pursue policies that could have resulted in fewer deaths and less economic devastation.  And for that they ought to be held accountable. 

But since we are in the US, we get to weigh in on our own government, and in my opinion, it has been an epic failure, full stop.

BC

Yes! And let's not forget that our president didn't just fail to act. He aggressively obstructed action. He called it a hoax. He belittled the danger. He made it a political battle. He defended the Dow Jones instead of the citizens. He was not just neutral. We've been watching one of the greatest failures of leadership in modern history.

He was like Paul Revere riding around Boston shouting "No, they're not coming. Don't worry. It's all a hoax. Everybody go back to sleep."

[oregontim]

No one else in the western world is accountable to us (the American voters) and thus are irrelevant to the discussion.  Many of our leaders failed us, by pursuing ineffective policies (a travel ban) and failing to pursue policies that could have resulted in fewer deaths and less economic devastation.  And for that they ought to be held accountable. 

But since we are in the US, we get to weigh in on our own government, and in my opinion, it has been an epic failure, full stop.

BC

Yes! And let's not forget that our president didn't just fail to act. He aggressively obstructed action. He called it a hoax. He belittled the danger. He made it a political battle. He defended the Dow Jones instead of the citizens. He was not just neutral. We've been watching one of the greatest failures of leadership in modern history.

He was like Paul Revere riding around Boston shouting "No, they're not coming. Don't worry. It's all a hoax. Everybody go back to sleep."

[BostonCard]

No one in the Western world did much in February, as I pointed out in the 'Timeline' post. That's what I mean by hindsight. Basically, February was a month spent on the learning curve.

No one else in the western world is accountable to us (the American voters) and thus are irrelevant to the discussion.  Many of our leaders failed us, by pursuing ineffective policies (a travel ban) and failing to pursue policies that could have resulted in fewer deaths and less economic devastation.  And for that they ought to be held accountable.  "Well other leaders did much either" is not much of an excuse, as our taxpayer dollars don't pay for their salaries.  The Italians can hold Giuseppe Conte to account at the next Italian election in 2023, if the coalition lasts that long; Spanish voters will go to the poll in Dec. of that year (again, if Pedro Sanchez' party survives that long).  The British will get a chance to weigh in on Boris Johnson in 2024, and the Germans will get a chance to weigh on their own government next year (Angela Merkel will not be going up for re-election, however), and so on and so forth.  But since we are in the US, we get to weigh in on our own government, and in my opinion, it has been an epic failure, full stop.



BC

The experience of other countries is extremely relevant to understanding what was and wasn't known, and what the actual range of alternatives was. It's one thing for the Titanic to have sailed on with ice warnings being received every few hours. It's quite another to insist that it should have stopped all engines and hove to, on a calm night with nary a syllable about any kind of dangers.



This wasn't a situation in which the warning lights were flashing all over the world. In New York, on 2/24, the day I left, the thought of locking down the entire City was inconceivable - laughable. The public would have looked at Cuomo, or Trump, or whoever, as if the speaker had two heads. This persisted through the next week. Then came an avalanche of clinical information that changed everything. 



The speed was remarkable, in a matter of days. On March 3rd, I was planning to visit the gym the next day for my workout. I was looking forward to seeing the sequel to 'A Quiet Place' that Friday morning. Within 24 hours, I'd canceled the gym. One day later, the picture opening was canceled. Within a week, we were in SIP mode. This was only 10 days after I left a completely carefree New York. 



I am fully aware there are political implications here, that I don't wish to discuss. However, the overwhelming inference, almost the only inference you can draw from the striking universality of the response throughout Europe and the West, is that the gating factor here was the development of additional information about the virus. Whether it's Trump, or his Democratic opponents, or Macron, or Merkel, or whoever, they ALL behaved nearly identically. This includes various op-ed writers in the NYT, the Post, and others, who were more concerned about implicit xenophobia than a possible pandemic well into February. 



I've my own thoughts about the Presidential election. But If you're predicating your vote against Trump on the thought that any of his opponents would have done better . . . . I don't think that dog hunts. Most of them, on their record, would have done worse.

