Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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+--- Thread: Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine (/thread-23071.html)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-16-2022

(10-16-2022, 06:50 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1581815220128792576?s=46&t=obD9M2ZT_fx8iy9fB9g4fw

Could be a big week for Kherson.

BC

I do hope so! For a while it appeared that Ukraine would take Mylove, but I guess that hasn't happened yet. Rain is forecast in Kherson for next Sunday. The weather around Kiev has already broken and the rain has started there. While rain won't stop the advance, it will slow it down. Time is running out. Lets hope for a successful week.

It does appear that the Russians actually did have a second line of defense. Ukraine may be on the verge of breaching that as well, but it looks like the Russian effort in Kherson is not being run by total incompetents. They are doing some things right. Russia has not reinforced the west bank at all for at least 6 weeks. The question is, will they try to hold on there or will they "bug out"? Unfortunately, I expect the latter.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 10-17-2022

Good thread on Belarus from a Belarusian journalist and why threat from there is likely overblown.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1582044513274822656?s=20&t=MJ1s1cCWBQM-ip4BPjEuBg[/tweet]

LOL

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1582053211027910659?s=20&t=YvgKQW24Rtah7Z3KbDKnkw[/TWEET]

Ukrainian domestic long range drones being developed-

https://mezha.media/en/2022/10/17/ukroboronprom-and-the-come-back-alive-foundation-are-preparing-their-own-responses-to-the-iranian-shahed-136/

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 10-17-2022

The scared billionaires of the world really need to STFU about capitulating to Russia.

Everything Russia is doing now would make the Wizard of Oz blush. The phony Belarus ruse, the Iranian drones  (yes causing death and destruction but at a scale that will not impact the strategy of the war in any way to the benefit of Russia), the nuclear saber rattling, and today I saw Putin has supposedly offered Kherson in exchange for a cease fire. I wonder if Elon Musk's big and unhelpful mouth gave Putin this last idea???

Now today some pissant VC writes a column for Newsweek (once a credible news organization) saying wanting to destroy Russia is "woke" because caring for anyone but yourself is somehow weak.  Just f*cking pathetic. No wonder he's a Vulture Capitalist. Apologies to any who actually have a soul and aren't psychopaths.

Russia is going to lose Kherson, cease fire or not. Thankfully Elon Musk isn't in charge of the Ukrainian government, or he'd be patting himself on the back for taking the deal and saving all these lives, not realizing Russia just picked his pocket and stuck a "kick me" sign on his back to which he is oblivious.

Can we stop with the lionizing of these asshole billionaires who demonstrate time and time again that they really aren't as smart as they and their boot lickers think they are? I think we can see most of them are opportunists who will sacrifice the principles most of us hold sacrosanct, for their own vanity and egos, and pretty much nothing else.

BARF

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 10-17-2022

While a lot of this Iranian drones seems to be attacking civilian infrastructure, we've now seen a couple loitering munition hits on Ukrainian S-300 systems, which is pretty concerning.  Ukraine lost a lot of these at the beginning of the war, and I believe Goose mentioned they lost a whole bunch when Russia took Crimea back in 2014.  I know other countries are trying to get various systems to Ukraine, but those will take time, and I think most systems have trouble with really small drones.  Any idea how Ukraine can solve this issue?  Is it a matter of constantly rotating the air defense systems, so they aren't in the same spot for a while?  For these Irainian drones to have such a brobdingnagian range that they can attack Kyiv, and also have the precision to take out valuable air defense systems, it seems they are a big problem.  It would be nice if Ukraine could do the same, it was recently announced that a domestic manufacturer might be able to, but I won't hold my breath for now.  



