[M T]

Someone please correct if they are not facts:

- The Biden Transition has seen no vaccine distribution plan being worked on by the federal government now.

I suggest you see the 42:30 mark in the Nov. 24 OWS briefing.

[M T]

Someone please correct if they are not facts:

- The Biden Transition has seen no vaccine distribution plan being worked on by the federal government now.

I suggest you see the 42:30 mark in the Nov. 24 OWS briefing.

[OutsiderFan]

Someone please correct if they are not facts:

- The Biden Transition has seen no vaccine distribution plan being worked on by the federal government now.

I suggest you see the 42:30 mark in the Nov. 24 OWS briefing.

So it appears there is no federal distribution plan. It looks like there is a plan to send to states, and then they distribute however they want.  Maybe I'm parsing terms too much, but that doesn't sound like a federal distribution plan to me.

My idea of a federal distribution plan would be "this is where the vaccine is going, this is who is getting it, and this is where it is being distributed, coordinated at the Federal level.  This would give command and control to Federal authorities, not individual states.  To me, this is why it makes sense for Federal government (FEMA) to be the buyer of the vaccine for all states, and ship it to them  at no cost to anyone but the Federal government. If the U.S. owns the vaccines, it can dictate the distribution terms and manage all facets of the distribution, with tracking of who has been vaccinated and who hasn't.

[OutsiderFan]

Someone please correct if they are not facts:

- The Biden Transition has seen no vaccine distribution plan being worked on by the federal government now.

I suggest you see the 42:30 mark in the Nov. 24 OWS briefing.

So it appears there is no federal distribution plan. It looks like there is a plan to send to states, and then they distribute however they want.  Maybe I'm parsing terms too much, but that doesn't sound like a federal distribution plan to me.

My idea of a federal distribution plan would be "this is where the vaccine is going, this is who is getting it, and this is where it is being distributed, coordinated at the Federal level.  This would give command and control to Federal authorities, not individual states.  To me, this is why it makes sense for Federal government (FEMA) to be the buyer of the vaccine for all states, and ship it to them  at no cost to anyone but the Federal government. If the U.S. owns the vaccines, it can dictate the distribution terms and manage all facets of the distribution, with tracking of who has been vaccinated and who hasn't.

[Genuine Realist]

Someone please correct if they are not facts:

- The Biden Transition has seen no vaccine distribution plan being worked on by the federal government now.

I suggest you see the 42:30 mark in the Nov. 24 OWS briefing.

So it appears there is no federal distribution plan. It looks like there is a plan to send to states, and then they distribute however they want.  Maybe I'm parsing terms too much, but that doesn't sound like a federal distribution plan to me.

My idea of a federal distribution plan would be "this is where the vaccine is going, this is who is getting it, and this is where it is being distributed, coordinated at the Federal level.  This would give command and control to Federal authorities, not individual states.  To me, this is why it makes sense for Federal government (FEMA) to be the buyer of the vaccine for all states, and ship it to them  at no cost to anyone but the Federal government. If the U.S. owns the vaccines, it can dictate the distribution terms and manage all facets of the distribution, with tracking of who has been vaccinated and who hasn't.

By the nature of our federated government, a Federal distribution plan would probably end at the State level. The priorities of Montana and New York are doubtless substantially different.

[Genuine Realist]

Someone please correct if they are not facts:

- The Biden Transition has seen no vaccine distribution plan being worked on by the federal government now.

I suggest you see the 42:30 mark in the Nov. 24 OWS briefing.

So it appears there is no federal distribution plan. It looks like there is a plan to send to states, and then they distribute however they want.  Maybe I'm parsing terms too much, but that doesn't sound like a federal distribution plan to me.

My idea of a federal distribution plan would be "this is where the vaccine is going, this is who is getting it, and this is where it is being distributed, coordinated at the Federal level.  This would give command and control to Federal authorities, not individual states.  To me, this is why it makes sense for Federal government (FEMA) to be the buyer of the vaccine for all states, and ship it to them  at no cost to anyone but the Federal government. If the U.S. owns the vaccines, it can dictate the distribution terms and manage all facets of the distribution, with tracking of who has been vaccinated and who hasn't.

