10-26-2025, 02:54 PM
1. Well I had a great weekend in Miami with my best buds, and half of the football game was a great part of it. It was a pleasant surprise to compete as well as we did for as long as we did but eventually the game went how everybody thought it would. We are too badly out-athleted by good teams like Miami to be able to withstand bad quarterback play or big momentum swinging plays in the return game. We still have yet to have a respectable showing on the road, with scoreboard outcomes befitting #83, #101, #154, #121, and now #125. [At home it’s been #74, #125, and #30, and the net result of all of that is Sagarin #92 on the season.] Probably the best part of the weekend from a football perspective was seeing Luck in his element at the Friday night alumni huddle and at the pre-game tailgate. Glad he’s on our side. But the game itself, like every game this season save one, shows how very far we still have to go.
2. We were more competitive than the final score indicated, though I take cold comfort in that when we let a second half tie turn into garbage time within the third quarter and when we showed such little fight or competence in garbage time itself. Still, that Miami had 176 yards and 21 points after the game was effectively decided with Gulbranson’s second interception made the final result a lot uglier than it was when the game was really being contested. Miami had 7.33 yards per play and 7 points per drive in garbage time but before that it was 4.56 yards per play and 3.43 points per non-garbage drive, the former of which is a great performance by the defense (the best full game performances against them have been Florida at 4.53 yards per play and Notre Dame at 4.99) and the latter of which isn’t good (made the #40 points per drive offense look like #9) but obviously twice as good as giving up a touchdown each possession. The stats support what our eyes showed us, which was that the offense was putrid outside the one great opening drive. We scored 0.875 points per non-garbage drive, making the #20 points per drive defense look like #2. We joined Bethune-Cookman and Florida as teams kept to one score by the Hurricanes and barely edged out Florida to avoid having the worst yards per play Miami has allowed this season.
3. The defense wasn’t as superlative as it was against Florida State but it did plenty of good work before the long Toney punt returns turned the tide of the game and the Gulbranson picks put the nail in our coffin. If one finds my non-garbage yards per play calculation above somewhat cherry-picking, the full game number was lower than any teams other than Notre Dame and Florida have given up this year. It wasn’t the run defense that did it - only Bethune-Cookman and Florida have done worse in that phase - but the pass defense did a very nice job. We were above-average in all statistical respects compared to both our and Miami’s prior games. It was the second lowest passing yards and yards per attempt and third lowest passer rating of their season. It’s been a good few games for our previously beleaguered pass defense, and to my eyes we aren’t doing it with much pass rush.
4. No silver lining on offense aside from the one good scoring drive. The run game was the fifth time this year we have been held to 75 yards or less and under three yards per carry. USF is the only team to do worse on the ground against Miami. The passing game was even worse, with the worst passing yards, yards per attempt, and passer rating of our season, the worst yards per attempt since 2016. The only very small solace - more like misery loves company - is that Miami shut down Florida’s passing game similarly. It is hard at this point to sugarcoat the play we are getting at QB. Gulbranson was 91st of 104 QBs nationally in Total QBR this week. On the year he is 131st of 138, battling the Syracuse QB for the worst Power Four QB. Sadly, I can’t view that as anything other than representative considering he has been atrocious in half of our games. We have a lot of problems with our team so I don’t want to scapegoat the QB, but it appears like a glaring weak link. I have not been particularly interested in QB debates this year because I think it’s probable the 2026 QB isn’t on the roster but at this rate we might as well see what Brown and/or Rizk can do. Finally playing QB2 in garbage time could indicate more willingness to play Brown than we’ve seen to date.
5. After a weekend of libations I won’t pretend like I have very specific recall of standout players aside from noting that Tabb’s contributions on the scoring drive are hard to ignore, and High also did at least something, unlike most everybody else. [Moving the chains (first down) leaderboard: Tabb (4), High (2, also drew a pass interference), Irvin, Farrell] PFF has a very interesting data point of true freshman guard Josh Williams being our second highest graded player on offense aside from Tabb. PFF continues to view House as unplayable. Brutal to root for a team constantly relying on outgunned youngsters on the line.
6. The defense had a smattering of players with multiple positive box score plays, namely Rose, Galvan, Edwards, Patterson, Stephenson, Aybar, and Ojarikre, with the latter three needing garbage time and the last two only making their biggest plays after the game was decided. PFF thought Rose was the star. Subjectively, I would agree that Rose’s back to back plays at/behind the line of scrimmage to force a field goal that missed was the top tone-setting contribution of the game, and he also had a red zone run stop. I continue to like Galvan but PFF didn’t yesterday, nor did they like Edwards. Murray’s fourth down run stuff was one of the most fun moments of the game, doubly nice to get a glimpse of the future as we lose so many senior defensive linemen.
7. Nightmare game for the punt team and hard to overstate how much that ruined the momentum the defense had provided thanks to the first half. Flintoft had net punts of 33 to the 36 (really bad), 37 to the 29 (bad), 4 to our own 40 after a long return (disaster), 8 to our own 30 after a long return (disaster), 47 to the 24 (very good but in garbage time at that point). We had several guys make coverage tackles - Darrius Davis, Holt, Mattingly, and Edwards, mostly in damage control. I don’t even know where to start in awarding a game ball for a special teams game with so little to commend and will just assume our season-long stalwart Mattingly was probably one of our best performers as he usually is.
