10-08-2020, 03:21 PM
Any thoughts on this?
https://gbdeclaration.org/
https://gbdeclaration.org/
Quote:Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, professor at Stanford University Medical School, a physician, epidemiologist, health economist, and public health policy expert focusing on infectious diseases and vulnerable populations.
Quote:Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health.
Quote:Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, professor at Stanford University Medical School, a physician, epidemiologist, health economist, and public health policy expert focusing on infectious diseases and vulnerable populations.
Quote:Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health.
(10-08-2020, 10:08 PM)akiddoc Wrote: The assumption that we will ever have "herd" immunity from wild infection is not backed up by any data. We couldn't get it from wild Varicella. But we do have it from Varicella vaccine. I think it's more likely to occur with a vaccine than with their proposed method of going on with life as if nothing has changed, and with a lot (a lot) less death.Surely there's some flex here, between populations at obviously high risk (yours truly) and those at a very low level (my granddaughter).
(10-08-2020, 10:08 PM)akiddoc Wrote: The assumption that we will ever have "herd" immunity from wild infection is not backed up by any data. We couldn't get it from wild Varicella. But we do have it from Varicella vaccine. I think it's more likely to occur with a vaccine than with their proposed method of going on with life as if nothing has changed, and with a lot (a lot) less death.Surely there's some flex here, between populations at obviously high risk (yours truly) and those at a very low level (my granddaughter).
(10-10-2020, 05:50 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: I've concluded as long as everyone wears masks, limits their time indoors with others, and washes/sanitizes hands, we can manage virus without too many business closures.I have concluded this is a definite maybe. I am not sure where one can gather evidence that you are correct, because I am not of the opinion that the "everyone" condition has been met anywhere. I think at best you would have to substitute "enough people" for everyone, and then what is enough? I do think that we are doing lots of separate, uncontrolled experiments nationwide right now, and we will eventually settle into some condition where the most businesses possible are open for the compliance levels that we can get. At that point, you can decide if it is "too many" businesses being closed, but it won't matter, because that's what you get.
(10-10-2020, 05:50 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: I've concluded as long as everyone wears masks, limits their time indoors with others, and washes/sanitizes hands, we can manage virus without too many business closures.I have concluded this is a definite maybe. I am not sure where one can gather evidence that you are correct, because I am not of the opinion that the "everyone" condition has been met anywhere. I think at best you would have to substitute "enough people" for everyone, and then what is enough? I do think that we are doing lots of separate, uncontrolled experiments nationwide right now, and we will eventually settle into some condition where the most businesses possible are open for the compliance levels that we can get. At that point, you can decide if it is "too many" businesses being closed, but it won't matter, because that's what you get.
(10-08-2020, 10:40 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote:We have done nothing similar to what they did in most of Europe or Asia. And already Europe is getting a rather robust second wave of cases, so that's a very troubling sign that with COVID19 our second wave will be very tough. And I am sure our healthcare workers would like to see the USA try consistent policies at least for a few weeks before deciding that policies are hopeless.(10-08-2020, 10:08 PM)akiddoc Wrote: The assumption that we will ever have "herd" immunity from wild infection is not backed up by any data. We couldn't get it from wild Varicella. But we do have it from Varicella vaccine. I think it's more likely to occur with a vaccine than with their proposed method of going on with life as if nothing has changed, and with a lot (a lot) less death.Surely there's some flex here, between populations at obviously high risk (yours truly) and those at a very low level (my granddaughter).
My own thought is that some of the anti-masking nonsense is a reaction to severe lockdowns that are seen as overkill. The time may be coming to give the public guidance and let water seek its own level.
(10-08-2020, 10:40 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote:We have done nothing similar to what they did in most of Europe or Asia. And already Europe is getting a rather robust second wave of cases, so that's a very troubling sign that with COVID19 our second wave will be very tough. And I am sure our healthcare workers would like to see the USA try consistent policies at least for a few weeks before deciding that policies are hopeless.(10-08-2020, 10:08 PM)akiddoc Wrote: The assumption that we will ever have "herd" immunity from wild infection is not backed up by any data. We couldn't get it from wild Varicella. But we do have it from Varicella vaccine. I think it's more likely to occur with a vaccine than with their proposed method of going on with life as if nothing has changed, and with a lot (a lot) less death.Surely there's some flex here, between populations at obviously high risk (yours truly) and those at a very low level (my granddaughter).
