(11-02-2021, 07:19 AM)gailtate Wrote: (11-02-2021, 06:56 AM)Austroturf Wrote: (11-01-2021, 07:29 AM)gailtate Wrote: (11-01-2021, 02:42 AM)Austroturf Wrote: Just a few additional thoughts on the current malaise in Cardinal football:
1) There's no denying the program is trending downward. The math is clear on this. If we look at Shaw's win percentage on a 4-year rolling average (i.e., 2011-2014, then 2012-2015, etc.), these are the numbers:
2011-2014: 77.6%
2012-2015: 77.9%
2013-2016: 75.7%
2014-2017: 72.1%
2015-2018: 74.0%
2016-2019: 60.9%
2017-2020: 58.4%
2018-2021: 51.7%
And when the 9-4 2018 season drops out of this rolling average next year, the percentage will dip well below 50% (unless there is some unexpected rebound from current trends).
2) As others have pointed out (including me in other posts), Shaw is not temperamentally suited for turnaround work. He is not the entrepreneur, but the professional manager who eventually takes over and runs the going concern when the start-up work is done.
3) Shaw isn't going anywhere. At $8M+ per year and an AD who puts no pressure on him, Shaw would be a fool to go anywhere else. And even though he certainly could pull the plug and become a TV commentator in the event the rigors of coaching become too much (like Petersen did), he is very unlikely to do that. So he will be the coach of this team for some years to come. Of course, I could be wrong on this. There was the assumption that Gary Patterson had tenure for life at TCU, but after 20 years at the helm and a 3-5 start in 2021, he is out. Still, I don't think we have an AD and administration at Stanford that are predisposed to making that move right now.
4) Assuming Shaw remains, I see only one hope for positive change in the current program: new coordinators and new assistants. If Shaw cannot be the change, then he needs to hire the change and let his staff have free rein. He needs to become full CEO and let the others be full COOs.
5) If this doesn't happen, then I think all of us need to get accustomed to mediocre to bad teams in the future, with now and then a lower tier bowl, but most often no post-season. The Shaw-Pritchard-Anderson triumvirate is on an undeniable downward slope. It may appear to be a harsh assessment, but I currently see this coaching staff as incapable of maximizing the talent we have. In short, the team is less than the sum of the parts, which is a clear sign of poor player development and poor coaching. And the trend towards more injuries is just one integral part of the overall malaise. Donofrio (quoted above by Spiny_Norman) was correct: "If nothing changes, nothing changes".
On a related matter, I am concerned about McKee's progress. After some break-out games early in the season, he appears to be regressing. We have seen this picture before (Chryst, Costello). McKee was one of the few bright spots this season; and if his star begins to dim, then it's truly dark for the current offense (where it is already dark enough).
Good summary. And you sledge-hammered the nail re McKee. Shaw is convinced that he and Pritchard are QB Whisperers (Gawd, what a joke) but look at what's happened since then, most conspicously with Costello and now McKee. Shaw basically rode Luck, CMac and Bryce Love. These guys masked the rot. Now its exposed. Oversimplification, of course, but it tells the story. Shaw's time came and went. It's as plain as the empty seats in the stadium.
Unfortunately, regression seems to have become a common occurrence in Cardinal football, and not just at QB. A few prominent examples come to mind (I am sure there are others). Quenton Meeks was a stalwart in his freshman year (2015) and never really could build on that. Nate Herbig also peaked early and sort of fizzled out, but has found life with the Eagles and is in the rotation on 2nd team. Foster Sarrell never really lived up to his billing, so it is hard to talk about regression, but here is an article about his underwhelming tenure at Stanford: https://scorebooklive.com/washington/202...ruit-ever/
At QB, both Chryst and Costello had injuries to contend with, so their respective declines in performance involved other factors. Mills did not regress; but with only 13 actual games played, there is not much of a performance record to look at. It actually feels as if we missed the Mills "era". He was recruited and signed with great fanfare, struggled with injuries early, traded starts with Costello in 2019, won four out of five games as a starter in the pandemic-shortened 2020 and then disappeared. That was the Mills era. Wishing him all the best in the NFL, but somehow my high expectations for what he could do for Cardinal football were never met. Hopefully, McKee is not the next to start out strong, then fade.
Points well taken. Still, the number of injuries is statistically significant, as is the under-performance of above-par athletes. One after another after another. Begs the question: where's the depth?
Yes, injuries have piled up. And, as well as the question about depth, there is also the question about player development. Barring catastrophic injury, a player should get better during the course of a college career. This is the norm. Too many promising players have recently gone the other direction.
