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Predict the USC margin - Printable Version

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Re: Predict the the University of South Central margin - Spiny_Norman - 09-11-2012

(09-11-2012, 09:03 AM)needle link Wrote:I predict a high-scoring game with maybe Williamson kicking a game winner.

Kind of like this?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CzdqOWUwNJs

Re: Predict the the University of South Central margin - ChicagoCard - 09-11-2012

;D

Re: Predict the the University of South Central margin - OutsiderFan - 09-11-2012

I'll go with U.S.C. 31 Stanford 20

Now I'll explain why...

First of all, I believe Stanford can beat U.S.C.  The players believe they can do it too.  Stanford's defense is better than 2011, when Stanford's defense held them to 24 points, and the special teams may be better as well, so there is a case to be made that Stanford will win.

Unfortunately, the improvement in the defense does not seem to be enough to overcome the drop in the offense in this game.  Stanford was nearly 53% on 3rd down conversions in 2011.  Stanford is 28% after games against San Jose State and Duke this year.  Now, I will add U.S.C. is not much better at 38%, but Stanford does not have the game breakers to make up for a lack of 3rd down conversion efficiency.  U.S.C.'s 3rd down defense is 34% and Stanford's is 45%, so I see Stanford being able to stop U.S.C. enough to win.

Absent big play capability in the passing game, Stanford must string together long drives and convert many 3rd downs to score even FGs.  When you are averaging less than 4 YPC, you will have a lot of 3rd downs, and when you can't run in the red zone, you will end up with FGs instead of TDs. 

The only way Stanford can win is if the running game averages at least 5 YPC, and Stanford's defense forces 2+ turnovers.  That's what will be needed to make up for the fact Stanford is so poor on 3rd downs, doesn't have big play capability in the passing game, and U.S.C. has a nearly 400 yd passing game and a 250+ yd rushing game to its credit.  It's possible, but I just don't see that much improvement happening in one week.

Simply stated, Stanford's defense will have to carry far too much of the burden for Stanford to win.  I think they will do the job most of the game, but in the end, after continued failures by the offense, it will break and allow a 4th quarter TD that makes the score look not so representative of how close the game was.  Stanford will gain a lot of respect in a moral victory, remain in the Top 25, then go into Seattle and smash the Huskies.










Re: Predict the the University of South Central margin - cardfan09 - 09-11-2012

Color me a pessimist, as well.  I think U.S.C. is enormously invested in winning this game, and they've proven to be a very tough opponent when motivated.  If we win this game, it's because our defense plays out of its mind. 

puh-lease.. show us the way to wictory. - Ferris_Bueller - 09-11-2012

Having SC oh-fer in conference next week is a largely proportioned challenge. 

Your bay neighbor would be grateful to see how the feat might be pulled off.

[ Otoh, geez, maybe it's better if you don't p*ss 'em off?  So confusing.]

Anyways..
#GOOOO (trust me, this isn't as easy as it looks) YOUUS !!

Re: Predict the the University of South Central margin - fullmetal - 09-11-2012

We're going to need 3+ turnovers and 6+ ypc to overcome the playcalling deficits as well ><;; 

Re: Predict the the University of South Central margin - Leftcoast - 09-11-2012

I have us down for losing in the 10-19 range but I'll be at the game hollering for the reverse. 

That's my realistic pick - but as I tell my kids on Christmas Eve, you only have to believe in Santa Claus one day out of the year.  By game time Saturday I'll believe.

For now, I think Stanford is too young to stick with USC this year and the score could get out of control in the second half.  If so, I hope this game will be a "measuring stick" that energizes the team and gets them ready for the other tough games on their schedule.

By the way, at the last game some new folks in our shady-side section were tweaked by those of us in the front few rows standing during key plays.  We even got asked to sit down while stretching our legs during HALF-TIME.  Some folks should give up on football and just get opera tickets. 

Re: puh-lease.. show us the way to wictory. - Farm93 - 09-11-2012

(09-11-2012, 11:10 AM)Lurck42 link Wrote:Having SC oh-fer in conference next week is a largely proportioned challenge. 

Your bay neighbor would be grateful to see how the feat might be pulled off.

[ Otoh, geez, maybe it's better if you don't p*ss 'em off?  So confusing.]

Anyways..
#GOOOO (trust me, this isn't as easy as it looks) YOUUS !!