By the nature of our federated government, a Federal distribution plan would probably end at the State level. The priorities of Montana and New York are doubtless substantially different.

[OutsiderFan]

Someone please correct if they are not facts:

- The Biden Transition has seen no vaccine distribution plan being worked on by the federal government now.

I suggest you see the 42:30 mark in the Nov. 24 OWS briefing.

So it appears there is no federal distribution plan. It looks like there is a plan to send to states, and then they distribute however they want.  Maybe I'm parsing terms too much, but that doesn't sound like a federal distribution plan to me.

My idea of a federal distribution plan would be "this is where the vaccine is going, this is who is getting it, and this is where it is being distributed, coordinated at the Federal level.  This would give command and control to Federal authorities, not individual states.  To me, this is why it makes sense for Federal government (FEMA) to be the buyer of the vaccine for all states, and ship it to them  at no cost to anyone but the Federal government. If the U.S. owns the vaccines, it can dictate the distribution terms and manage all facets of the distribution, with tracking of who has been vaccinated and who hasn't.

By the nature of our federated government, a Federal distribution plan would probably end at the State level. The priorities of Montana and New York are doubtless substantially different.

I don't know if that applies in the current situation.  It's a national emergency. That would imply national response. If FEMA is ordering the vaccines (as should be the case) and U.S. Gov is paying for it (as should be the case), then federal government should decide how and when it is distributed and track distribution at a granular level. This doesn't mean there wouldn't be state and local partners involved in the planning and execution.  It would just mean the coordination of it all would happen at a federal level.

[OutsiderFan]

Someone please correct if they are not facts:

- The Biden Transition has seen no vaccine distribution plan being worked on by the federal government now.

I suggest you see the 42:30 mark in the Nov. 24 OWS briefing.

So it appears there is no federal distribution plan. It looks like there is a plan to send to states, and then they distribute however they want.  Maybe I'm parsing terms too much, but that doesn't sound like a federal distribution plan to me.

My idea of a federal distribution plan would be "this is where the vaccine is going, this is who is getting it, and this is where it is being distributed, coordinated at the Federal level.  This would give command and control to Federal authorities, not individual states.  To me, this is why it makes sense for Federal government (FEMA) to be the buyer of the vaccine for all states, and ship it to them  at no cost to anyone but the Federal government. If the U.S. owns the vaccines, it can dictate the distribution terms and manage all facets of the distribution, with tracking of who has been vaccinated and who hasn't.

By the nature of our federated government, a Federal distribution plan would probably end at the State level. The priorities of Montana and New York are doubtless substantially different.

I don't know if that applies in the current situation.  It's a national emergency. That would imply national response. If FEMA is ordering the vaccines (as should be the case) and U.S. Gov is paying for it (as should be the case), then federal government should decide how and when it is distributed and track distribution at a granular level. This doesn't mean there wouldn't be state and local partners involved in the planning and execution.  It would just mean the coordination of it all would happen at a federal level.

[Goose]

I don't think a "national distribution plan" would be possible. The federal government doesn't have the staff to actually do it themselves. However, it would be possible for the Federal Government to require a State to submit a plan to distribute the vaccine inside the State before it released any vaccine to the State. In fact, I think that was the case. However, how strictly the Federal Government dealt with the submitted plans is the issue. It would have been prudent to require that plan in August or so and require each State to validate that it could execute the plan as written. Those steps did not happen, AFAIK, and that is the issue.

[Goose]

I don't think a "national distribution plan" would be possible. The federal government doesn't have the staff to actually do it themselves. However, it would be possible for the Federal Government to require a State to submit a plan to distribute the vaccine inside the State before it released any vaccine to the State. In fact, I think that was the case. However, how strictly the Federal Government dealt with the submitted plans is the issue. It would have been prudent to require that plan in August or so and require each State to validate that it could execute the plan as written. Those steps did not happen, AFAIK, and that is the issue.

[OutsiderFan]

I don't think a "national distribution plan" would be possible. The federal government doesn't have the staff to actually do it themselves. However, it would be possible for the Federal Government to require a State to submit a plan to distribute the vaccine inside the State before it released any vaccine to the State. In fact, I think that was the case. However, how strictly the Federal Government dealt with the submitted plans is the issue. It would have been prudent to require that plan in August or so and require each State to validate that it could execute the plan as written. Those steps did not happen, AFAIK, and that is the issue.