8. Game balls: Cole Tabb, Matt Rose, Sam Mattingly, Andy Thompson
9. It’s discouraging that after every road game we just have to say “flush it” and look forward to returning home. But at least C-House has been hospitable this year. Going 4-0 at home would seem a wild dream but it’s not that outlandish. This is a historic (long) road trip and even with the normal home field adjustment Sagarin would favor Pitt by 11, less than we were underdogs against Florida State, Boston College, and last year against Louisville. C-House really has been hospitable - wins in the last three home games we’ve been double digit underdogs. In light of that the response to yesterday indeed has to be to flush it and get to work to keep the good times rolling at home.
2. We were more competitive than the final score indicated, though I take cold comfort in that when we let a second half tie turn into garbage time within the third quarter and when we showed such little fight or competence in garbage time itself. Still, that Miami had 176 yards and 21 points after the game was effectively decided with Gulbranson’s second interception made the final result a lot uglier than it was when the game was really being contested. Miami had 7.33 yards per play and 7 points per drive in garbage time but before that it was 4.56 yards per play and 3.43 points per non-garbage drive, the former of which is a great performance by the defense (the best full game performances against them have been Florida at 4.53 yards per play and Notre Dame at 4.99) and the latter of which isn’t good (made the #40 points per drive offense look like #9) but obviously twice as good as giving up a touchdown each possession. The stats support what our eyes showed us, which was that the offense was putrid outside the one great opening drive. We scored 0.875 points per non-garbage drive, making the #20 points per drive defense look like #2. We joined Bethune-Cookman and Florida as teams kept to one score by the Hurricanes and barely edged out Florida to avoid having the worst yards per play Miami has allowed this season.
3. The defense wasn’t as superlative as it was against Florida State but it did plenty of good work before the long Toney punt returns turned the tide of the game and the Gulbranson picks put the nail in our coffin. If one finds my non-garbage yards per play calculation above somewhat cherry-picking, the full game number was lower than any teams other than Notre Dame and Florida have given up this year. It wasn’t the run defense that did it - only Bethune-Cookman and Florida have done worse in that phase - but the pass defense did a very nice job. We were above-average in all statistical respects compared to both our and Miami’s prior games. It was the second lowest passing yards and yards per attempt and third lowest passer rating of their season. It’s been a good few games for our previously beleaguered pass defense, and to my eyes we aren’t doing it with much pass rush.
4. No silver lining on offense aside from the one good scoring drive. The run game was the fifth time this year we have been held to 75 yards or less and under three yards per carry. USF is the only team to do worse on the ground against Miami. The passing game was even worse, with the worst passing yards, yards per attempt, and passer rating of our season, the worst yards per attempt since 2016. The only very small solace - more like misery loves company - is that Miami shut down Florida’s passing game similarly. It is hard at this point to sugarcoat the play we are getting at QB. Gulbranson was 91st of 104 QBs nationally in Total QBR this week. On the year he is 131st of 138, battling the Syracuse QB for the worst Power Four QB. Sadly, I can’t view that as anything other than representative considering he has been atrocious in half of our games. We have a lot of problems with our team so I don’t want to scapegoat the QB, but it appears like a glaring weak link. I have not been particularly interested in QB debates this year because I think it’s probable the 2026 QB isn’t on the roster but at this rate we might as well see what Brown and/or Rizk can do. Finally playing QB2 in garbage time could indicate more willingness to play Brown than we’ve seen to date.
5. After a weekend of libations I won’t pretend like I have very specific recall of standout players aside from noting that Tabb’s contributions on the scoring drive are hard to ignore, and High also did at least something, unlike most everybody else. [Moving the chains (first down) leaderboard: Tabb (4), High (2, also drew a pass interference), Irvin, Farrell] PFF has a very interesting data point of true freshman guard Josh Williams being our second highest graded player on offense aside from Tabb. PFF continues to view House as unplayable. Brutal to root for a team constantly relying on outgunned youngsters on the line.
6. The defense had a smattering of players with multiple positive box score plays, namely Rose, Galvan, Edwards, Patterson, Stephenson, Aybar, and Ojarikre, with the latter three needing garbage time and the last two only making their biggest plays after the game was decided. PFF thought Rose was the star. Subjectively, I would agree that Rose’s back to back plays at/behind the line of scrimmage to force a field goal that missed was the top tone-setting contribution of the game, and he also had a red zone run stop. I continue to like Galvan but PFF didn’t yesterday, nor did they like Edwards. Murray’s fourth down run stuff was one of the most fun moments of the game, doubly nice to get a glimpse of the future as we lose so many senior defensive linemen.
7. Nightmare game for the punt team and hard to overstate how much that ruined the momentum the defense had provided thanks to the first half. Flintoft had net punts of 33 to the 36 (really bad), 37 to the 29 (bad), 4 to our own 40 after a long return (disaster), 8 to our own 30 after a long return (disaster), 47 to the 24 (very good but in garbage time at that point). We had several guys make coverage tackles - Darrius Davis, Holt, Mattingly, and Edwards, mostly in damage control. I don’t even know where to start in awarding a game ball for a special teams game with so little to commend and will just assume our season-long stalwart Mattingly was probably one of our best performers as he usually is.
8. Game balls: Cole Tabb, Matt Rose, Sam Mattingly, Andy Thompson
9. It’s discouraging that after every road game we just have to say “flush it” and look forward to returning home. But at least C-House has been hospitable this year. Going 4-0 at home would seem a wild dream but it’s not that outlandish. This is a historic (long) road trip and even with the normal home field adjustment Sagarin would favor Pitt by 11, less than we were underdogs against Florida State, Boston College, and last year against Louisville. C-House really has been hospitable - wins in the last three home games we’ve been double digit underdogs. In light of that the response to yesterday indeed has to be to flush it and get to work to keep the good times rolling at home.
