[Mick]

In the past five months, nearly 7.8 million Americans have fallen into poverty, 2.3 million of them are children under 17.  Poverty rate is now 11.7%, up 2.4% since June. Nearly 40% of active duty military families are seeking food support.  The drastic fall is more than double the worst recorded since poverty rates started being recorded nearly 60 years ago.  

https://www.greenwichtime.com/business/a...807427.php

https://dnyuz.com/2020/12/16/pandemic-le...ssistance/

[Mick]

In the past five months, nearly 7.8 million Americans have fallen into poverty, 2.3 million of them are children under 17.  Poverty rate is now 11.7%, up 2.4% since June. Nearly 40% of active duty military families are seeking food support.  The drastic fall is more than double the worst recorded since poverty rates started being recorded nearly 60 years ago.  

https://www.greenwichtime.com/business/a...807427.php

https://dnyuz.com/2020/12/16/pandemic-le...ssistance/

[Farm93]

In the past five months, nearly 7.8 million Americans have fallen into poverty, 2.3 million of them are children under 17.  Poverty rate is now 11.7%, up 2.4% since June.  The drastic fall is more than double the worst recorded since poverty rates started being recorded nearly 60 years ago.  

https://www.greenwichtime.com/business/a...807427.php

Going to get a lot worse before it gets better, but it should get better soon, at least for some.

Production is starting to roar in Asia so there will be lots of goods to buy for the wealthiest Americans, once they get vaccinated.   The large companies that survive will be rolling in revenue soon enough, and will be able to find lots of available workers at low rates too.   

The poverty and unemployment could take a lot longer to recover. 
Lots of industries will be changed forever, but all of that is trivial compared to those that have lost loved ones during this pandemic.  
Everyone please stay safe during this holiday season.

[Farm93]

In the past five months, nearly 7.8 million Americans have fallen into poverty, 2.3 million of them are children under 17.  Poverty rate is now 11.7%, up 2.4% since June.  The drastic fall is more than double the worst recorded since poverty rates started being recorded nearly 60 years ago.  

https://www.greenwichtime.com/business/a...807427.php

Going to get a lot worse before it gets better, but it should get better soon, at least for some.

Production is starting to roar in Asia so there will be lots of goods to buy for the wealthiest Americans, once they get vaccinated.   The large companies that survive will be rolling in revenue soon enough, and will be able to find lots of available workers at low rates too.   

The poverty and unemployment could take a lot longer to recover. 
Lots of industries will be changed forever, but all of that is trivial compared to those that have lost loved ones during this pandemic.  
Everyone please stay safe during this holiday season.

[teejers1]

In the past five months, nearly 7.8 million Americans have fallen into poverty, 2.3 million of them are children under 17.  Poverty rate is now 11.7%, up 2.4% since June.  Nearly 40% of active duty military families are seeking food support.  The drastic fall is more than double the worst recorded since poverty rates started being recorded nearly 60 years ago.  

https://www.greenwichtime.com/business/a...807427.php

https://dnyuz.com/2020/12/16/pandemic-le...ssistance/

Mick, you're not changing any minds here.  Plus, the ones who favored SiP (and maybe still do) have the fallback position that "those poverty numbers would be much less bad if we had just taken our medicine early for a longer time" - which makes sense, in theory.  But really, given the complete failure of track and trace everywhere in the USA (with possible exception of pro sports teams), I doubt the US ever could have really gotten this thing under control in any meaningful way.  The US was destined to be stumble through, fits and starts, see what works and doesn't work and hope to learn from trial and error.  And hope to stave off crippling damage until a vaccine combatted the virus.

And this leads to me to a broader point:  has the US learned anything from this (ongoing) fiasco?  I hope so.  But I'm not sure.  Given that there will likely be another pandemic in most of our lifetimes, it would be nice to have the infrastructure to respond semi-quickly in better shape - even if that means funding bureaucrats that do very little for years at a time (isn't there some of that going on already, anyway)?  Maybe folks will more easily embrace masks and social distancing.  Or maybe folks will just assume (perhaps incorrectly) that all the US needs to do is better isolate/protect the vulnerable/older population and only take those measures . . . when the next virus may have a completely different damage profile.

And despite the death totals, there remains a colorable argument as to whether the economic shut down was "worth it," particularly given numbers that Mick posts in these parts.  I know most all folks here reject that out of hand, but this board is not a representation of the country at large.

The whole thing is pretty mind-numbing.  And at this point, I've resigned my "hopes" (such as they are) to (i) continuing to be smart/not stupid, and (ii) plugging along with vaccine distribution - and then see where the numbers are in 2 weeks, 1 month, 2 months, etc.  Hopefully headed in the right direction.  Hopefully noticeably.

P.S.  The SCC Dashboard for LTCF was updated today.  To say there has been a big spike in cases there would be an understatement.  Since November 29, there have been 459 (!) positive cases reported at LTCFs.  That is ridiculous.  And again, I bet a significant chunk of these patients are populating the SCC hospitals.  If this is at all representative of what's going on in the rest of the country then we really, really need to get the vaccines to those populations.

[teejers1]

In the past five months, nearly 7.8 million Americans have fallen into poverty, 2.3 million of them are children under 17.  Poverty rate is now 11.7%, up 2.4% since June.  Nearly 40% of active duty military families are seeking food support.  The drastic fall is more than double the worst recorded since poverty rates started being recorded nearly 60 years ago.  

https://www.greenwichtime.com/business/a...807427.php

https://dnyuz.com/2020/12/16/pandemic-le...ssistance/

Mick, you're not changing any minds here.  Plus, the ones who favored SiP (and maybe still do) have the fallback position that "those poverty numbers would be much less bad if we had just taken our medicine early for a longer time" - which makes sense, in theory.  But really, given the complete failure of track and trace everywhere in the USA (with possible exception of pro sports teams), I doubt the US ever could have really gotten this thing under control in any meaningful way.  The US was destined to be stumble through, fits and starts, see what works and doesn't work and hope to learn from trial and error.  And hope to stave off crippling damage until a vaccine combatted the virus.

And this leads to me to a broader point:  has the US learned anything from this (ongoing) fiasco?  I hope so.  But I'm not sure.  Given that there will likely be another pandemic in most of our lifetimes, it would be nice to have the infrastructure to respond semi-quickly in better shape - even if that means funding bureaucrats that do very little for years at a time (isn't there some of that going on already, anyway)?  Maybe folks will more easily embrace masks and social distancing.  Or maybe folks will just assume (perhaps incorrectly) that all the US needs to do is better isolate/protect the vulnerable/older population and only take those measures . . . when the next virus may have a completely different damage profile.

