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06-17-2021, 12:31 PM
(This post was last modified: 06-17-2021, 01:05 PM by
ColoradoTree.)
Forde's sixth-place finish in the 200 will very likely be enough to get her to Tokyo as part of the 4 x 200m relay team, too. We'll have to wait until the end of Trials to find out for sure, but sixth in the 100 or 200 has usually punched tickets in the past. The difference this year is the addition of the 1500m to the women's Olympic program, but without a corresponding increase in the total team max, so the 6th-placed 100/200 finishers are slightly less likely to make it this time around.
We lost that relay to the Australians at the 2019 Worlds, but won it at Worlds in '13, '15, and '17, and at the Olympics in 2012 and 2016. So, she has to be feeling pretty good about the chance of coming home with some hardware with a relay prelim swim. Based on 200 free times this year, the Australians have to be favored in that relay, but you never know.
For those of you who don't know, the Olympic swimming roster has a max of 26 men and 26 women. The winners in every event, plus the top 4 in 100/200 frees, make it automatically. If there's room, the 2nd-place finisher in every event also goes. If there is still room, the 5th place finishers in the 100 and 200 free go. The last priority is the 6th-place finishers in the 100 and 200 frees.
There are 14 events, so in theory, each event could have 14 different winners, with a top 4 in the 100 and 200 that are completely different. If so, that would be 20 qualifying swimmers, meaning not every second-place finisher would make the team. But that's never how it shakes out--good 100m freestylers are often good 200m freestylers, or someone is good at both the 200 and 400, etc. The more swimmers who win multiple events means fewer swimmers are in that first group of event winners, and thus the next priority groups can make it in.
Brooke makes it if there are ten multiple qualifiers on the women's side. Right now, we're at 2, with Ledecky winning the 200, 400, and 1500 freestyles. Barring calamity, she'll add another in the 400, meaning she opens up 3 spots due to her wins. Simone Manuel is favored in the 50 and 100 free, so that would open up another spot. (Manuel was about 2.5 seconds slower in this morning's heat than her fastest time coming into Trials, but presumably that was done to save energy for semis tonight.) Regan Smith already won the 100 back, but she's expected to win the 200 back as well, as she's the world record holder in that event, so that would be another. She's also a threat in the 200 fly (#2 on the psych sheet coming in, but that's behind Hali Flickinger, who is great in that event), which would be yet another opened spot if she pulls that off. And even if Smith doesn't win the 200 fly, her other qualifications would mean that the second priority group of 2nd-place finishers would be a bit smaller, so that helps Brooke's chances just as much. (And Flickinger was 2nd in the 400m IM, so even if she wins and Smith is second, that priority group of second-place finishers shrinks by one more.) So, she's rooting for chalk. A big chance for that is in the 100 free, where she's hoping the top 6 (and top 4, especially) are women who have already qualified otherwise. So, she wants Manuel, Schmitt, Huske, and Curzan to have big 100 swims.
Here's a finals schedule, night by night, with expected multiple qualifiers noted for each women's race:
June 17:
200 fly: Flickinger (2nd in 400 IM) is favored, with Regan Smith (1st in 100 back, expected to win 200 back) expected to take second. In whatever order, these two finishing top two helps Forde.
June 18:
200 breaststroke: Annie Lazor is favored, with Lilly King (1st in the 100) fighting with Ella Nelson and Escobedo for second. Forde is thus rooting for King to be in the top two.
100 freestyle: Simone Manuel (also expected to win the 50) is favored, with Abbey Weitzeil, Erika Brown, Claire Curzan (2nd in 100 fly, expected to take 2nd in 50 free), Torri Huske (1st in 100 fly, could also challenge in the 50 free), Kate Douglass (2nd in 200 IM), Gretchen Walsh, and others all with good times coming into Trials, and some swimmers disappointed in other events coming through with big swims in the heats like Olivia Smoliga, Catie DeLoof, Natalie Hinds, and Linnea Mack. (We'll get more clarity after tonight's semis, since several of the favorites, including Manuel, didn't push the pace too much in their morning heats.) But Forde's interests are served best by Manuel, Curzan, Douglass, and Huske being in the top 6.
June 19:
200 back: Regan Smith (1st in 100 back) favored, with Phoebe Bacon, Kathleen Baker, and Rhyan White (2nd in 100 back) in the mix.
800 free: Ledecky (1st in 200, 400, and 1500) heavily favored, with Leah Smith likely to take second, but Ally McHugh and Bella Sims (5th in 200) in the mix.
June 20:
50 free: Manuel is favored, with Curzan (2nd in 100 fly, in the 100 free mix) second on the psych sheet, Huske (1st in 100 fly, in the 100 free mix) third, Weitzeil (likely to qualify in the 100) fourth, Kate Douglass (2nd in 200 IM, in the 100 mix) fifth, and Erika Brown (in the 100 free mix) sixth. This event is very likely to produce two swimmers who have already made the team, so while it might come down to the last day to clinch Forde's spot on the team, the 50 free should do it.