I really wish we knew the details of the current plan, and the transition team's. But this sheds some light that we are not in a very good place:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1336392777022705665[/tweet]

[OutsiderFan]

I don't think a "national distribution plan" would be possible. The federal government doesn't have the staff to actually do it themselves. However, it would be possible for the Federal Government to require a State to submit a plan to distribute the vaccine inside the State before it released any vaccine to the State. In fact, I think that was the case. However, how strictly the Federal Government dealt with the submitted plans is the issue. It would have been prudent to require that plan in August or so and require each State to validate that it could execute the plan as written. Those steps did not happen, AFAIK, and that is the issue.

I really wish we knew the details of the current plan, and the transition team's. But this sheds some light that we are not in a very good place:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1336392777022705665[/tweet]

[M T]

Sigh... Politics never ends, does it?

[M T]

Sigh... Politics never ends, does it?

[OutsiderFan]

Sigh... Politics never ends, does it?

I just want the truth. What is the status? What is the plan? Is there evidence the proposed plans will work? 

If Biden says we are going to face a big delay getting vaccines rolled out unless Congress acts, I have no reason to doubt him. I don't know what means specifically, but I assume it means funding for buying vaccines, distributing them, and paying for staff to put them in arms.

[OutsiderFan]

Sigh... Politics never ends, does it?

I just want the truth. What is the status? What is the plan? Is there evidence the proposed plans will work? 

If Biden says we are going to face a big delay getting vaccines rolled out unless Congress acts, I have no reason to doubt him. I don't know what means specifically, but I assume it means funding for buying vaccines, distributing them, and paying for staff to put them in arms.

[BostonCard]

Sigh... Politics never ends, does it?

Is there evidence the proposed plans will work? 

Don't you need to distribute the vaccines to see if the plans will work?  As Mike Tyson once said, "Everybody has a plan until they're punched in the mouth".  We will know soon enough.

BC

[BostonCard]

Sigh... Politics never ends, does it?

Is there evidence the proposed plans will work? 

Don't you need to distribute the vaccines to see if the plans will work?  As Mike Tyson once said, "Everybody has a plan until they're punched in the mouth".  We will know soon enough.

BC

[dabigv13]

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1336456776162529280?s=20[/tweet]

I support all this. But take note of the number- 100 million is how much we have confirmed from Moderna and Pfizer.

Slaoui is talking about ending the pandemic by the spring, and Biden is setting more realistic expectations. It seems clear from the last few days of news that there will not be large amounts of mRNA vaccine coming down the pipeline soon beyond our initial orders. And since we don't know when or if other candidates will come to market in large numbers soon, we should not set that expectation. 

Here's just one cause for concern- Novavax, which has a pretty cool design that has attracted positive attention from scientists, has repeatedly been delaying the start of their Phase 3 trial because of manufacturing issues. If they can't quickly scale production to tens of thousands, seems like bad portent for making many millions anytime soon.

So we are relying on the adenovirus vaccines. Maybe they will get FDA approval soon, but it's certainly not the slam dunk the mRNA ones look to be. If they work and are safe, then great because they are probably easier to manufacture in large doses, at least if we take the manufacturers on their word based on how many orders they've taken.

[dabigv13]

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1336456776162529280?s=20[/tweet]

I support all this. But take note of the number- 100 million is how much we have confirmed from Moderna and Pfizer.

Slaoui is talking about ending the pandemic by the spring, and Biden is setting more realistic expectations. It seems clear from the last few days of news that there will not be large amounts of mRNA vaccine coming down the pipeline soon beyond our initial orders. And since we don't know when or if other candidates will come to market in large numbers soon, we should not set that expectation. 

Here's just one cause for concern- Novavax, which has a pretty cool design that has attracted positive attention from scientists, has repeatedly been delaying the start of their Phase 3 trial because of manufacturing issues. If they can't quickly scale production to tens of thousands, seems like bad portent for making many millions anytime soon.