And despite the death totals, there remains a colorable argument as to whether the economic shut down was "worth it," particularly given numbers that Mick posts in these parts.  I know most all folks here reject that out of hand, but this board is not a representation of the country at large.

The whole thing is pretty mind-numbing.  And at this point, I've resigned my "hopes" (such as they are) to (i) continuing to be smart/not stupid, and (ii) plugging along with vaccine distribution - and then see where the numbers are in 2 weeks, 1 month, 2 months, etc.  Hopefully headed in the right direction.  Hopefully noticeably.

P.S.  The SCC Dashboard for LTCF was updated today.  To say there has been a big spike in cases there would be an understatement.  Since November 29, there have been 459 (!) positive cases reported at LTCFs.  That is ridiculous.  And again, I bet a significant chunk of these patients are populating the SCC hospitals.  If this is at all representative of what's going on in the rest of the country then we really, really need to get the vaccines to those populations.

[chrisk]

Other issues that have contributed to the American failure:

1) major holes in the economic safety net

2) lack of cooperation with contact tracers (one statistic I heard but I don't know the geography: 70-80% of the positive cases were contacted, but about half did not provide any contact information). This issue may be related to 1) and also to immigration issues

[chrisk]

Other issues that have contributed to the American failure:

1) major holes in the economic safety net

2) lack of cooperation with contact tracers (one statistic I heard but I don't know the geography: 70-80% of the positive cases were contacted, but about half did not provide any contact information). This issue may be related to 1) and also to immigration issues

[lex24]

In the past five months, nearly 7.8 million Americans have fallen into poverty, 2.3 million of them are children under 17.  Poverty rate is now 11.7%, up 2.4% since June.  The drastic fall is more than double the worst recorded since poverty rates started being recorded nearly 60 years ago.  

https://www.greenwichtime.com/business/a...807427.php

Going to get a lot worse before it gets better, but it should get better soon, at least for some.

Production is starting to roar in Asia so there will be lots of goods to buy for the wealthiest Americans, once they get vaccinated.   The large companies that survive will be rolling in revenue soon enough, and will be able to find lots of available workers at low rates too.   

The poverty and unemployment could take a lot longer to recover. 
Lots of industries will be changed forever, but all of that is trivial compared to those that have lost loved ones during this pandemic.  
Everyone please stay safe during this holiday season.

“The poverty and unemployment could take a lot longer to recover.

Lots of industries will be changed forever, but all of that is trivial compared to those that have lost loved ones during this pandemic.”

What is the bigger tragedy, the death from Covid of a 75 year old with at most a couple years to live; or a family of four being plunged into poverty because their breadwinner has lost his/her job.  It is a ghoulish question. I get that. I also think it’s tough to answer. Unless of course you are either a family member of the 75 year old or the family of four.  

Change the scenario to 85 year old, and I think it’s an easy answer.

[lex24]

In the past five months, nearly 7.8 million Americans have fallen into poverty, 2.3 million of them are children under 17.  Poverty rate is now 11.7%, up 2.4% since June.  The drastic fall is more than double the worst recorded since poverty rates started being recorded nearly 60 years ago.  

https://www.greenwichtime.com/business/a...807427.php

Going to get a lot worse before it gets better, but it should get better soon, at least for some.

Production is starting to roar in Asia so there will be lots of goods to buy for the wealthiest Americans, once they get vaccinated.   The large companies that survive will be rolling in revenue soon enough, and will be able to find lots of available workers at low rates too.   

The poverty and unemployment could take a lot longer to recover. 
Lots of industries will be changed forever, but all of that is trivial compared to those that have lost loved ones during this pandemic.  
Everyone please stay safe during this holiday season.

“The poverty and unemployment could take a lot longer to recover.

Lots of industries will be changed forever, but all of that is trivial compared to those that have lost loved ones during this pandemic.”

What is the bigger tragedy, the death from Covid of a 75 year old with at most a couple years to live; or a family of four being plunged into poverty because their breadwinner has lost his/her job.  It is a ghoulish question. I get that. I also think it’s tough to answer. Unless of course you are either a family member of the 75 year old or the family of four.  

Change the scenario to 85 year old, and I think it’s an easy answer.

[JustAnotherFan]

There seems to be ample evidence that the best way to protect the economy was to take the pandemic seriously. We failed, miserably.

And then we didn't even take care of the people who were pushed into poverty.

Double fail by Amerika.

[JustAnotherFan]

There seems to be ample evidence that the best way to protect the economy was to take the pandemic seriously. We failed, miserably.

And then we didn't even take care of the people who were pushed into poverty.

Double fail by Amerika.

[Farm93]

In the past five months, nearly 7.8 million Americans have fallen into poverty, 2.3 million of them are children under 17.  Poverty rate is now 11.7%, up 2.4% since June.  The drastic fall is more than double the worst recorded since poverty rates started being recorded nearly 60 years ago.  

https://www.greenwichtime.com/business/a...807427.php

Going to get a lot worse before it gets better, but it should get better soon, at least for some.

Production is starting to roar in Asia so there will be lots of goods to buy for the wealthiest Americans, once they get vaccinated.   The large companies that survive will be rolling in revenue soon enough, and will be able to find lots of available workers at low rates too.   

The poverty and unemployment could take a lot longer to recover. 
Lots of industries will be changed forever, but all of that is trivial compared to those that have lost loved ones during this pandemic.  
Everyone please stay safe during this holiday season.

“The poverty and unemployment could take a lot longer to recover.

Lots of industries will be changed forever, but all of that is trivial compared to those that have lost loved ones during this pandemic.”

What is the bigger tragedy, the death from Covid of a 75 year old with at most a couple years to live; or a family of four being plunged into poverty because their breadwinner has lost his/her job.  It is a ghoulish question. I get that. I also think it’s tough to answer. Unless of course you are either a family member of the 75 year old or the family of four.  

Change the scenario to 85 year old, and I think it’s an easy answer.

Yikes!   That sounds like a death panel perspective for sure.
Though now that I think about it that is what some political leaders said in public.

Even if you accept 75 year-old deaths are best for society, they still consume human resources and facilities for the 2-4+ weeks while they slowly die in the hospital.   In that ghoulish world you'd need to keep them out of the hospital so that others without COVID could be treated.   Either the COVID issues add deaths beyond COVID, like that 50 year-old breadwinner suffering a heart attack or getting into a car accident on their commute, or the COVID fatality rate must climb as some with potentially survivable COVID get forced to out of hospital hospice care until recovery or death.   Ultimately it would need to be more ghoulish than you implied.