Lurck42,

From your perspective, it is probably better for Port-a-potty U that SC win this week.  They are almost certainly too good to lose twice in one week.  However win or lose against Stanford, I think even on their worst day they destroy Port-a-potty U by 20+.  The vacaters may destroy Stanford by a bunch too, but recent history suggests Stanford is at least a tougher match-up for them.

Re: Predict the the University of South Central margin - SamAtoms1980 - 09-11-2012

(09-11-2012, 12:27 PM)Leftcoast link Wrote:By the way, at the last game some new folks in our shady-side section were tweaked by those of us in the front few rows standing during key plays.  We even got asked to sit down while stretching our legs during HALF-TIME.  Some folks should give up on football and just get opera tickets.

Or it could have been that you were just really inconsiderate, callously blocking their view of those adorable frisbee-catching dogs.  :)

Re: Predict the the University of South Central margin - Leftcoast - 09-11-2012

Well .... the Band WAS on the field. 

Maybe they were just hardcore enthusiasts of precision marching and fine music.

Re: Predict the the University of South Central margin - Leftcoast - 09-11-2012

Believe me, Garvin, I was standing at THAT game too - and to hell with any opera enthusiasts behind me then!

To go full circle, my fellow standing miscreant from last week WAS in the band at THAT game.    He claims he could have made a tackle if he'd only been out of the endzone when Moen ran by - but we've all seen the video.  It's tough to make a tackle when you're running away.

Re: Predict the the University of South Central margin - Hank 91 - 09-11-2012

I'm sorry for opening a wound that looks to have been healed (looking at you, Garvin and Outsider), but Plaschke is an absolute ass. He's one of those columnists who seems to have a job simply because he's had it for a long time. Every once in a while he'll come across a nice human interest story, but his sports opinion pieces are a disaster -- and that's not a good thing if you're a sports columnist. I'm glad Garvin mentioned the Rose Bowl piece. It was the absolute sorriest excuse for journalism that I've ever read. I've never been so angered by anything I've ever read in a sports section. He actually mocked Stanford players for saying they'd done a good job on Ron Dayne. Yes, he had 200 yards, but he had been bottled up for much of the game before uncorking for a 60-70 yard gain late in the game. Also, he had 30-40 carries if I remember right.

Again, I'm sorry for bringing it all up again, but I cannot be rational with Plaschke's name is mentioned.

Re: Predict the the University of South Central margin - washingtonismoney - 09-12-2012

The definitive takes on Bill Plaschke have always been featured on the (sadly departed) Fire Joe Morgan blog.

http://www.firejoemorgan.com/search?q=plaschke

Even a broken clock is right twice per day - Redrum - 09-12-2012

IIRC,  didn't Plaschke latch onto the cheatin' Trojans during the sanctions controversy?  And not let go?  Maybe he is, in felicitous Soviet phrasing,  a useful idiot.

Re: Even a broken clock is right twice per day - ChicagoCard - 09-12-2012

(09-12-2012, 07:23 AM)Redrum link Wrote:IIRC,  didn't Plaschke latch onto the cheatin' Literature's Most Famous Losers during the sanctions controversy?  And not let go?  Maybe he is, in felicitous Soviet phrasing,  a useful idiot.

http://tinyurl.com/8hrc4ky

Re: Predict the the University of South Central margin - yvonne - 09-12-2012

How can you dislike a column like that one?

Re: Predict the the University of South Central margin - larkinforever - 09-12-2012

Hi all - is Hewitt playing this weekend? Anyone seen an injury update for the team?

Re: Predict the the University of South Central margin - fullmetal - 09-12-2012

As far as I've heard, Hewitt is good to go.  I don't think I've heard much, if anything, about anyone else.  Hewitt is listed as a co-starter with Lee Ward at fullback.  Andrus Peat is listed as a co-starter at left tackle with David Yankey.

From gostanford.com:
Quote:Peat’s recovery from a preseason hand injury has allowed him to do more on the field and could have the cast removed next week.


Re: Predict the the University of South Central margin - GoodGrief - 09-12-2012

You are all going to feel foolish when we win on Saturday and I am the only one (so far at least) who predicted the margin of victory correctly.

Re: Predict the the University of South Central margin - fullmetal - 09-12-2012

When I grow up, I want to be like GoodGrief.