So we are relying on the adenovirus vaccines. Maybe they will get FDA approval soon, but it's certainly not the slam dunk the mRNA ones look to be. If they work and are safe, then great because they are probably easier to manufacture in large doses, at least if we take the manufacturers on their word based on how many orders they've taken.

[Goose]

So we are relying on the adenovirus vaccines. Maybe they will get FDA approval soon, but it's certainly not the slam dunk the mRNA ones look to be. If they work and are safe, then great because they are probably easier to manufacture in large doses, at least if we take the manufacturers on their word based on how many orders they've taken.

I guess I am not totally convinced the adenovirus vaccines are easier to manufacture. As I understand it they require cell culture which can be a rate limiting step. I believe the mRNA vaccines are all "synthetic", which should be faster, or at least can be if the facilities are in place. Caveat, I know virtually nothing about how either are actually made. Certainly both could be subject to supply chain issues we know nothing about ATM. Anybody with real info please feel free to set me (us) straight.

[Goose]

So we are relying on the adenovirus vaccines. Maybe they will get FDA approval soon, but it's certainly not the slam dunk the mRNA ones look to be. If they work and are safe, then great because they are probably easier to manufacture in large doses, at least if we take the manufacturers on their word based on how many orders they've taken.

I guess I am not totally convinced the adenovirus vaccines are easier to manufacture. As I understand it they require cell culture which can be a rate limiting step. I believe the mRNA vaccines are all "synthetic", which should be faster, or at least can be if the facilities are in place. Caveat, I know virtually nothing about how either are actually made. Certainly both could be subject to supply chain issues we know nothing about ATM. Anybody with real info please feel free to set me (us) straight.

[dabigv13]

Just got some info from our hospital leadership on our distribution plan. Still no idea from the government when or how many doses we may get. We bought a new ultracold freezer, which by itself interestingly could hold most of the initial distribution California has in hand now (327k doses). 

Newsom said today California could get 2 million more doses between Moderna and Pfizer by the end of the month.

https://abc7.com/california-covid-update...om/8588552

Considering California has ~12% of the US population, this seems to indicate either the US is not getting 40 million doses out in December to states, or that California is getting shafted out more than 50% of the doses they should get, which would be ~4.8 million if distributing equally by population to the states.

---

This article from Politico is very comprehensive on the current state of play in the US. The US needs everything to go right to avoid a "vaccine cliff" in the spring.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/08...age-443839

[dabigv13]

Just got some info from our hospital leadership on our distribution plan. Still no idea from the government when or how many doses we may get. We bought a new ultracold freezer, which by itself interestingly could hold most of the initial distribution California has in hand now (327k doses). 

Newsom said today California could get 2 million more doses between Moderna and Pfizer by the end of the month.

https://abc7.com/california-covid-update...om/8588552

Considering California has ~12% of the US population, this seems to indicate either the US is not getting 40 million doses out in December to states, or that California is getting shafted out more than 50% of the doses they should get, which would be ~4.8 million if distributing equally by population to the states.

---

This article from Politico is very comprehensive on the current state of play in the US. The US needs everything to go right to avoid a "vaccine cliff" in the spring.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/08...age-443839

[dabigv13]

Good news if true. Moderna could start supplying more doses beyond the initial 100m in April.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...alls-short

This would avert or lessen the vaccine cliff possibility if other vaccines do not get approval or do not scale manufacturing well. The Biden admin should tell Moderna they want all the doses they can get. If they end up not needing them, give em to other countries that do.

[dabigv13]

Good news if true. Moderna could start supplying more doses beyond the initial 100m in April.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...alls-short

This would avert or lessen the vaccine cliff possibility if other vaccines do not get approval or do not scale manufacturing well. The Biden admin should tell Moderna they want all the doses they can get. If they end up not needing them, give em to other countries that do.

[Hurlburt88]

and on the negative side I read this morning that Sanofi GSK vaccine delayed about a half year because it needs tweaking after initial tests shows weak immunity responses in the 50+ age group.   This was being counted on in mid to late spring, and now targeted for 4Q.   I believe WSJ is my source on this.

[Hurlburt88]

and on the negative side I read this morning that Sanofi GSK vaccine delayed about a half year because it needs tweaking after initial tests shows weak immunity responses in the 50+ age group.   This was being counted on in mid to late spring, and now targeted for 4Q.   I believe WSJ is my source on this.