The death or jobs was a false choice lobbied often by those that gave us a world with so many deaths.
Tracing, testing and society adoption of PPE would have done so much to save the 75 year old AND keep the jobs.   Sadly, we had political leadership at different levels and states that didn't believe in testing or PPE use.   So now we discuss the death or jobs choice.

The USA had the access to economic solutions to pump money directly to the hypothetical family of four, but failed to do that for the duration of the pandemic.   That would have reduced COVID spread too.  Could have been a choice between death or national debt.  

Lots of COVID fatalities below the age of 75, so for those families this ghoulish calculation doesn't apply or we'd be adding to the ghoulish portion.

Feels like too much ghoulishness for officials tasked with saving lives, so as I respond I have a greater appreciation for the dilemma of the local health care officials since they normally would be discouraged from talking about the ghoulish stuff as that would create economy crushing panic.

As many of us know watching NCAAF games, SiP is largely as CA and Northeast concept.   There are millions of Americans suffering from COVID or now living in poverty that have just started wearing masks and never have had anything like a SiP.

Analysis is already showing what were the best choices for mitigation and/or economic sustainability in 2020.
It is already becoming clear that the USA made a lot of bad choices for a number of different reasons.

I agree that at some point, perhaps 2-5 years from now, the USA will need to work on a much better national pandemic mitigation plan.  With globalization we are certain to see more of these events over the next 30 years than we saw over the last 30 years (SARS, MERS, Swine-flu, COVID-19).

[Farm93]

In the past five months, nearly 7.8 million Americans have fallen into poverty, 2.3 million of them are children under 17.  Poverty rate is now 11.7%, up 2.4% since June.  The drastic fall is more than double the worst recorded since poverty rates started being recorded nearly 60 years ago.  

https://www.greenwichtime.com/business/a...807427.php

Going to get a lot worse before it gets better, but it should get better soon, at least for some.

Production is starting to roar in Asia so there will be lots of goods to buy for the wealthiest Americans, once they get vaccinated.   The large companies that survive will be rolling in revenue soon enough, and will be able to find lots of available workers at low rates too.   

The poverty and unemployment could take a lot longer to recover. 
Lots of industries will be changed forever, but all of that is trivial compared to those that have lost loved ones during this pandemic.  
Everyone please stay safe during this holiday season.

“The poverty and unemployment could take a lot longer to recover.

Lots of industries will be changed forever, but all of that is trivial compared to those that have lost loved ones during this pandemic.”

What is the bigger tragedy, the death from Covid of a 75 year old with at most a couple years to live; or a family of four being plunged into poverty because their breadwinner has lost his/her job.  It is a ghoulish question. I get that. I also think it’s tough to answer. Unless of course you are either a family member of the 75 year old or the family of four.  

Change the scenario to 85 year old, and I think it’s an easy answer.

Yikes!   That sounds like a death panel perspective for sure.
Though now that I think about it that is what some political leaders said in public.

Even if you accept 75 year-old deaths are best for society, they still consume human resources and facilities for the 2-4+ weeks while they slowly die in the hospital.   In that ghoulish world you'd need to keep them out of the hospital so that others without COVID could be treated.   Either the COVID issues add deaths beyond COVID, like that 50 year-old breadwinner suffering a heart attack or getting into a car accident on their commute, or the COVID fatality rate must climb as some with potentially survivable COVID get forced to out of hospital hospice care until recovery or death.   Ultimately it would need to be more ghoulish than you implied.

The death or jobs was a false choice lobbied often by those that gave us a world with so many deaths.
Tracing, testing and society adoption of PPE would have done so much to save the 75 year old AND keep the jobs.   Sadly, we had political leadership at different levels and states that didn't believe in testing or PPE use.   So now we discuss the death or jobs choice.

The USA had the access to economic solutions to pump money directly to the hypothetical family of four, but failed to do that for the duration of the pandemic.   That would have reduced COVID spread too.  Could have been a choice between death or national debt.  

Lots of COVID fatalities below the age of 75, so for those families this ghoulish calculation doesn't apply or we'd be adding to the ghoulish portion.

Feels like too much ghoulishness for officials tasked with saving lives, so as I respond I have a greater appreciation for the dilemma of the local health care officials since they normally would be discouraged from talking about the ghoulish stuff as that would create economy crushing panic.

As many of us know watching NCAAF games, SiP is largely as CA and Northeast concept.   There are millions of Americans suffering from COVID or now living in poverty that have just started wearing masks and never have had anything like a SiP.

Analysis is already showing what were the best choices for mitigation and/or economic sustainability in 2020.
It is already becoming clear that the USA made a lot of bad choices for a number of different reasons.

I agree that at some point, perhaps 2-5 years from now, the USA will need to work on a much better national pandemic mitigation plan.  With globalization we are certain to see more of these events over the next 30 years than we saw over the last 30 years (SARS, MERS, Swine-flu, COVID-19).

[OutsiderFan]

It is now becoming obvious the Turd administration did everything it could to spread the virus as much as possible. Why do you need relief from Congress if everything is open and everything is fine because the virus is just going away or isn't real in the first place?  

The simple fact of the matter is this. We should have stayed shut down longer and Congress should have made more relief available to allow shutdowns to stop virus spread when needed. Neither was done and so here we are.

The evidence all points to the pandemic raging out of control and more people falling into poverty, in service to one man's hope for re-election. Future generations will marvel at the stupidity when they read their history books. Hopefully, for their sake, they actually will read and not repeat it.

[OutsiderFan]

It is now becoming obvious the Turd administration did everything it could to spread the virus as much as possible. Why do you need relief from Congress if everything is open and everything is fine because the virus is just going away or isn't real in the first place?  

The simple fact of the matter is this. We should have stayed shut down longer and Congress should have made more relief available to allow shutdowns to stop virus spread when needed. Neither was done and so here we are.

The evidence all points to the pandemic raging out of control and more people falling into poverty, in service to one man's hope for re-election. Future generations will marvel at the stupidity when they read their history books. Hopefully, for their sake, they actually will read and not repeat it.

[lex24]

In the past five months, nearly 7.8 million Americans have fallen into poverty, 2.3 million of them are children under 17.  Poverty rate is now 11.7%, up 2.4% since June.  The drastic fall is more than double the worst recorded since poverty rates started being recorded nearly 60 years ago.  

https://www.greenwichtime.com/business/a...807427.php

Going to get a lot worse before it gets better, but it should get better soon, at least for some.

Production is starting to roar in Asia so there will be lots of goods to buy for the wealthiest Americans, once they get vaccinated.   The large companies that survive will be rolling in revenue soon enough, and will be able to find lots of available workers at low rates too.   