[tweet][url=https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1582036244959150080?s=20&t=_LS6qCTZyqzfWX9_q0E7Hg]https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1582036244959150080?s=20&t=_LS6qCTZyqzfWX9_q0E7Hg[/tweet]

[tweet][url=https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1581244414521147394?s=20&t=_LS6qCTZyqzfWX9_q0E7Hg]https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1581244414521147394?s=20&t=_LS6qCTZyqzfWX9_q0E7Hg[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-17-2022

(10-17-2022, 10:00 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Good thread on Belarus from a Belarusian journalist and why threat from there is likely overblown.



https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1582044513274822656?s=20&t=MJ1s1cCWBQM-ip4BPjEuBg



LOL

It seems entirely reasonable the Russians would want to use the training ranges in Belarus. For quite a while the assessment by NATO has been that the Belarus army was equally likely to fight for Ukraine rather than against them if they had to choose. Their preference is to not fight at all. The political situation in Belarus is not stable. The self-declared president Lukashenko doesn't have great support and there might be a revolution if a war against Ukraine was declared.

At present, Russia probably has no plans to involve Belarus in actual fighting. That could change. Putin could at some point desire a wider war to allow him to declare full mobilization. One way to do that would be a provocation saying Ukraine attacked Belarus and Russia must honor it's treaty obligations to Belarus. Pretty desperate, but given his track record, not impossible. That really opens a can of worms that nobody knows how to control or predict.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - rudruff - 10-17-2022

(10-17-2022, 01:38 PM)Treefence Wrote:  While a lot of this Iranian drones seems to be attacking civilian infrastructure, we've now seen a couple loitering munition hits on Ukrainian S-300 systems, which is pretty concerning.  Ukraine lost a lot of these at the beginning of the war, and I believe Goose mentioned they lost a whole bunch when Russia took Crimea back in 2014.  I know other countries are trying to get various systems to Ukraine, but those will take time, and I think most systems have trouble with really small drones.  Any idea how Ukraine can solve this issue?  Is it a matter of constantly rotating the air defense systems, so they aren't in the same spot for a while?  For these Irainian drones to have such a of immense proportions range that they can attack Kyiv, and also have the precision to take out valuable air defense systems, it seems they are a big problem.  It would be nice if Ukraine could do the same, it was recently announced that a domestic manufacturer might be able to, but I won't hold my breath for now.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCEzEVwOwS4

One of my favorite YouTube channels just did an hour on air defense in Ukraine. Probably more than most people are looking for.

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TreesAndBirds - TreesAndBirds - 10-17-2022

Interesting article in Foreign Affairs by a Russian diplomat who recently resigned and moved to the West.

In short….

Putin lives in an echo chamber and this is dangerous (no surprise).

Western sanctions have had more effect than generally understood. They have really hurt the Russian military.

Ukraine should not think that a reasonable negotiated resolution with Putin is possible. 

Last, and most interesting to me, he believes the demise of Russia’s efforts to liberalize in the 90s was due in part to the failure of the West to sufficiently support Russia’s transition with economic and other aid, and as the people’s lives became worse under democracy the appeal of authoritarian government grew. He encourages the West to be thinking more about the end game here…that this is about more than Ukraine, but possibly providing Russia with an alternative approach to global interactions.  


https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/sources-russia-misconduct-boris-bondarev

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 10-17-2022

(10-17-2022, 04:16 PM)rudruff Wrote:  One of my favorite YouTube channels just did an hour on air defense in Ukraine. Probably more than most people are looking for.

Very informative & well put together.  Thanks for the pointer.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-17-2022

(10-17-2022, 06:47 PM)M T Wrote:  

(10-17-2022, 04:16 PM)rudruff Wrote:  One of my favorite YouTube channels just did an hour on air defense in Ukraine. Probably more than most people are looking for.

Very informative & well put together.  Thanks for the pointer.

Totally agree. Well worth the time and very informative. The points about the difference in emphasis between NATO and the Warsaw Pact/Russia regarding air defense are very important. The implications for Ukraine to maintain control of it's airspace by using NATO systems to replace the attrition of their S-300 systems (destruction and using up their missile supply) is critically important. Ukraine understands this, I think. NATO and USAF understands this, I hope. What is being done about it is I fear nothing much. Everybody in NATO may be just hoping the war is over before Ukraine runs out of Soviet era missiles.