[M T]

and on the negative side I read this morning that Sanofi GSK vaccine delayed about a half year because it needs tweaking after initial tests shows weak immunity responses in the 50+ age group.   This was being counted on in mid to late spring, and now targeted for 4Q.   I believe WSJ is my source on this.

Thankfully, the shots on goal concept doesn't require 100% shooting percentage.

I wonder about any trials that have to happen in the new year.  Who is going to sign up for a trail and not take a already-proven-effective vaccine when their chance happens?   That's not to say people won't sign up, but they may exit before the end.

[M T]

and on the negative side I read this morning that Sanofi GSK vaccine delayed about a half year because it needs tweaking after initial tests shows weak immunity responses in the 50+ age group.   This was being counted on in mid to late spring, and now targeted for 4Q.   I believe WSJ is my source on this.

Thankfully, the shots on goal concept doesn't require 100% shooting percentage.

I wonder about any trials that have to happen in the new year.  Who is going to sign up for a trail and not take a already-proven-effective vaccine when their chance happens?   That's not to say people won't sign up, but they may exit before the end.

[dabigv13]

Sanofi and Novavax probably won't make an appreciable dent in the US, unless for some reason we start to see rare side effects in the mRNA vaccines in the real world that cause their use to be limited or withdrawn.

[dabigv13]

Sanofi and Novavax probably won't make an appreciable dent in the US, unless for some reason we start to see rare side effects in the mRNA vaccines in the real world that cause their use to be limited or withdrawn.

[Goose]

It would appear that the USA is relying on a couple of vaccines that are still awaiting phase III results.
https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/covi...oal-slaoui
Astrazeneca already has some issues. We are awaiting the results of their USA trail, as the two other trials produced results that probably wouldn't yield an EUA (as I understand the current situation). Hopefully the J & J vaccine will come out "clean" and effective.

[Goose]

It would appear that the USA is relying on a couple of vaccines that are still awaiting phase III results.
https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/covi...oal-slaoui
Astrazeneca already has some issues. We are awaiting the results of their USA trail, as the two other trials produced results that probably wouldn't yield an EUA (as I understand the current situation). Hopefully the J & J vaccine will come out "clean" and effective.

[BostonCard]

and on the negative side I read this morning that Sanofi GSK vaccine delayed about a half year because it needs tweaking after initial tests shows weak immunity responses in the 50+ age group.   This was being counted on in mid to late spring, and now targeted for 4Q.   I believe WSJ is my source on this.

Thankfully, the shots on goal concept doesn't require 100% shooting percentage.

I wonder about any trials that have to happen in the new year.  Who is going to sign up for a trail and not take a already-proven-effective vaccine when their chance happens?   That's not to say people won't sign up, but they may exit before the end.

They may run the trials outside the US.

BC

[BostonCard]

and on the negative side I read this morning that Sanofi GSK vaccine delayed about a half year because it needs tweaking after initial tests shows weak immunity responses in the 50+ age group.   This was being counted on in mid to late spring, and now targeted for 4Q.   I believe WSJ is my source on this.

Thankfully, the shots on goal concept doesn't require 100% shooting percentage.

I wonder about any trials that have to happen in the new year.  Who is going to sign up for a trail and not take a already-proven-effective vaccine when their chance happens?   That's not to say people won't sign up, but they may exit before the end.

They may run the trials outside the US.

BC

[dabigv13]

Looks like next week I will be working in the COVID ICU, and possibly getting a vaccine. Hopefully the latter before the former!

[dabigv13]

Looks like next week I will be working in the COVID ICU, and possibly getting a vaccine. Hopefully the latter before the former!

[Goose]

Looks like next week I will be working in the COVID ICU, and possibly getting a vaccine. Hopefully the latter before the former!

Hopefully you would get the 10 days or so to build immunity, but I am going to guess it won't be done that way.

[Goose]

Looks like next week I will be working in the COVID ICU, and possibly getting a vaccine. Hopefully the latter before the former!

Hopefully you would get the 10 days or so to build immunity, but I am going to guess it won't be done that way.