The poverty and unemployment could take a lot longer to recover. 
Lots of industries will be changed forever, but all of that is trivial compared to those that have lost loved ones during this pandemic.  
Everyone please stay safe during this holiday season.

“The poverty and unemployment could take a lot longer to recover.

Lots of industries will be changed forever, but all of that is trivial compared to those that have lost loved ones during this pandemic.”

What is the bigger tragedy, the death from Covid of a 75 year old with at most a couple years to live; or a family of four being plunged into poverty because their breadwinner has lost his/her job.  It is a ghoulish question. I get that. I also think it’s tough to answer. Unless of course you are either a family member of the 75 year old or the family of four.  

Change the scenario to 85 year old, and I think it’s an easy answer.

Yikes!   That sounds like a death panel perspective for sure.
Though now that I think about it that is what some political leaders said in public.

Even if you accept 75 year-old deaths are best for society, they still consume human resources and facilities for the 2-4+ weeks while they slowly die in the hospital.   In that ghoulish world you'd need to keep them out of the hospital so that others without COVID could be treated.   Either the COVID issues add deaths beyond COVID, like that 50 year-old breadwinner suffering a heart attack or getting into a car accident on their commute, or the COVID fatality rate must climb as some with potentially survivable COVID get forced to out of hospital hospice care until recovery or death.   Ultimately it would need to be more ghoulish than you implied.

The death or jobs was a false choice lobbied often by those that gave us a world with so many deaths.
Tracing, testing and society adoption of PPE would have done so much to save the 75 year old AND keep the jobs.   Sadly, we had political leadership at different levels and states that didn't believe in testing or PPE use.   So now we discuss the death or jobs choice.

The USA had the access to economic solutions to pump money directly to the hypothetical family of four, but failed to do that for the duration of the pandemic.   That would have reduced COVID spread too.  Could have been a choice between death or national debt.  

Lots of COVID fatalities below the age of 75, so for those families this ghoulish calculation doesn't apply or we'd be adding to the ghoulish portion.

Feels like too much ghoulishness for officials tasked with saving lives, so as I respond I have a greater appreciation for the dilemma of the local health care officials since they normally would be discouraged from talking about the ghoulish stuff as that would create economy crushing panic.

As many of us know watching NCAAF games, SiP is largely as CA and Northeast concept.   There are millions of Americans suffering from COVID or now living in poverty that have just started wearing masks and never have had anything like a SiP.

Analysis is already showing what were the best choices for mitigation and/or economic sustainability in 2020.
It is already becoming clear that the USA made a lot of bad choices for a number of different reasons.

I agree that at some point, perhaps 2-5 years from now, the USA will need to work on a much better national pandemic mitigation plan.  With globalization we are certain to see more of these events over the next 30 years than we saw over the last 30 years (SARS, MERS, Swine-flu, COVID-19).

My question is in a situation such as this where the vast majority of hospitilizations  and death are known to be elderly and particularly elderly with comordibities, is there a way to do a more targeted approach.  That’s what I hope they look at moving forward.  Of course, no guarantees the next pandemic hits the same demographic hardest.  But I’m not sure the one size fits all approach is best, taking into account all aspects of this.

Also if a LTCF patient has a terminal illness and gets Covid, does he/she go to ICU? Does that change when the capacity becomes limited? I don’t know the answer to this. Either actually or ethically. It also lines up with an ethical societal question relating to health care costs: how much do we spend to keep elderly terminal patients alive; often with poor life quality. Hard to talk about. I’ll use a personal example. My father. With whom I was extremely close. At 82 he was diagnosed with Pulminary Fibrosis. No cure. Which I consider a terminal illness (Drs on the board, please correct me if I’m wrong) At 84 they decided he needed open heart surgery as that might help him some. At 85 his prostate cancer came back. Dr wanted to prescribe hormone meds. Dad said “ Are you nuts, I’m dying”. Dr probably had no choice but to suggest it. I didn’t think twice about the surgery (which maybe gave him a few more months, maybe even a year) at the time. After all, I wanted Dad around as long as possible. But really, should that procedure have been prescribed to a dying man? These are ethical questions in the health care arena that are exceedingly difficult.

Dad gave me one last gift. About a month before he died he told me he was ready. He had a good life. But the quality was gone. That is a blessing to give those that survive.

I apologize for the personal story. But it’s the best way I can think of to frame a very difficult issue. And maybe show I do have a heart....

[lex24]

In the past five months, nearly 7.8 million Americans have fallen into poverty, 2.3 million of them are children under 17.  Poverty rate is now 11.7%, up 2.4% since June.  The drastic fall is more than double the worst recorded since poverty rates started being recorded nearly 60 years ago.  

https://www.greenwichtime.com/business/a...807427.php

Going to get a lot worse before it gets better, but it should get better soon, at least for some.

Production is starting to roar in Asia so there will be lots of goods to buy for the wealthiest Americans, once they get vaccinated.   The large companies that survive will be rolling in revenue soon enough, and will be able to find lots of available workers at low rates too.   

The poverty and unemployment could take a lot longer to recover. 
Lots of industries will be changed forever, but all of that is trivial compared to those that have lost loved ones during this pandemic.  
Everyone please stay safe during this holiday season.

“The poverty and unemployment could take a lot longer to recover.

Lots of industries will be changed forever, but all of that is trivial compared to those that have lost loved ones during this pandemic.”

What is the bigger tragedy, the death from Covid of a 75 year old with at most a couple years to live; or a family of four being plunged into poverty because their breadwinner has lost his/her job.  It is a ghoulish question. I get that. I also think it’s tough to answer. Unless of course you are either a family member of the 75 year old or the family of four.  

Change the scenario to 85 year old, and I think it’s an easy answer.

Yikes!   That sounds like a death panel perspective for sure.
Though now that I think about it that is what some political leaders said in public.

Even if you accept 75 year-old deaths are best for society, they still consume human resources and facilities for the 2-4+ weeks while they slowly die in the hospital.   In that ghoulish world you'd need to keep them out of the hospital so that others without COVID could be treated.   Either the COVID issues add deaths beyond COVID, like that 50 year-old breadwinner suffering a heart attack or getting into a car accident on their commute, or the COVID fatality rate must climb as some with potentially survivable COVID get forced to out of hospital hospice care until recovery or death.   Ultimately it would need to be more ghoulish than you implied.

The death or jobs was a false choice lobbied often by those that gave us a world with so many deaths.
Tracing, testing and society adoption of PPE would have done so much to save the 75 year old AND keep the jobs.   Sadly, we had political leadership at different levels and states that didn't believe in testing or PPE use.   So now we discuss the death or jobs choice.