My own thought is that some of the anti-masking nonsense is a reaction to severe lockdowns that are seen as overkill. The time may be coming to give the public guidance and let water seek its own level.
Quote:First and foremost, the declaration does not present the most important point right now, which is to say October 2020: By the middle of next year, and quite possibly sooner, the world will be in a much better position to combat Covid-19. The arrival of some mix of vaccines and therapeutics will improve the situation, so it makes sense to shift cases and infection risks into the future while being somewhat protective now. To allow large numbers of people today to die of Covid, in wealthy countries, is akin to charging the hill and taking casualties two days before the end of World War I.
Quote:First and foremost, the declaration does not present the most important point right now, which is to say October 2020: By the middle of next year, and quite possibly sooner, the world will be in a much better position to combat Covid-19. The arrival of some mix of vaccines and therapeutics will improve the situation, so it makes sense to shift cases and infection risks into the future while being somewhat protective now. To allow large numbers of people today to die of Covid, in wealthy countries, is akin to charging the hill and taking casualties two days before the end of World War I.
Quote:A controversial anti-lockdown declaration and petition whose principal authors and signatories from around the world include four Stanford University doctors has pulled its online signature list following a report that it included dozens of fake names.
Quote:A widely-circulated open letter calling on governments to pursue herd immunity is counting homeopaths, therapists and fake names among its "medical" signatories, leading to accusations that it falsely represents scientific support for the controversial position.
The Great Barrington Declaration, a letter organised by prominent advocates of herd immunity, claims to have been signed by more than 15,000 scientists and medical practitioners, as well as more than 150,000 members of the general public.
Yet Sky News found dozens of fake names on the list of medical signatories, which anyone can add to if they tick a box and enter a name. These included Dr. I.P. Freely, Dr. Person Fakename and Dr. Johnny Bananas, who listed himself as a "Dr of Hard Sums".
Quote:A controversial anti-lockdown declaration and petition whose principal authors and signatories from around the world include four Stanford University doctors has pulled its online signature list following a report that it included dozens of fake names.
Quote:A widely-circulated open letter calling on governments to pursue herd immunity is counting homeopaths, therapists and fake names among its "medical" signatories, leading to accusations that it falsely represents scientific support for the controversial position.
The Great Barrington Declaration, a letter organised by prominent advocates of herd immunity, claims to have been signed by more than 15,000 scientists and medical practitioners, as well as more than 150,000 members of the general public.
Yet Sky News found dozens of fake names on the list of medical signatories, which anyone can add to if they tick a box and enter a name. These included Dr. I.P. Freely, Dr. Person Fakename and Dr. Johnny Bananas, who listed himself as a "Dr of Hard Sums".
(10-15-2020, 02:04 PM)fullmetal Wrote: Dr. I.P. Freely...gotta love it. Gonna reference that if anyone trots this "declaration" out in a discussion.
(10-15-2020, 04:21 PM)teejers1 Wrote:(10-15-2020, 02:04 PM)fullmetal Wrote: Dr. I.P. Freely...gotta love it. Gonna reference that if anyone trots this "declaration" out in a discussion.
Sounds like the name tags seen at rush functions way back in the day:
Hugh Jorgan
Pat McGroin
Svink TerTite
And a host of other juvenile names . . .
(10-15-2020, 04:21 PM)teejers1 Wrote:(10-15-2020, 02:04 PM)fullmetal Wrote: Dr. I.P. Freely...gotta love it. Gonna reference that if anyone trots this "declaration" out in a discussion.
Sounds like the name tags seen at rush functions way back in the day:
Hugh Jorgan
Pat McGroin
Svink TerTite
And a host of other juvenile names . . .