Two points that are outside the scope of the video:

1)  While neither Russia nor Ukraine really had a viable SEAD/DEAD plan (as the video does indeed point out), one of the major reasons what they did have didn't work is that it was oriented toward NATO systems, not their own. This makes a very big difference.

2) It is entirely possible to mount an effective SEAD/DEAD campaign using 4th generation equipment, such as both Ukraine and Russia do indeed possess. However, during Desert Storm, where only the F-117 was available as a stealthy SEAD aircraft, the US/UK fired over 2200 HARM missiles. It is obvious that neither Ukraine nor Russia has the ability to match that or even come close. How many of those HARM missiles actually hit anything is unknown, but probably not very many. The combined effort did the job however.

The US and the invited participants practice SEAD/DEAD at virtually every Red Flag exercise. It is necessary to keep it 4th generation in the main because the invited participants do not have 5th generation aircraft. It is indeed correct that you have to practice this (as with virtually any military task)  to be good at it. You also need a significant technical elint capability, which only a few nations possess. The video refers to "special units" and training being required. It is true that special training and equipment is required for EA aircraft, such as the EF-18G. However, there are no more "wild weasels" and special purpose radar hunters. It has to be done by the "rank and file". 

 When asked about these exercises and the ability to do SEAD/DEAD without 5th gen aircraft, the USAF participants do indeed confirm they are ready to do so, but that the losses are "significant" in the exercises. Oftentimes (not always) the exercises are repeated with F-35s (with no radar reflectors) participating and that is considered a "Lockheed commercial". The stark difference in losses does change minds.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 10-17-2022

Excellent and in depth report on US contribution to Ukraine in terms of weapons, logistics, intelligence, wargaming.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/10/24/inside-the-us-effort-to-arm-ukraine

Quote:Putin is extremely paranoid about long-range conventional-missile systems. The Kremlin is convinced, for example, that U.S. ballistic-missile defense platforms in Romania and Poland are intended for firing on Russia. Even if Ukraine agreed not to use himars to carry out strikes across the border, the mere technical capability of doing so might prove provocative. “We had reason to believe the atacms would be a bridge too far,” the Defense official said.

The battlefield realities inside Ukraine were another determining factor. “The imperative was ‘What does Ukraine need?’ ” the Defense official said. “Not what they are asking for—what they need. And we do our own assessment of that.” The Biden Administration asked for a list of targets that the Ukrainian military wanted to strike with himars. “Every single grid point was reachable with gmlrs rather than atacms,” the Defense official said.

There was one exception: Ukraine expressed a more ambitious desire to launch missile strikes on Crimea, which Russia uses for replenishing its forces across the south and which is largely beyond the reach of gmlrs. During the war-game exercises held over the summer, when the possibility of atacms came up, it was clear that Ukraine wanted them to “lay waste to Crimea,” the Defense official said. “Putin sees Crimea as much a part of Russia as St. Petersburg. So, in terms of escalation management, we have to keep that in mind.”

In multiple conversations, U.S. officials were explicit that the himars could not be used to hit targets across the border. “The Americans said there is a very serious request that you do not use these weapons to fire on Russian territory,” the Ukrainian military official said. “We said right away that’s absolutely no problem. We’ll use them only against the enemy on the territory of Ukraine.” As with other weapons platforms, there is no technical mechanism to insure compliance. Officially, the U.S. has signalled that all Ukrainian territory illegally occupied by Russia since 2014—not only that which it has taken since February—is fair game for himars strikes. “We haven’t said specifically don’t strike Crimea,” the Defense official told me. “But then, we haven’t enabled them to do so, either.”

......

Reznikov is certain that such deliveries are inevitable. “When I was in D.C. in November, before the invasion, and asked for Stingers, they told me it was impossible,” he said. “Now it’s possible. When I asked for 155-millimetre guns, the answer was no. himars, no. harm, no. Now all of that is a yes.” He added, “Therefore, I’m certain that tomorrow there will be tanks and atacms and F-16s.”