The USA had the access to economic solutions to pump money directly to the hypothetical family of four, but failed to do that for the duration of the pandemic.   That would have reduced COVID spread too.  Could have been a choice between death or national debt.  

Lots of COVID fatalities below the age of 75, so for those families this ghoulish calculation doesn't apply or we'd be adding to the ghoulish portion.

Feels like too much ghoulishness for officials tasked with saving lives, so as I respond I have a greater appreciation for the dilemma of the local health care officials since they normally would be discouraged from talking about the ghoulish stuff as that would create economy crushing panic.

As many of us know watching NCAAF games, SiP is largely as CA and Northeast concept.   There are millions of Americans suffering from COVID or now living in poverty that have just started wearing masks and never have had anything like a SiP.

Analysis is already showing what were the best choices for mitigation and/or economic sustainability in 2020.
It is already becoming clear that the USA made a lot of bad choices for a number of different reasons.

I agree that at some point, perhaps 2-5 years from now, the USA will need to work on a much better national pandemic mitigation plan.  With globalization we are certain to see more of these events over the next 30 years than we saw over the last 30 years (SARS, MERS, Swine-flu, COVID-19).

My question is in a situation such as this where the vast majority of hospitilizations  and death are known to be elderly and particularly elderly with comordibities, is there a way to do a more targeted approach.  That’s what I hope they look at moving forward.  Of course, no guarantees the next pandemic hits the same demographic hardest.  But I’m not sure the one size fits all approach is best, taking into account all aspects of this.

Also if a LTCF patient has a terminal illness and gets Covid, does he/she go to ICU? Does that change when the capacity becomes limited? I don’t know the answer to this. Either actually or ethically. It also lines up with an ethical societal question relating to health care costs: how much do we spend to keep elderly terminal patients alive; often with poor life quality. Hard to talk about. I’ll use a personal example. My father. With whom I was extremely close. At 82 he was diagnosed with Pulminary Fibrosis. No cure. Which I consider a terminal illness (Drs on the board, please correct me if I’m wrong) At 84 they decided he needed open heart surgery as that might help him some. At 85 his prostate cancer came back. Dr wanted to prescribe hormone meds. Dad said “ Are you nuts, I’m dying”. Dr probably had no choice but to suggest it. I didn’t think twice about the surgery (which maybe gave him a few more months, maybe even a year) at the time. After all, I wanted Dad around as long as possible. But really, should that procedure have been prescribed to a dying man? These are ethical questions in the health care arena that are exceedingly difficult.

Dad gave me one last gift. About a month before he died he told me he was ready. He had a good life. But the quality was gone. That is a blessing to give those that survive.

I apologize for the personal story. But it’s the best way I can think of to frame a very difficult issue. And maybe show I do have a heart....

[Goose]

It is now becoming obvious the Turd administration did everything it could to spread the virus as much as possible. Why do you need relief from Congress if everything is open and everything is fine because the virus is just going away or isn't real in the first place?  

The simple fact of the matter is this. We should have stayed shut down longer and Congress should have made more relief available to allow shutdowns to stop virus spread when needed. Neither was done and so here we are.

The evidence all points to the pandemic raging out of control and more people falling into poverty, in service to one man's hope for re-election. Future generations will marvel at the stupidity when they read their history books. Hopefully, for their sake, they actually will read and not repeat it.

OF, I think your narrative is easily falsifiable. First of all, many European countries that have no Trump and who did stay locked down to crush the curve are in essentially the same place the USA finds itself. Second, Trump didn't force Newsom to start opening up California before LA and the surrounding area had got their cases under control. Third, Trump didn't and isn't causing the failure of contact tracking and tracing in Santa Clara County (which voted massively for Biden).

I totally agree Trump was a big problem in the USA's response. However, he wasn't the only problem. Furthermore, as time went on it should have become increasingly clear to anybody paying even the remotest attention to events that COVID-19 was a "big deal" no matter what Trump was tweeting at the moment. I especially like Dr. Morrow's comments regarding the fact the government has no magic wand it can wave and make this all go away. The problem is real and all the proposed solutions, ranging from just letting people die to shutting down the economy indefinitely have very big down sides. There may be a strategy that is "optimal", but to find it requires trial and error it would seem. Furthermore, what is optimal depends on  the various weighting factors in the objective function, which have never been agreed upon.

The reason this matters, at least to me, is that if the public believes, or is led to believe, that Trump was the problem and now all will be well, these other problems will not get fixed. Then next time we may have a chief executive who responds more rationally but still finds himself in a situation where the tools available are inadequate and ineffective. That executive will also be dealing with a population that still doesn't "get it", because they were convinced Trump was the problem.

[Goose]

It is now becoming obvious the Turd administration did everything it could to spread the virus as much as possible. Why do you need relief from Congress if everything is open and everything is fine because the virus is just going away or isn't real in the first place?  

The simple fact of the matter is this. We should have stayed shut down longer and Congress should have made more relief available to allow shutdowns to stop virus spread when needed. Neither was done and so here we are.

The evidence all points to the pandemic raging out of control and more people falling into poverty, in service to one man's hope for re-election. Future generations will marvel at the stupidity when they read their history books. Hopefully, for their sake, they actually will read and not repeat it.

OF, I think your narrative is easily falsifiable. First of all, many European countries that have no Trump and who did stay locked down to crush the curve are in essentially the same place the USA finds itself. Second, Trump didn't force Newsom to start opening up California before LA and the surrounding area had got their cases under control. Third, Trump didn't and isn't causing the failure of contact tracking and tracing in Santa Clara County (which voted massively for Biden).

I totally agree Trump was a big problem in the USA's response. However, he wasn't the only problem. Furthermore, as time went on it should have become increasingly clear to anybody paying even the remotest attention to events that COVID-19 was a "big deal" no matter what Trump was tweeting at the moment. I especially like Dr. Morrow's comments regarding the fact the government has no magic wand it can wave and make this all go away. The problem is real and all the proposed solutions, ranging from just letting people die to shutting down the economy indefinitely have very big down sides. There may be a strategy that is "optimal", but to find it requires trial and error it would seem. Furthermore, what is optimal depends on  the various weighting factors in the objective function, which have never been agreed upon.

The reason this matters, at least to me, is that if the public believes, or is led to believe, that Trump was the problem and now all will be well, these other problems will not get fixed. Then next time we may have a chief executive who responds more rationally but still finds himself in a situation where the tools available are inadequate and ineffective. That executive will also be dealing with a population that still doesn't "get it", because they were convinced Trump was the problem.

