11-02-2025, 02:07 PM
1. Farewell, home win streak. It was nice while it lasted. This was a harsh (if redundant) reminder of how bad we are and how far we have to go to build any meaningful enthusiasm, much less momentum. Even after winning four home games in a row, the home crowd did not turn out in the way I would hope home wins would start generating attendance. The product on the field unfortunately validated the views of those who still want to see more before investing time in heading to the games. It was especially discouraging that we got handled so easily in a home game where the opponent had one of its all-time most difficult road trips (Pitt last played at Cal, USC, and Oregon in the 1960s, at UCLA in 1971, and at Washington in 1979) and we had four takeaways and other things that made a true freshman QB look discomfited. It was befitting one of the worst teams in the land to lose with that kind of home field advantage by 15 (by the way, not a cover as the line was 13.5) to a non-ranked team missing numerous star players and to have that margin only be thanks to a garbage time touchdown against backups and three opponent end zone or goal line turnovers. This is the fifth time in six games we've had a scoreboard outcome not even befitting a top 100 team. That makes me wonder if maybe the heinous SP+ ranking of #115 might hold as much water as the still really bad Sagarin ranking of #86. In either case, this looks like the wasted year many of us saw coming after Taylor was initially given a third year.
2. We were fortunate to get out of there only losing by 15. More than a third of our points and none of our opponent's came in garbage time. Our only non-garbage time touchdown was a terrible throw by Gulbranson that easily could have been intercepted if not returned (but great play by Williams), and the Marcus Brown first down to help us get three of our other six non-garbage points was a similar story of a dangerous throw we got lucky on. Pitt coughed the ball up three times in the end zone or at the doorstep of the goal line, and they seemed more poor decisions than spectacular Stanford plays (though I definitely give credit to the defense for creating turnovers for once). This was uglier than the scoreboard suggested (but the opposite being true against Miami reminds us that these things can even out). We scored 1.0 points per non-garbage drive, making the #28 points per drive defense look like #4. If you count the pick six against the offense, we netted less than half a point per drive the offense was on the field, less than half the offensive productivity of what would befit the worst offense in America. The silver lining saving it from crossing from ugly to fugly was that the defense played credibly in the face of not much help, as has happened several times. Giving up 2.55 points per non-garbage drive made the #25 points per drive offense look like #44.
3. This was one where the eye test for assessing the offense was harsher than stats. The overall offensive stats I'm going to relate reflect that the enemy gets a vote. Pitt has a good defense. We weren't far behind their season average in yards per play allowed and did better than Duquesne, Central Michigan, Boston College, and Syracuse and almost identically to Louisville. It's generally tough sledding for offenses against Pitt. I don't want to make too much of this point, however, as Pitt was playing without their mega star safety Brookins (the #6 best graded safety in the nation), one of their two star linebackers Biles (the #3 best graded LB in the ACC), and a starting safety, which is also a good reminder that by this point in the season everybody is banged up. Ultimately, this was the second game in a row in which we played a good team credibly for a stretch but bad interceptions became too much to overcome. Gulbranson also really cost us with a sack to knock us out of field goal range in a 21-13 game in the third quarter. We can't put it all on the QB when the offensive line is the struggle-fest it is but it's hard to escape the role interceptions have played the last two weeks.