You are probably right about Trump's opponents. Hillary Clinton or Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio or Bernie Sanders may well have been much worse.  But Hillary Clinton, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, and Bernie Sanders are not president.  What actually happened is the only thing we have to evaluate, and what we have is a shitshow.

And for what it is worth, the difference in COVID-19 deaths between Germany (102/million) and the US (308/million) is threefold, even though Germany was right smack in the middle of the European pandemic.  Germany is down to ~500 new cases and ~50 deaths a day, while the US is still stuck at 20,000 new cases and 1000 to 1500 deaths per day.  Maybe having a competent leader in charge made a difference?

BC

[BostonCard]

No one in the Western world did much in February, as I pointed out in the 'Timeline' post. That's what I mean by hindsight. Basically, February was a month spent on the learning curve.

No one else in the western world is accountable to us (the American voters) and thus are irrelevant to the discussion.  Many of our leaders failed us, by pursuing ineffective policies (a travel ban) and failing to pursue policies that could have resulted in fewer deaths and less economic devastation.  And for that they ought to be held accountable.  "Well other leaders did much either" is not much of an excuse, as our taxpayer dollars don't pay for their salaries.  The Italians can hold Giuseppe Conte to account at the next Italian election in 2023, if the coalition lasts that long; Spanish voters will go to the poll in Dec. of that year (again, if Pedro Sanchez' party survives that long).  The British will get a chance to weigh in on Boris Johnson in 2024, and the Germans will get a chance to weigh on their own government next year (Angela Merkel will not be going up for re-election, however), and so on and so forth.  But since we are in the US, we get to weigh in on our own government, and in my opinion, it has been an epic failure, full stop.



BC

The experience of other countries is extremely relevant to understanding what was and wasn't known, and what the actual range of alternatives was. It's one thing for the Titanic to have sailed on with ice warnings being received every few hours. It's quite another to insist that it should have stopped all engines and hove to, on a calm night with nary a syllable about any kind of dangers.



This wasn't a situation in which the warning lights were flashing all over the world. In New York, on 2/24, the day I left, the thought of locking down the entire City was inconceivable - laughable. The public would have looked at Cuomo, or Trump, or whoever, as if the speaker had two heads. This persisted through the next week. Then came an avalanche of clinical information that changed everything. 



The speed was remarkable, in a matter of days. On March 3rd, I was planning to visit the gym the next day for my workout. I was looking forward to seeing the sequel to 'A Quiet Place' that Friday morning. Within 24 hours, I'd canceled the gym. One day later, the picture opening was canceled. Within a week, we were in SIP mode. This was only 10 days after I left a completely carefree New York. 



I am fully aware there are political implications here, that I don't wish to discuss. However, the overwhelming inference, almost the only inference you can draw from the striking universality of the response throughout Europe and the West, is that the gating factor here was the development of additional information about the virus. Whether it's Trump, or his Democratic opponents, or Macron, or Merkel, or whoever, they ALL behaved nearly identically. This includes various op-ed writers in the NYT, the Post, and others, who were more concerned about implicit xenophobia than a possible pandemic well into February. 



I've my own thoughts about the Presidential election. But If you're predicating your vote against Trump on the thought that any of his opponents would have done better . . . . I don't think that dog hunts. Most of them, on their record, would have done worse.

You are probably right about Trump's opponents. Hillary Clinton or Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio or Bernie Sanders may well have been much worse.  But Hillary Clinton, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, and Bernie Sanders are not president.  What actually happened is the only thing we have to evaluate, and what we have is a shitshow.

And for what it is worth, the difference in COVID-19 deaths between Germany (102/million) and the US (308/million) is threefold, even though Germany was right smack in the middle of the European pandemic.  Germany is down to ~500 new cases and ~50 deaths a day, while the US is still stuck at 20,000 new cases and 1000 to 1500 deaths per day.  Maybe having a competent leader in charge made a difference?

BC

[Goose]

And for what it is worth, the difference in COVID-19 deaths between Germany (102/million) and the US (308/million) is threefold, even though Germany was right smack in the middle of the European pandemic.  Germany is down to ~500 new cases and ~50 deaths a day, while the US is still stuck at 20,000 new cases and 1000 to 1500 deaths per day.  Maybe having a competent leader in charge made a difference?


