(03-09-2021, 09:09 PM)TheFarm07 Wrote: I didn't have too much time today, but I created a table with the most obvious stats for the 7 teams 81alum mentioned and I included our figures for comparison (the stats are through March 8th and the rankings are in parentheses):
According to 81alum's second point, if we prefer to play a team with an elite offense and an average defense, Maryland would actually be a team we want in our bracket rather than one to avoid. The Terrapins have a top shelf offense, 1st in points per game and top 5 in FG% and 3P%, but their defense is noticeably worse than the other teams in the table.
Statistically, UConn and Baylor are the teams we should avoid, since they look good on both offense and defense.
However, this is only a quantitative analysis and doesn't provide any context behind the numbers.
Great thread, 81alum, and very insightful contributions, TheFarm07!
Since I watch a good amount of college WBB, here are a couple of thoughts on the team as well as possible (top) opponents:
Stanford
- The 2 week+ break before the start of the tournament will be a bigger advantage than we may initially think. Not only does the team get to rest, but with final regular season games and conference tournaments coming after our final contest, our team has a chance to scout the competition and most importantly, allow our lead magician to do what she does best.
- We are a solid 7-9 deep (Williams, Wilson, Jones, Le.Hull, Brink, La.Hull, Jump, Prechtel/Belibi) with potential for more.
- Tournament Kiana seems to have awakened. Could not be more excited to lean on her and Anna's senior leadership, in Kiana's hometown.
- If teams are scouting our weaknesses, I would have to +1 a few notes about Brink being foul-prone as well as the challenges of Prechtel and Belibi, depending on the match ups. With the Bostons, Cunanes, bigs from Louisville, UConn, & Baylor out there, our defense will have to find a way to limit the posts of other top teams while finding ways to avoid scoring droughts.
- Hate to play devils advocate, but am I the only one a little concerned about Haley's shooting? She is 1-9 (11%) from 3pt for the season, and as of late has seemed to have slow starts/become hesitant to shoot a jumper. I have no doubt that teams will look to expose this and I would hate to see a perfect storm of a bad shooting night and multiple early fouls from Brink against a physical team.
Competition
If the current Bracketology seedings stand and this magic season goes as planned with Stanford as the overall #1 seed, we are projected to meet with Kentucky in the S16, Louisville in the E8, either S.Carolina/NC State in the F4, and UConn/Baylor/Texas A&M or Maryland for the title.
- Kentucky: This would be a good test but they are heavily reliant on their superstar Rhyne Howard (20.7ppg). However, they are battle tested coming from the SEC.
- Louisville: Not sure I'd go as far to say that I would much rather play them vs Georgia, who is peaking at the right time and still gives me nightmares after what happened in 2013. Louisville actually scares me. They looked really, really good early on, and despite dropping their two games vs NC State, they are capable of taking down any team in the tournament. They have a lot of offensive weapons at the guard position, play pesky, physical defense, and Walz is known to come up with schemes during big games (they beat Oregon last season after limiting Ionescu to 6-20 shooting and 1-9 from 3pt; beat UConn as recent as early 2019; and had the goliath-slaying win vs Baylor in 2012).
- South Carolina: similar to us, they are another talent-rich team who have been exposed to more competition having played NC State, UConn, and multiple formidable opponents in the deep SEC. Boston is POY-caliber, and they have all the pieces to win it all this season. They are a somewhat young core (start 3 sophs, and a new starter in Henderson) and if it's a shoot out with multiple fouls being called, I like our chances. They only shoot 33% from beyond the arc and really only have two notable long range shooters (Cooke and Henderson). Staley is one of the best coaches in the game, and although I would rather play NC State, I'd love to see Tara go head to head with a healthy and just as talented team to get some payback after 2016.
- NC State: 6-5 Cunane is the real deal, and the Wolfpack practically start 3 seniors and 1 grad-transfer. I think a combo of Brink, Prechtel, and Belibi can slow down their bigs and help us get back to the championship game.
- Texas A&M: very good team, despite the loss in the SEC finals. They have a legendary coach, play very disciplined, team ball (now that Carter has moved on), and play above their rankings entering the tournament as a #1 seed despite being #13 in the preseason. Another scrappy, proven team coming from the SEC.
- Maryland: Despite losing most of their scoring from last season, Brenda Frese has answered any doubts. They are a high-octane bunch, scoring 90+ ppg, shooting almost 50%, and rank in the top 10 in scoring margin. I believe their super stud freshmen, Angel Reese, is also back from injury.
- Baylor: technically the reigning champs. Mulkey knows how to win and beat anyone including any of the top teams out there. However, I question their squad with no dominant post as they have had in the last decade or so. However they make up this up with the ultra athleticism of Smith (6-2), Richard (6-2), and Carrington (5-11). As projected, I would love to see them meet UConn in the E8.
- Last, but certainly not least, UConn: yeah they haven't gotten past the F4 since Stewart (finally) graduated in 2016 but as always, they have Geno, multiple #1 ranked players coming out of HS (Bueckers, Williams, and technically Westbrook since the actual top ranked player graduated early last season), and an embarrassment of HS AAs/top international talent. They have been cursed in the F4 round but are are 11-0 going into the final game. The aforementioned Bueckers is another generational talent in the making, but Williams/Westbrook are streaky shooters, Nelson-Ododa always seems to fade against top competition, and turnovers seem to be a thing with the recent Husky squads. The rest of their freshmen class are probably playing better than Oregon's top ranked rookie class coming out of HS. They play fast, uber-efficient, high IQ offense and have defense specialists in Griffin. Despite all of this, this is probably our best chance to snag a championship away from Geno, since they have another #1 player in Azzi (Fudd) coming in next season to team up with PB.
Seems to be shaping up to be a highly anticipated big dance this season with many contenders that have the chance to get crowned on April 4. As TV has expressed on multiple occasions, I really want to see this team go all the way and have all their hard work and sacrifice pay off with #3 for the program. Let the games begin and GO CARDs!!!