4. Part of the reason we were vulnerable to dying by Gulbranson's sword is that there was no feasible way to establish the run or balance in our offense. This was our first negative yards rushing game (and therefore of course our lowest yards per carry game) since the 2007 Oregon State game. Obviously the worst rushing performance in 225 games is not good. Performing that badly is always a shock, but if there was one game where one might have bet on it happening this would have been it. Pitt has a phenomenal run defense and we should have known that going in. It makes me think a bit less of a Reich as a gameplanner that he apparently thought we could have success on the ground today. He said as much in the post-game press conference and evidently thought so judging by the ill-advised decision to go for it on fourth down in our own territory on the fourth play of the game, against one of the best run defenses in the nation, with his team having one of the worst run offenses in the country, playing this game with a slew of backups at running back and offensive line, and with defense clearly being a more reliable unit we should bet on than offense. I could have told anybody who asked before the game that this matchup was not going to work out for our run game. Now that this one is in the books, Pitt is #1 in America in fewest yards per carry allowed and we are #135 in yards per carry gained (New Mexico State saving us from dead last). Facing that challenge we had to get unbalanced, with our most passing attempts of the year. Statistically, the bone-headed interceptions seriously marred what could have been a good passing game, but that's a bit like asking Mrs. Lincoln how she liked the play. Moreover, there were several other plays that could have been interceptions and several of the biggest passing plays were lucky or garbage-time. This was a case where we had the best yards, yards per play, touchdowns, and passer rating we've had in over a month and better than our season average in all respects (and we did better than Pitt's yards per attempt allowed), but I feel like stats would be lying if one read this as thinking the passing game was good. There were a fair amount of empty calories and the interceptions torpedoed us. Considering that four interceptions and no passing touchdowns would have been just as fair a representation as the 2:3 TD:INT ratio we actually ended up with, this cannot be considered a good passing game.
5. The defense had a pretty middle of the road game compared to Pitt opponents, giving up fewer yards per play than four Pitt foes, including Florida State and NC State in the Heintschel era. To the extent the defense played fairly well it was about pass defense, which was right on both our season averages and Pitt's norm in passing offense. Notably, it was the second worst game of the Heintschel era, which dovetails with my eyeball impression that we made things uncomfortable for him. That being said, it's beyond me why he risked the ball as recklessly as he did in the red zone and why he risked his body as recklessly as he did in a game they had under control. True freshmen gonna true freshmen sometimes. Run defense was a less happy story. In fact, it constituted a breakdown. We had our second highest yards per carry allowed and that was despite Pitt playing without their star running back Reid and in a year in which Pitt has struggled to run the ball, with a yards per carry clip bad for #112 in the nation. We let them get right against us, gaining over half a yard per carry more than they have against any Power Four team, even the horrible Syracuse and Boston College run defenses. That's a super ugly run defense game by us, exemplified by Heintschel's comical scramble for a first down when he was dead to rights in the backfield. Low key horrifying run defense and tackling performance by Stanford, despite the overall game being a solid one for the defense. The defense does, again, get a lot of credit for actually forcing turnovers. There was luck involved on all four, but ballhawking defenses create their own luck and we have seen precious little of this kind of takeaway game. That was good to see.
2. We were fortunate to get out of there only losing by 15. More than a third of our points and none of our opponent's came in garbage time. Our only non-garbage time touchdown was a terrible throw by Gulbranson that easily could have been intercepted if not returned (but great play by Williams), and the Marcus Brown first down to help us get three of our other six non-garbage points was a similar story of a dangerous throw we got lucky on. Pitt coughed the ball up three times in the end zone or at the doorstep of the goal line, and they seemed more poor decisions than spectacular Stanford plays (though I definitely give credit to the defense for creating turnovers for once). This was uglier than the scoreboard suggested (but the opposite being true against Miami reminds us that these things can even out). We scored 1.0 points per non-garbage drive, making the #28 points per drive defense look like #4. If you count the pick six against the offense, we netted less than half a point per drive the offense was on the field, less than half the offensive productivity of what would befit the worst offense in America. The silver lining saving it from crossing from ugly to fugly was that the defense played credibly in the face of not much help, as has happened several times. Giving up 2.55 points per non-garbage drive made the #25 points per drive offense look like #44.
