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04-30-2024, 09:36 AM
(This post was last modified: 04-30-2024, 09:44 AM by
ColoradoTree.)
One fun detail is that the seeding is based on the unreleased ITA rankings after the conference tournaments finish up, and while those rankings should come out today, there's a website, collegetennisranks.com, that does a great job of doing the calculations for what they should look like.
So, we'll be #2, LSU should be #32, and Baylor should be #34. #1 Oklahoma State gets #33 Alabama and #36 SMU, so pretty much as expected. But there's a big ol' quirk in #3 Michigan's region. Their 2 seed is #30 Notre Dame, but the 3 seed is #80 Xavier, who is the 16th-lowest-ranked team in the field, so they really should have been a 4 seed. But instead they made #74 Cal Poly a 4 seed in USC's region and that bumped Xavier up to a 3 seed. I mean, it doesn't really matter--Michigan will get an easy match and then a match against a 30ish team, just like we will--but it's a head scratcher from a process perspective.
As for the Pac-12 teams:
All the seeded teams should be expected to win their regionals, but there are varying degrees of difficulty.
* USC gets San Diego as their 2 seed, and San Diego won that match in the regular season, 4-3 (winning doubles and the top three courts). Sure, this match will be at USC, and it's fair by rankings, but that's a rough second round matchup.
* Cal gets a very rough draw as well--Auburn is ranked #17 and is the highest-ranked non-host. By rights, they should be playing at the 16th seed, but that's another SEC team in Tennessee, so that's why not. But then why not #15 NC State? NC State caught #19 South Carolina, so it's not like they have an easy second round match, but then it's two SEC teams at #13 and #14, so the next option is #12 Ohio State, who got #29 Vanderbilt as their 2 seed, so Cal unquestionably got a little hosed there. But all the ACC and SEC teams in the teens and twenties, combined with the obligation to avoid conference matchups in the regionals, makes it tough to have a perfectly fair bracket by ranking.
* UCLA has the smoothest path overall, though they have #58 Denver as their 4 seed, and DU should be a 3 seed, as I noted below. But UCLA will roll in that match, and then they'd get #25 Texas Tech, and while that's not a match you take lightly, UCLA shouldn't really have all that much trouble there.
Moving onto the unseeded teams:
* ASU should beat Northwestern, but I don't see them beating Pepperdine in Malibu;
* Oklahoma should handle Arizona; and
* Washington should really beat Princeton, but I don't see how they beat UVA in the second round.
Looking Ahead to Super Regionals:
* If we get there, we'd get a rematch of last year's NCAA semifinal against NC State, when the Wolfpack beat us 4-0. But this is a very different NC State team, as they no longer have super-freshman Diana Shnaider (now off to the pros) or Alana Smith, both of whom were Top 15 players when we ran into them last year. They're too good for us to just roll over them, but I'd call us decent favorites there.
* If Cal gets past Auburn, I wouldn't be shocked for them to beat Georgia in the Super Regional, though having those at campus sites has been a massive benefit for the host school since the NCAA went from having the final 16 at the final site to just the final 8. Can you imagine a Stanford-Cal rematch in a NCAA quarterfinal?
* UCLA would likely host Texas in a Super Regional, a replay of a match UCLA won 5-2 in the regular season, also at home.
* If USC gets past San Diego, they'd go to Malibu to face Pepperdine, and the Waves won both regular-season matchups, 4-2 at National Indoors and 4-0 in Malibu a month ago. USC has the talent to pull an upset, but I don't think they will.
I mean, ultimately the NCAA tournament is always a difficult affair, but we don't have a whole heckuva lot to complain about in terms of our path. Well, at least until a potential final, when you're looking at playing for a national championship against #1 Oklahoma State in Stillwater. So, what are the odds Oklahoma State falls short of the final?
* I just can't see them losing in the first three rounds. Maybe #16 Tennessee or #22 Duke finds lightning in a bottle in the Super Regional? But I doubt it.
* They'd get the UCLA-Texas winner in the quarterfinal. Oklahoma State was pushed to the brink by UCLA, just beating them 4-3 at ITA Kickoff Weekend (Stanford might well be the #1 team in the country if that match had gone the other way, as Oklahoma State would've been deprived of 4 top wins at National Indoors, including one over us.) And the same is true of Texas, who lost to them 4-3 twice--once at National Indoors and once in the conference slate--before dropping the Big 12 championship match 4-0 (though the three remaining singles matches were all in third sets, so it could've gone the same way).
* If they win the quarterfinal, they'd get the UNC-UVA winner in the semi. (It's gonna be UNC.) UNC was the preseason #1 team, and while the shine was off a little following UNC's stumbles at National Indoors, the Heels only lost once more the rest of the way, avenging their 2 losses to NC State with a 4-0 win in the ACC semi, and avenging its 0-4 loss to UVA at National Indoors with two 4-1 wins, one in the ACC final. UNC is cruising right now, and no one wants to play them. I don't want to play them. Heck, I don't know if I'd rather play Oklahoma State in Stillwater for a national championship or UNC. Both are terrifying.
But there's one big potential issue here. All the teams have to list all of their potential singles players and doubles teams, in order of strength. And Eleana Yu isn't on our list, suggesting she's injured and won't be able to go at any point in the NCAA tournament (or, even worse, that she's unhappy and sitting out ahead of a potential transfer). That might explain why Xu keeps getting run out there at 6. But Yu also played in (and won) the penultimate regular season match at UW, so whatever the issue is, it's something more recent.
That means if we suffer an injury in the singles lineup, Houghton will slide in at 6 rather than Yu. And that's a big, big drop. Maybe someone at the Stanford Daily can ask Lele a question or two?