[Genuine Realist]

In the past five months, nearly 7.8 million Americans have fallen into poverty, 2.3 million of them are children under 17.  Poverty rate is now 11.7%, up 2.4% since June.  Nearly 40% of active duty military families are seeking food support.  The drastic fall is more than double the worst recorded since poverty rates started being recorded nearly 60 years ago.  

https://www.greenwichtime.com/business/a...807427.php

https://dnyuz.com/2020/12/16/pandemic-le...ssistance/

What goes down that fast can come up with equal rapidity. We are not talking about the effects of long term systemic causes, but short term sociatal trauma.

[Genuine Realist]

In the past five months, nearly 7.8 million Americans have fallen into poverty, 2.3 million of them are children under 17.  Poverty rate is now 11.7%, up 2.4% since June.  Nearly 40% of active duty military families are seeking food support.  The drastic fall is more than double the worst recorded since poverty rates started being recorded nearly 60 years ago.  

https://www.greenwichtime.com/business/a...807427.php

https://dnyuz.com/2020/12/16/pandemic-le...ssistance/

What goes down that fast can come up with equal rapidity. We are not talking about the effects of long term systemic causes, but short term sociatal trauma.

[BostonCard]

After the spring surge, it was calculated that the average patient who died from COVID-19 was robbed of 10 years of their life (wish I could find the reference).  So, even the older patients were unlikely to have been dying anyways.

On top of that, it turns out that a study was just published that showed the impact of COVID-19 on younger people:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/16/opini...74f24220a2

July appears to have been the deadliest month among this age group in modern American history. Over the past 20 years, an average of 11,000 young American adults died each July. This year that number swelled to over 16,000.

In addition, among survivors, something like 1 in 20 have "long COVID", symptoms of COVID-19 at least 8 weeks after infection.
https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/long-covid

BC

[BostonCard]

After the spring surge, it was calculated that the average patient who died from COVID-19 was robbed of 10 years of their life (wish I could find the reference).  So, even the older patients were unlikely to have been dying anyways.

On top of that, it turns out that a study was just published that showed the impact of COVID-19 on younger people:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/16/opini...74f24220a2

July appears to have been the deadliest month among this age group in modern American history. Over the past 20 years, an average of 11,000 young American adults died each July. This year that number swelled to over 16,000.

In addition, among survivors, something like 1 in 20 have "long COVID", symptoms of COVID-19 at least 8 weeks after infection.
https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/long-covid

BC

[OutsiderFan]

Goose, read the Politico reporting. I understand the desire to be even handed and make sure "correlation doesn't equal causation" but it's now clearly obvious what I posted is the truth.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/16...egy-446408

1. POTUS wanted to win election
2. Economy was seen as path to victory
3. Pandemic closures put that at risk
4. POTUS didn't want to deal with the pandemic and doing nothing was easy
5. Every apparatus of the government was moved in a herd immunity direction since April

John Heilmann had a great characterization of Scott Atlas. He was an "ex-post-facto" hire to push the herd immunity strategy, meaning, he wasn't brought in to initiate it. He was brought in to continue it. The scandal here is not only that they pursued getting people infected as their strategy, but that they tried to keep it a secret that this is what they were doing while they were doing it, and tried to pin the whole idea on Atlas, as if it was his idea and hadn't yet been implemented.

These people are sub-human, despicable liars. The good news is I don't have to work very hard to defend what I am saying because the truth always comes out. Eventually.

[OutsiderFan]

Goose, read the Politico reporting. I understand the desire to be even handed and make sure "correlation doesn't equal causation" but it's now clearly obvious what I posted is the truth.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/16...egy-446408

1. POTUS wanted to win election
2. Economy was seen as path to victory
3. Pandemic closures put that at risk
4. POTUS didn't want to deal with the pandemic and doing nothing was easy
5. Every apparatus of the government was moved in a herd immunity direction since April

John Heilmann had a great characterization of Scott Atlas. He was an "ex-post-facto" hire to push the herd immunity strategy, meaning, he wasn't brought in to initiate it. He was brought in to continue it. The scandal here is not only that they pursued getting people infected as their strategy, but that they tried to keep it a secret that this is what they were doing while they were doing it, and tried to pin the whole idea on Atlas, as if it was his idea and hadn't yet been implemented.

These people are sub-human, despicable liars. The good news is I don't have to work very hard to defend what I am saying because the truth always comes out. Eventually.

[Goose]

Goose, read the Politico reporting. I understand the desire to be even handed and make sure "correlation doesn't equal causation" but it's now clearly obvious what I posted is the truth.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/16...egy-446408

1. POTUS wanted to win election
2. Economy was seen as path to victory
3. Pandemic closures put that at risk
4. POTUS didn't want to deal with the pandemic and doing nothing was easy
5. Every apparatus of the government was moved in a herd immunity direction since April

John Heilmann had a great characterization of Scott Atlas. He was an "ex-post-facto" hire to push the herd immunity strategy, meaning, he wasn't brought in to initiate it. He was brought in to continue it. The scandal here is not only that they pursued getting people infected as their strategy, but that they tried to keep it a secret that this is what they were doing while they were doing it, and tried to pin the whole idea on Atlas, as if it was his idea and hadn't yet been implemented.

These people are sub-human, despicable liars. The good news is I don't have to work very hard to defend what I am saying because the truth always comes out. Eventually.

I buy 1,2,and 3.
I don't buy 4. Trump would have loved it if there was a solution like drinking bleach (pun intended), or perhaps some quick, easy fix. There weren't any, so he didn't really know what to do, other than pretend there wasn't a problem, which he did.
5 is demonstrably false. The CDC continued to function. The FDA continued to function. Many, many government employees continued to behave professionally. I totally agree that this was no thanks to Trump, but the idea that he actually succeeded is clearly false. He tried to exert undue influence, and in a few cases, he succeeded, but in most he did not. Fauci is still there. You also give Trump way too much credit. There was no "herd immunity strategy". There was no strategy at all, other than 1, 2, and 3. The "ex-post-facto" hire was exactly that. He was hired to give credibility to doing nothing, which was what had already been done. This approach did appeal to some politicians who also endorsed 1, 2, and 3, unfortunately.
The fact herd immunity was discussed does not prove Trump endorsed it or even understood it. I guess where you and I differ is that I don't believe it was a coherent plot to get herd immunity. I believe it was just people trying to figure out how to justify doing 1, 2, and 3.
From the Politico article:

In a statement, an HHS spokesperson said that Alexander’s demands for herd immunity “absolutely did not” shape department strategy.

“Dr. Paul Alexander previously served as a temporary Senior Policy Advisor to the Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs and is no longer employed at the Department,” the spokesperson said.

Yes, he was an idiot. Fortunately, the damage wasn't as bad as it could have been because it was obvious he was an idiot.