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-17-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1582063835615461376?s=46&t=lFDefOFXDZveMxH5qbO6IQ[/tweet]

I think this echos much of what Goose has been saying about what Ukraine must do to be a viable state.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-18-2022

Stanford angle: Anthony Blinking visited

[tweet]https://twitter.com/secblinken/status/1582126556603854848?s=46&t=EUNTJv8w703EYq3evCQmIA[/tweet]

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 10-18-2022

It sounds like Russia might be preparing to evacuate the Kherson region (North of the Dnipro), lots of rumblings of a full Civilian evacuation, as well as this.  I wonder if they will try to evacuate the civilians along with military equipment to avoid Ukrainian attacks. 

[tweet][url=https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1582434857761718273?s=20&t=UkqksXQuOjetl9Ac74bOwA]https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1582434857761718273?s=20&t=UkqksXQuOjetl9Ac74bOwA[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 10-18-2022

Given the nuclear saber rattling, I thought I'd check on the American Defense Ready Condition rating.  Currently at #3, it has only gone to DefCon 2 during the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Gulf War. It was at DefCon 3 during the bombing of the twin towers on 9/11.

Two Russian Tu-95 bombers were intercepted over the Alaskan Air Defense Identification earlier today.  The Chinese have flown over or near Taiwan literally every single day since Nancy Pelosi visited on August 2.  And so it goes.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - 82 Card - 10-18-2022

(10-18-2022, 11:23 AM)Treefence Wrote:  It sounds like Russia might be preparing to evacuate the Kherson region (North of the Dnipro), lots of rumblings of a full Civilian evacuation, as well as this.  I wonder if they will try to evacuate the civilians along with military equipment to avoid Ukrainian attacks. 

"Full civilian evacuation" sounds a lot like internment to me, basically taking hostages.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-18-2022

(10-18-2022, 02:53 PM)82 Card Wrote:  

(10-18-2022, 11:23 AM)Treefence Wrote:  It sounds like Russia might be preparing to evacuate the Kherson region (North of the Dnipro), lots of rumblings of a full Civilian evacuation, as well as this.  I wonder if they will try to evacuate the civilians along with military equipment to avoid Ukrainian attacks. 

"Full civilian evacuation" sounds a lot like internment to me, basically taking hostages.

Exactly what it means is TBD. There are a significant number of civilians in Kherson that are "collaborators". They probably want to leave and up to now couldn't. There are also many civilians that are Ukrainian sympathizers and may want to leave, but only to go to Ukraine, not other Russian controlled territory. If this is just window dressing to allow the collaborators to run, that won't much matter. If it is a forced evacuation of everybody into Russian territory, that is another. The timing also matters, as others have pointed out. If this "evacuation" is mixed in with a Russian retreat, it is effectively using human shields. So far, Russia hasn't shown much ability to organize lots of movement of anything across the river in either direction. It remains to be seen if they can actually do so now.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 10-18-2022

Sure, TBD, but let's not pretend that Russia has earned the benefit of the doubt.  Given everything we've seen to date, I think it's reasonable to predict that any Russia retreat from the west bank of the Dnipro is likely to involve human rights violations of some sort or another.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-18-2022

(10-18-2022, 04:54 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  Sure, TBD, but let's not pretend that Russia has earned the benefit of the doubt.  Given everything we've seen to date, I think it's reasonable to predict that any Russia retreat from the west bank of the Dnipro is likely to involve human rights violations of some sort or another.

Totally agree with that. The question is just how well organized these violations will be. Shooting civilians is just SOP. Organized kidnapping may be beyond Russia's means at this point (if Ukraine is lucky).

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-18-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1582547353818783745?s=46&t=OZhNe8oFZNQdVzYCJ68bLA[/tweet]

I think the US should make clear that providing Ukraine with ATACMS will be on the table if Russia continues to indiscriminately attack civilian targets.  I mean, we should provide them anyways, since Ukraine has been responsible about how it uses weapons, but this can be a justification.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 10-18-2022

Completely agree. Use it to take out these Crimean launching sites. Only need to give a few and they're being phased out anyway.

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