SamuelMcF may have a different perspective but I am not sure I view “commitable offers” as that useful of a concept anymore. I think the impulse is to judge by the old offer theory and that’s certainly my rationale for reporting offers in these analyses. The revealed preferences of actual college coaches with wins/jobs on the line is one of the most revealing signals we get in the recruiting process. No doubt. But offers don’t hew to old notions and any one or two given schools offering does not contain the information it used to, and not just because some offers are commitable and some aren’t. Much more than a binary it’s really a spectrum. Some prospects get offered because they’d help the graduation rate and locker room and are acceptable takes from s football perspective and some get offered because coaches view them as big-time difference makers. Some get offered when they have a lot of potential ahead of them, others when boards clarify, others as outright backup plans. Some get offered and then get occasional touch points to keep them on the hook if needed, others are priorities such that they get a full court press. Some get genuine commitable offers until a class/position ostensibly fills up, but others would have a commitable offer no matter what no matter when they commit.
In light of all of these, I take the offer portion of my four dimensions in terms of overall impression rather than as a mathematical counting exercise. Is a recruit strictly regional or somewhat national or bona fide national? Are there any red flags in terms of programs you’d think would offer not offering? Are the offers predominantly from teams that wall paper the country with offers or are they some really selective ones?
What I'd say about Farrell's profile beyond what I already said:
I don't think there's much doubt his profile has declined over time. In August 2021, 247 ran an article about Farrell just missing the cut for top 100 prospects nationally. Two years later they don't even have him top 100 wide receivers in the nation. We're talking about somebody dropping from borderline whale in very early estimations to borderline top 1000. It's somewhat akin to the drop we saw for Silas Starr and, obviously, estimations of somebody as they're finishing their junior year mean a lot more than estimations of somebody as they're finishing their freshman year. For similar reasons, the Washington, Washington State, and Arizona offers mean very little to me.
If you read all the 247 and Rivals articles all time about Farrell (something I do as part of my analyses for these commitments) you'd also pick up that recruiting services and colleges were very intrigued by Farrell because of potential, namely that elite speed could eventually unlock much greater play. As three successive high school seasons passed without ever breaking 15 yards per catch (and only once breaking 12.5!), the enthusiasm dissipated. It's harder to be excited about potential the closer you get to fruition rather than just being able to dream about the road ahead. Put bluntly, Farrell has shown in a high-profile competitive environment that his speed does not translate to the football field and he does not stretch defenses.
The more you dig into Farrell the more clear the comparisons become: Warren Reuland, Isaiah Brandt-Sims, Bryce Farrell, Silas Starr....none of that is super encouraging. The best I can do by way of an optimistic comparison is Michael Rector, and the real reason for optimism is Troy Taylor. Maybe our new coach and his emphasis on spacing and finding different uses for different talents/body types/skills will unlock something here. We got usefulness out of Rector and I think Taylor and Osborne can arguably inspire at least as much confidence as Shaw and Sanford/Pritchard did back in the day.
In light of all of these, I take the offer portion of my four dimensions in terms of overall impression rather than as a mathematical counting exercise. Is a recruit strictly regional or somewhat national or bona fide national? Are there any red flags in terms of programs you’d think would offer not offering? Are the offers predominantly from teams that wall paper the country with offers or are they some really selective ones?
What I'd say about Farrell's profile beyond what I already said:
I don't think there's much doubt his profile has declined over time. In August 2021, 247 ran an article about Farrell just missing the cut for top 100 prospects nationally. Two years later they don't even have him top 100 wide receivers in the nation. We're talking about somebody dropping from borderline whale in very early estimations to borderline top 1000. It's somewhat akin to the drop we saw for Silas Starr and, obviously, estimations of somebody as they're finishing their junior year mean a lot more than estimations of somebody as they're finishing their freshman year. For similar reasons, the Washington, Washington State, and Arizona offers mean very little to me.
If you read all the 247 and Rivals articles all time about Farrell (something I do as part of my analyses for these commitments) you'd also pick up that recruiting services and colleges were very intrigued by Farrell because of potential, namely that elite speed could eventually unlock much greater play. As three successive high school seasons passed without ever breaking 15 yards per catch (and only once breaking 12.5!), the enthusiasm dissipated. It's harder to be excited about potential the closer you get to fruition rather than just being able to dream about the road ahead. Put bluntly, Farrell has shown in a high-profile competitive environment that his speed does not translate to the football field and he does not stretch defenses.
The more you dig into Farrell the more clear the comparisons become: Warren Reuland, Isaiah Brandt-Sims, Bryce Farrell, Silas Starr....none of that is super encouraging. The best I can do by way of an optimistic comparison is Michael Rector, and the real reason for optimism is Troy Taylor. Maybe our new coach and his emphasis on spacing and finding different uses for different talents/body types/skills will unlock something here. We got usefulness out of Rector and I think Taylor and Osborne can arguably inspire at least as much confidence as Shaw and Sanford/Pritchard did back in the day.