BC

BC, I am almost certain that having a well-prepared health department in the German states, particularly Bavaria, made much more difference than anything the leaders did. The pattern we see in all these nations is that the ones with active adequately resourced public health departments (at all levels) have done much better than those who did not. These organizations did not require a decision from above to do their "normal" jobs, which allowed significant tracking and tracing right at the start. In nations like Taiwan and Korea it avoided having a full SIP. In Germany it didn't, but it certainly did mitigate the degree of community spread.

It is also true that as a nation the German people are much more compliant with the laws than the American people are. If they are told to SIP, they will. In the USA, people go to the beach. The USA seems unable to drop our new cases to essentially zero, unlike both Germany and China. China did it via a very strong quarantine with lots of teeth. Germany seems to have done it without that level of intervention. Even in the Bay Area counties, we see a disturbing plateau effect. Why? With re-opening the waters will just get muddier.

[Goose]

And for what it is worth, the difference in COVID-19 deaths between Germany (102/million) and the US (308/million) is threefold, even though Germany was right smack in the middle of the European pandemic.  Germany is down to ~500 new cases and ~50 deaths a day, while the US is still stuck at 20,000 new cases and 1000 to 1500 deaths per day.  Maybe having a competent leader in charge made a difference?


BC

BC, I am almost certain that having a well-prepared health department in the German states, particularly Bavaria, made much more difference than anything the leaders did. The pattern we see in all these nations is that the ones with active adequately resourced public health departments (at all levels) have done much better than those who did not. These organizations did not require a decision from above to do their "normal" jobs, which allowed significant tracking and tracing right at the start. In nations like Taiwan and Korea it avoided having a full SIP. In Germany it didn't, but it certainly did mitigate the degree of community spread.

It is also true that as a nation the German people are much more compliant with the laws than the American people are. If they are told to SIP, they will. In the USA, people go to the beach. The USA seems unable to drop our new cases to essentially zero, unlike both Germany and China. China did it via a very strong quarantine with lots of teeth. Germany seems to have done it without that level of intervention. Even in the Bay Area counties, we see a disturbing plateau effect. Why? With re-opening the waters will just get muddier.

[BostonCard]

The key in Germany is they tested early and they tested a lot.  The countries that struggled (Spain, Italy, the US) struggled because they were flying blind until lots of people started showing up in the hospital.  Italy was caught unawares as one of the first countries outside of China to be hit hard.  In the US, having a poorly developed and fractured public health response certainly didn't help, but the testing screw up compounded all the problems.

Spaniards and Italians are not exactly known for compliance and following government orders.  Their response was much too late, but when instituted was effective.  Italy had 584 cases and 117 deaths in the last 24 hours, Spain had 510 cases and 1(!) death.  And while the high death rate might have made them more willing to listen to their governments, UK has had similar death rates (plus news of their PM in the ICU) and is still struggling to get the epidemic under control (2013 new cases/412 new deaths).  I have a soft spot for Boris Johnson, but he has not dealt with the pandemic well; dithering at first whether to do a Swedish style response, then instituting the lockdown late, and then lifting it with the poorly defined slogan "stay alert!".

BC

[BostonCard]

The key in Germany is they tested early and they tested a lot.  The countries that struggled (Spain, Italy, the US) struggled because they were flying blind until lots of people started showing up in the hospital.  Italy was caught unawares as one of the first countries outside of China to be hit hard.  In the US, having a poorly developed and fractured public health response certainly didn't help, but the testing screw up compounded all the problems.

Spaniards and Italians are not exactly known for compliance and following government orders.  Their response was much too late, but when instituted was effective.  Italy had 584 cases and 117 deaths in the last 24 hours, Spain had 510 cases and 1(!) death.  And while the high death rate might have made them more willing to listen to their governments, UK has had similar death rates (plus news of their PM in the ICU) and is still struggling to get the epidemic under control (2013 new cases/412 new deaths).  I have a soft spot for Boris Johnson, but he has not dealt with the pandemic well; dithering at first whether to do a Swedish style response, then instituting the lockdown late, and then lifting it with the poorly defined slogan "stay alert!".

BC