The health department has worked to distance itself from Alexander since his mid-September departure, and several Trump appointees said that Alexander was often isolated during his roughly six-month stint advising department officials.

Yep.

[Goose]

Goose, read the Politico reporting. I understand the desire to be even handed and make sure "correlation doesn't equal causation" but it's now clearly obvious what I posted is the truth.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/16...egy-446408

1. POTUS wanted to win election
2. Economy was seen as path to victory
3. Pandemic closures put that at risk
4. POTUS didn't want to deal with the pandemic and doing nothing was easy
5. Every apparatus of the government was moved in a herd immunity direction since April

John Heilmann had a great characterization of Scott Atlas. He was an "ex-post-facto" hire to push the herd immunity strategy, meaning, he wasn't brought in to initiate it. He was brought in to continue it. The scandal here is not only that they pursued getting people infected as their strategy, but that they tried to keep it a secret that this is what they were doing while they were doing it, and tried to pin the whole idea on Atlas, as if it was his idea and hadn't yet been implemented.

These people are sub-human, despicable liars. The good news is I don't have to work very hard to defend what I am saying because the truth always comes out. Eventually.

I buy 1,2,and 3.
I don't buy 4. Trump would have loved it if there was a solution like drinking bleach (pun intended), or perhaps some quick, easy fix. There weren't any, so he didn't really know what to do, other than pretend there wasn't a problem, which he did.
5 is demonstrably false. The CDC continued to function. The FDA continued to function. Many, many government employees continued to behave professionally. I totally agree that this was no thanks to Trump, but the idea that he actually succeeded is clearly false. He tried to exert undue influence, and in a few cases, he succeeded, but in most he did not. Fauci is still there. You also give Trump way too much credit. There was no "herd immunity strategy". There was no strategy at all, other than 1, 2, and 3. The "ex-post-facto" hire was exactly that. He was hired to give credibility to doing nothing, which was what had already been done. This approach did appeal to some politicians who also endorsed 1, 2, and 3, unfortunately.
The fact herd immunity was discussed does not prove Trump endorsed it or even understood it. I guess where you and I differ is that I don't believe it was a coherent plot to get herd immunity. I believe it was just people trying to figure out how to justify doing 1, 2, and 3.
From the Politico article:

In a statement, an HHS spokesperson said that Alexander’s demands for herd immunity “absolutely did not” shape department strategy.

“Dr. Paul Alexander previously served as a temporary Senior Policy Advisor to the Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs and is no longer employed at the Department,” the spokesperson said.

Yes, he was an idiot. Fortunately, the damage wasn't as bad as it could have been because it was obvious he was an idiot.

The health department has worked to distance itself from Alexander since his mid-September departure, and several Trump appointees said that Alexander was often isolated during his roughly six-month stint advising department officials.

Yep.

[BostonCard]

Meanwhile, in New Zealand, they have completely recovered the economic output drop from COVID-19.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/pearkes/status/1339537773385138176?s=21[/tweet]

Call me a bit surprised, given how dependent on tourism New Zealand is.

BC

[BostonCard]

Meanwhile, in New Zealand, they have completely recovered the economic output drop from COVID-19.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/pearkes/status/1339537773385138176?s=21[/tweet]

Call me a bit surprised, given how dependent on tourism New Zealand is.

BC

[Goose]

Meanwhile, in New Zealand, they have completely recovered the economic output drop from COVID-19.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/pearkes/status/1339537773385138176?s=21[/tweet]

Call me a bit surprised, given how dependent on tourism New Zealand is.

BC

Lots of economic stimulus applied. How sustainable this recover is going to be is an open question.

[Goose]

Meanwhile, in New Zealand, they have completely recovered the economic output drop from COVID-19.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/pearkes/status/1339537773385138176?s=21[/tweet]

Call me a bit surprised, given how dependent on tourism New Zealand is.

BC

Lots of economic stimulus applied. How sustainable this recover is going to be is an open question.

[chrisk]

The lack of an adequate safety net compounded the poor US response. Trump talked like he wanted to spend a lot of money to pump up the economy, but who knows how sincere he was.
He was a member of the Republicans party which wouldn’t sign off on a stronger safety net.

Compared to other developed countries, the holes in the US safety net encouraged people to work in occupations that were not only dangerous to their health but facilitated the spread of COVID. Compared to truly essential activities, what is essential about dining in or out at restaurants? Travel dropped significantly, but airlines have been aggressively promoting their fares. There has been little enforcement limiting hotel stays to essential workers.

[chrisk]

The lack of an adequate safety net compounded the poor US response. Trump talked like he wanted to spend a lot of money to pump up the economy, but who knows how sincere he was.
He was a member of the Republicans party which wouldn’t sign off on a stronger safety net.

Compared to other developed countries, the holes in the US safety net encouraged people to work in occupations that were not only dangerous to their health but facilitated the spread of COVID. Compared to truly essential activities, what is essential about dining in or out at restaurants? Travel dropped significantly, but airlines have been aggressively promoting their fares. There has been little enforcement limiting hotel stays to essential workers.

[Mick]

In the past five months, nearly 7.8 million Americans have fallen into poverty, 2.3 million of them are children under 17.  Poverty rate is now 11.7%, up 2.4% since June.  The drastic fall is more than double the worst recorded since poverty rates started being recorded nearly 60 years ago.  

https://www.greenwichtime.com/business/a...807427.php

Going to get a lot worse before it gets better, but it should get better soon, at least for some.

Production is starting to roar in Asia so there will be lots of goods to buy for the wealthiest Americans, once they get vaccinated.   The large companies that survive will be rolling in revenue soon enough, and will be able to find lots of available workers at low rates too.   

The poverty and unemployment could take a lot longer to recover. 
Lots of industries will be changed forever, but all of that is trivial compared to those that have lost loved ones during this pandemic.  
Everyone please stay safe during this holiday season.

“The poverty and unemployment could take a lot longer to recover.

Lots of industries will be changed forever, but all of that is trivial compared to those that have lost loved ones during this pandemic.”

What is the bigger tragedy, the death from Covid of a 75 year old with at most a couple years to live; or a family of four being plunged into poverty because their breadwinner has lost his/her job.  It is a ghoulish question. I get that. I also think it’s tough to answer. Unless of course you are either a family member of the 75 year old or the family of four.  

Change the scenario to 85 year old, and I think it’s an easy answer.

Well, at least there was a massive drop in initial unemployment claims as SiP worked perfectly, the second round of the stimulus took hold and the job market came roaring back.

Just kidding.

