Posts: 1,065
Threads: 80
Joined: Aug 2017
The pessimistic take is that these offers going out suggests that we don't have a likely path forward with Brock Glenn, Emory Williams, or anybody else of defensibly plausible Plan B status for 2023 and are moving forward with 2024 recruiting so urgently we're going to make these offers even before junior seasons have started, notwithstanding Mack's low profile (albeit some offers that make it possible services are lagging) and our previous experience with Jack West. Our QB recruiting has declined so much that we don't have confidence we can get a whale like Julian Sayin, Jadyn Davis, or Elijah Brown, and given the loss of Lonergan we are being honest with ourselves and know that we absolutely need an at least plausible 2024 QB. No room for gambling. Maybe we can go for a two QB class and still gun for Sayin, Davis, Brown, or somebody else, but the idea of going Patu-Daniels-nothing and then missing out on a plausible QB was just unacceptable.
Because I know many will want to go there, a stab at an optimistic read: it's early in 2024 recruiting, the services are quite fallible at this stage, and our coaches evaluated Austin Mack against other candidates for an offer and just love Mack so much that it's worth a pre-junior year offer. I suspect hedging bets/convincing ourselves he's great like we did with Patu is the more likely story.
Anyway, Austin Mack is rated the #35 QB by one leading service and the #48 QB by another and, per my analysis of Stanford recruiting historically anything that isn't top 15 is below-average for Stanford and anything that isn't top 20 is straight-up slumming. Have to hope services are late on this one (and offers suggest that may be possible) but still hard to see this being a top dozen kind of QB, which in itself is a sign of a drop-off in Stanford QB recruiting. I don't love the idea of becoming a Folsom welfare program. Aside from Jake Browning - who we declined to offer despite being a much bigger prospect than Patu and Mack and us passing on Rosen as a QB that year! - Folsom doesn't have a great history with QBs at the next level. Mack, like Patu before him, gets the offer before even being QB1 at the high school level.
Elijah Brown, on the other hand, is a whale.
We've now offered Patu without starting for Folsom, Daniels based on in-person workout without moving targets, and Mack without starting for Folsom.....