[OutsiderFan]

Yesterday I got a call from my friend since Kindergarten and learned he and his SO got Covid in early October. They live in Santa Clara County, and both get significant outdoor exercise, but it's possible they were infected in Tahoe. He told me both of them were being extremely cautious and can't figure out where they got it, though he knows he got it from her. The only time they were "in the wild" and massless was an outside dinner in Tahoe with nobody especially near.

The woman who gets sinus infections couple times a year thought she had another one, not Covid, but then after she got a fever, tested and was positive. Then she had an accelerated heart beat and lost taste/smell. My friend presented no symptoms other than exhaustion before testing, but he also worked a 15 hour day and thought it was due to that. He only was tested because she was positive. He never would have known he had it and would have likely infected others if she wasn't tested. He too lost his taste/smell, but that was it.

Anyway, as we were talking, he told me he's been doing some research and learned something I hadn't heard yet that was a bit concerning. That is the possibility of the virus becoming endemic. This means there would be so much virus and so many strains of it that an effective vaccine won't be possible because there are too many variations of the virus. He compared it to the flu, and how there are so many flu strains that world health experts can only pick one to vaccinate against, and if they pick the wrong one, the flu shots won't be that effective. This explains why flu shot works sometimes and not others; if you are exposed to the flu your vaccine was intended to resist, it works. If you get exposed to different strain, you get sick.

His thrust was that if Covid becomes too prevalent, with too many mutations, an annual Covid vaccine would be needed just like the annual flu vaccine.  And for the same reasons, the Covid vaccine will never be 100% full proof. This would truly suck, and would also be something we could have prevented.

IOW, the herd immunity idea is even dumber than you thought, because every new infection increases number of mutations, which makes developing a one vaccine kills Covid that much more difficult. Scott Atlas isn't factoring this possible reality into his ill-conceived equation, is he? Anyway, the price tag for this pandemic has a lot higher to go, on multiple fronts, no matter what we do, but there are better ways than others to get it under control.

[OutsiderFan]

Yesterday I got a call from my friend since Kindergarten and learned he and his SO got Covid in early October. They live in Santa Clara County, and both get significant outdoor exercise, but it's possible they were infected in Tahoe. He told me both of them were being extremely cautious and can't figure out where they got it, though he knows he got it from her. The only time they were "in the wild" and massless was an outside dinner in Tahoe with nobody especially near.

The woman who gets sinus infections couple times a year thought she had another one, not Covid, but then after she got a fever, tested and was positive. Then she had an accelerated heart beat and lost taste/smell. My friend presented no symptoms other than exhaustion before testing, but he also worked a 15 hour day and thought it was due to that. He only was tested because she was positive. He never would have known he had it and would have likely infected others if she wasn't tested. He too lost his taste/smell, but that was it.

Anyway, as we were talking, he told me he's been doing some research and learned something I hadn't heard yet that was a bit concerning. That is the possibility of the virus becoming endemic. This means there would be so much virus and so many strains of it that an effective vaccine won't be possible because there are too many variations of the virus. He compared it to the flu, and how there are so many flu strains that world health experts can only pick one to vaccinate against, and if they pick the wrong one, the flu shots won't be that effective. This explains why flu shot works sometimes and not others; if you are exposed to the flu your vaccine was intended to resist, it works. If you get exposed to different strain, you get sick.

His thrust was that if Covid becomes too prevalent, with too many mutations, an annual Covid vaccine would be needed just like the annual flu vaccine.  And for the same reasons, the Covid vaccine will never be 100% full proof. This would truly suck, and would also be something we could have prevented.

IOW, the herd immunity idea is even dumber than you thought, because every new infection increases number of mutations, which makes developing a one vaccine kills Covid that much more difficult. Scott Atlas isn't factoring this possible reality into his ill-conceived equation, is he? Anyway, the price tag for this pandemic has a lot higher to go, on multiple fronts, no matter what we do, but there are better ways than others to get it under control.

[BostonCard]

That's not what "endemic" means.  Chicken pox was an endemic virus in the US (until the vaccine nearly drove it out), but the vaccine was nonetheless completely successful.  Endemic just means that the virus is locally prevalent and doesn't need to be re-imported from outside.  Long after the pandemic wanes (with or without a virus)  COVID-19 is almost certain to become endemic all over the world.  As long as there are susceptible individuals who can continue to transmit the virus, we will have endemic COVID-19.  The only way the virus doesn't become endemic is if vaccination is so successful that we manage to wipe out the virus, which has only been done with a handful of viruses ever.  

No vaccine is 100% "full [sic] proof", but many vaccines are effective enough to drive down the prevalence of the virus and engender herd immunity.  All viruses mutate, but that doesn't necessarily mean they escape vaccine immunogenicity.  This can happen for a number of other reasons as well, including waning immunity. Think about having to have a tetanus vaccine every 5 - 10 years, or the recent recommendation that adults get revaccinated for pertussis.

So far, there is little evidence that mutations are allowing the virus to escape immune surveillance, but this is a virus that has only existed for less than a year.  The virus will likely become endemic regardless; this does not necessarily mean that it will mutate enough to escape immune surveillance, or that a vaccine will not be effective.  A vaccine may not confer lifelong immunity (in fact, I don't expect it to), but that has nothing to do with the virus becoming seasonal and endemic.  It could well become seasonal for other reasons (less than 100% vaccine efficacy, people refusing to vaccinate, waning immunity).  Although of course it would have been preferable for the virus to be brought under control early so that it never had a chance to become endemic, that train seems to have left the station as soon as infected people started leaving Wuhan.  But we have managed to wipe out or nearly wipe out plenty of previously endemic viruses: smallpox, polio, measles (in the US), varicella zoster (chicken pox).

BC

[BostonCard]

That's not what "endemic" means.  Chicken pox was an endemic virus in the US (until the vaccine nearly drove it out), but the vaccine was nonetheless completely successful.  Endemic just means that the virus is locally prevalent and doesn't need to be re-imported from outside.  Long after the pandemic wanes (with or without a virus)  COVID-19 is almost certain to become endemic all over the world.  As long as there are susceptible individuals who can continue to transmit the virus, we will have endemic COVID-19.  The only way the virus doesn't become endemic is if vaccination is so successful that we manage to wipe out the virus, which has only been done with a handful of viruses ever.  

No vaccine is 100% "full [sic] proof", but many vaccines are effective enough to drive down the prevalence of the virus and engender herd immunity.  All viruses mutate, but that doesn't necessarily mean they escape vaccine immunogenicity.  This can happen for a number of other reasons as well, including waning immunity. Think about having to have a tetanus vaccine every 5 - 10 years, or the recent recommendation that adults get revaccinated for pertussis.

So far, there is little evidence that mutations are allowing the virus to escape immune surveillance, but this is a virus that has only existed for less than a year.  The virus will likely become endemic regardless; this does not necessarily mean that it will mutate enough to escape immune surveillance, or that a vaccine will not be effective.  A vaccine may not confer lifelong immunity (in fact, I don't expect it to), but that has nothing to do with the virus becoming seasonal and endemic.  It could well become seasonal for other reasons (less than 100% vaccine efficacy, people refusing to vaccinate, waning immunity).  Although of course it would have been preferable for the virus to be brought under control early so that it never had a chance to become endemic, that train seems to have left the station as soon as infected people started leaving Wuhan.  But we have managed to wipe out or nearly wipe out plenty of previously endemic viruses: smallpox, polio, measles (in the US), varicella zoster (chicken pox).

BC