No second round of the stimulus yet.  Job market hasn't come back.  And there was an increase in initial unemployment claims to 885,000, largest since September.  The total number of continued weeks claimed for benefits in all programs for the week ending November 28 was 20,646,779, an increase of 1,603,281 from the previous week. There were 1,782,260 weekly claims filed for benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2019.

The total number of continued weeks claimed for benefits in all programs for the week ending November 28 was 20,646,779, an increase of 1,603,281 from the previous week. There were 1,782,260 weekly claims filed for benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2019. So, SiP has failed.

---

In the past five months, nearly 7.8 million Americans have fallen into poverty, 2.3 million of them are children under 17.  Poverty rate is now 11.7%, up 2.4% since June.  Nearly 40% of active duty military families are seeking food support.  The drastic fall is more than double the worst recorded since poverty rates started being recorded nearly 60 years ago.  

https://www.greenwichtime.com/business/a...807427.php

https://dnyuz.com/2020/12/16/pandemic-le...ssistance/

What goes down that fast can come up with equal rapidity. We are not talking about the effects of long term systemic causes, but short term sociatal trauma.

So just so I'm reading you correctly, you don't anticipate any long-term economic or social dislocation from this short term societal trauma?

[Mick]

In the past five months, nearly 7.8 million Americans have fallen into poverty, 2.3 million of them are children under 17.  Poverty rate is now 11.7%, up 2.4% since June.  The drastic fall is more than double the worst recorded since poverty rates started being recorded nearly 60 years ago.  

https://www.greenwichtime.com/business/a...807427.php

Going to get a lot worse before it gets better, but it should get better soon, at least for some.

Production is starting to roar in Asia so there will be lots of goods to buy for the wealthiest Americans, once they get vaccinated.   The large companies that survive will be rolling in revenue soon enough, and will be able to find lots of available workers at low rates too.   

The poverty and unemployment could take a lot longer to recover. 
Lots of industries will be changed forever, but all of that is trivial compared to those that have lost loved ones during this pandemic.  
Everyone please stay safe during this holiday season.

“The poverty and unemployment could take a lot longer to recover.

Lots of industries will be changed forever, but all of that is trivial compared to those that have lost loved ones during this pandemic.”

What is the bigger tragedy, the death from Covid of a 75 year old with at most a couple years to live; or a family of four being plunged into poverty because their breadwinner has lost his/her job.  It is a ghoulish question. I get that. I also think it’s tough to answer. Unless of course you are either a family member of the 75 year old or the family of four.  

Change the scenario to 85 year old, and I think it’s an easy answer.

Well, at least there was a massive drop in initial unemployment claims as SiP worked perfectly, the second round of the stimulus took hold and the job market came roaring back.

Just kidding.

No second round of the stimulus yet.  Job market hasn't come back.  And there was an increase in initial unemployment claims to 885,000, largest since September.  The total number of continued weeks claimed for benefits in all programs for the week ending November 28 was 20,646,779, an increase of 1,603,281 from the previous week. There were 1,782,260 weekly claims filed for benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2019.

The total number of continued weeks claimed for benefits in all programs for the week ending November 28 was 20,646,779, an increase of 1,603,281 from the previous week. There were 1,782,260 weekly claims filed for benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2019. So, SiP has failed.

---

In the past five months, nearly 7.8 million Americans have fallen into poverty, 2.3 million of them are children under 17.  Poverty rate is now 11.7%, up 2.4% since June.  Nearly 40% of active duty military families are seeking food support.  The drastic fall is more than double the worst recorded since poverty rates started being recorded nearly 60 years ago.  

https://www.greenwichtime.com/business/a...807427.php

https://dnyuz.com/2020/12/16/pandemic-le...ssistance/

What goes down that fast can come up with equal rapidity. We are not talking about the effects of long term systemic causes, but short term sociatal trauma.

So just so I'm reading you correctly, you don't anticipate any long-term economic or social dislocation from this short term societal trauma?

[fullmetal]

What goes down that fast can come up with equal rapidity. We are not talking about the effects of long term systemic causes, but short term sociatal trauma.

Have you looked at how many small businesses have closed down, how many people have had to move back in with family in different cities, and how many people have had to quit their jobs to provide childcare?  Re-entering the labor force won't happen without a long lag as businesses get back on a financial footing capable of paying more employees.  Those re-entering the job markets will be competing for precious few positions initially after such a long layoff.  And over the long run, this protracted pandemic will have artificially deflated career ceilings, experience, and lifetime earning power.

You give no reasoning as to why a crashing employment figure "can come back up with equal rapidity" in this particular pandemic recovery, and I don't think the analysis will ever support that.

[fullmetal]

What goes down that fast can come up with equal rapidity. We are not talking about the effects of long term systemic causes, but short term sociatal trauma.

Have you looked at how many small businesses have closed down, how many people have had to move back in with family in different cities, and how many people have had to quit their jobs to provide childcare?  Re-entering the labor force won't happen without a long lag as businesses get back on a financial footing capable of paying more employees.  Those re-entering the job markets will be competing for precious few positions initially after such a long layoff.  And over the long run, this protracted pandemic will have artificially deflated career ceilings, experience, and lifetime earning power.

You give no reasoning as to why a crashing employment figure "can come back up with equal rapidity" in this particular pandemic recovery, and I don't think the analysis will ever support that.

[Farm93]

Meanwhile, in New Zealand, they have completely recovered the economic output drop from COVID-19.

Call me a bit surprised, given how dependent on tourism New Zealand is.

BC

Lots of economic stimulus applied. How sustainable this recover is going to be is an open question.

It I lived in South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, or anywhere else that is able to travel globally right now, I would be far more inclined to spend a month or two in New Zealand's summer than spend some time in the USA's COVID winter.   

In many of those Pacific Rim countries citizens can travel to New Zealand right now, but will have significant restrictions on travelling to the USA for months.   If that persists for another ~6 months New Zealand will enjoy a meaningful surge in tourism as funds that would normally be spent on USA tourism will get diverted to other nations.

[Farm93]

Meanwhile, in New Zealand, they have completely recovered the economic output drop from COVID-19.

Call me a bit surprised, given how dependent on tourism New Zealand is.

BC

Lots of economic stimulus applied. How sustainable this recover is going to be is an open question.

It I lived in South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, or anywhere else that is able to travel globally right now, I would be far more inclined to spend a month or two in New Zealand's summer than spend some time in the USA's COVID winter.   

In many of those Pacific Rim countries citizens can travel to New Zealand right now, but will have significant restrictions on travelling to the USA for months.   If that persists for another ~6 months New Zealand will enjoy a meaningful surge in tourism as funds that would normally be spent on USA tourism will get diverted to other nations.