3. This was one where the eye test for assessing the offense was harsher than stats. The overall offensive stats I'm going to relate reflect that the enemy gets a vote. Pitt has a good defense. We weren't far behind their season average in yards per play allowed and did better than Duquesne, Central Michigan, Boston College, and Syracuse and almost identically to Louisville. It's generally tough sledding for offenses against Pitt. I don't want to make too much of this point, however, as Pitt was playing without their mega star safety Brookins (the #6 best graded safety in the nation), one of their two star linebackers Biles (the #3 best graded LB in the ACC), and a starting safety, which is also a good reminder that by this point in the season everybody is banged up. Ultimately, this was the second game in a row in which we played a good team credibly for a stretch but bad interceptions became too much to overcome. Gulbranson also really cost us with a sack to knock us out of field goal range in a 21-13 game in the third quarter. We can't put it all on the QB when the offensive line is the struggle-fest it is but it's hard to escape the role interceptions have played the last two weeks.
4. Part of the reason we were vulnerable to dying by Gulbranson's sword is that there was no feasible way to establish the run or balance in our offense. This was our first negative yards rushing game (and therefore of course our lowest yards per carry game) since the 2007 Oregon State game. Obviously the worst rushing performance in 225 games is not good. Performing that badly is always a shock, but if there was one game where one might have bet on it happening this would have been it. Pitt has a phenomenal run defense and we should have known that going in. It makes me think a bit less of a Reich as a gameplanner that he apparently thought we could have success on the ground today. He said as much in the post-game press conference and evidently thought so judging by the ill-advised decision to go for it on fourth down in our own territory on the fourth play of the game, against one of the best run defenses in the nation, with his team having one of the worst run offenses in the country, playing this game with a slew of backups at running back and offensive line, and with defense clearly being a more reliable unit we should bet on than offense. I could have told anybody who asked before the game that this matchup was not going to work out for our run game. Now that this one is in the books, Pitt is #1 in America in fewest yards per carry allowed and we are #135 in yards per carry gained (New Mexico State saving us from dead last). Facing that challenge we had to get unbalanced, with our most passing attempts of the year. Statistically, the bone-headed interceptions seriously marred what could have been a good passing game, but that's a bit like asking Mrs. Lincoln how she liked the play. Moreover, there were several other plays that could have been interceptions and several of the biggest passing plays were lucky or garbage-time. This was a case where we had the best yards, yards per play, touchdowns, and passer rating we've had in over a month and better than our season average in all respects (and we did better than Pitt's yards per attempt allowed), but I feel like stats would be lying if one read this as thinking the passing game was good. There were a fair amount of empty calories and the interceptions torpedoed us. Considering that four interceptions and no passing touchdowns would have been just as fair a representation as the 2:3 TD:INT ratio we actually ended up with, this cannot be considered a good passing game.
5. The defense had a pretty middle of the road game compared to Pitt opponents, giving up fewer yards per play than four Pitt foes, including Florida State and NC State in the Heintschel era. To the extent the defense played fairly well it was about pass defense, which was right on both our season averages and Pitt's norm in passing offense. Notably, it was the second worst game of the Heintschel era, which dovetails with my eyeball impression that we made things uncomfortable for him. That being said, it's beyond me why he risked the ball as recklessly as he did in the red zone and why he risked his body as recklessly as he did in a game they had under control. True freshmen gonna true freshmen sometimes. Run defense was a less happy story. In fact, it constituted a breakdown. We had our second highest yards per carry allowed and that was despite Pitt playing without their star running back Reid and in a year in which Pitt has struggled to run the ball, with a yards per carry clip bad for #112 in the nation. We let them get right against us, gaining over half a yard per carry more than they have against any Power Four team, even the horrible Syracuse and Boston College run defenses. That's a super ugly run defense game by us, exemplified by Heintschel's comical scramble for a first down when he was dead to rights in the backfield. Low key horrifying run defense and tackling performance by Stanford, despite the overall game being a solid one for the defense. The defense does, again, get a lot of credit for actually forcing turnovers. There was luck involved on all four, but ballhawking defenses create their own luck and we have seen precious little of this kind of takeaway game. That was good to see.


