(12-07-2020, 07:44 AM)DocSavage87 Wrote: At our prevalence, not sure how much contact tracing works in the general case but could still be useful in smaller bubbles like sports teams, etc. This was an interesting tweet thread about the different ways of contact tracing and an analysis of a S Korea outbreak:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/kj_seung/status/1335600971666378752?s=20[/tweet]
Thanks for posting the link. I think K J Seung's "lessons" are very important to absorb, particularly lesson #2
Quote:Lesson 2: You can test contacts too quickly and miss a case in the incubation period. Multiple employees were neg initially but ended up testing positive later (including #2). Multiple rounds of testing will be needed when dealing with a large outbreak.
There has been lots of back and forth on this board about testing contacts, but this is the simple truth, as much as we wish it were otherwise. Contacts have to quarantine. A single negative test will never be definitive until near the end of the quarantine period.
I also really liked lesson 5. As you point out, contact tracing probably isn't going to help us much in the "general" population right now, but in subsets thereof it can be valuable.