Keller Chryst - Printable Version

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Re: Answer to the statement: - george - 05-10-2014

(05-10-2014, 07:52 AM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:here's the set of "when it's a good idea to play a true freshman QB" = {}

(05-10-2014, 10:52 AM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:[quote author=stupac2 link=topic=9957.msg89245#msg89245 date=1399743287]
Wasn't Winston a RS Freshman?

Correct. As was Manziel, Mariota, Luck, etc.

[/quote]

Is not the general consensus that it would've been better to play Luck his true freshman year?  I love Tavita, but given that Luck ended up leaving eligibility on the table, I'm thinking that set might at least be a singleton...

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Re: Keller Chryst - terry - 05-10-2014

I think Hogan is pretty good at hitting receivers in stride on the deep ball. He threw the deep ball as well as just about anyone last year.

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Re: Keller Chryst - Stymie - 05-11-2014

(05-10-2014, 12:34 PM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:[quote author=Stymie link=topic=9957.msg89269#msg89269 date=1399749568]
I rely on tape (much of which of Hogan's long game I have seen), but as one who aced statistics at both Stanford and Harvard Business School I solidly believe the old chestnut of "lies, damned lies and statistics." :)

Better statistics than faulty memory. I mean, here's every single ESPN highlight of a Hogan longball from 2013:
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9649332
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9649995
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9740904
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9741147
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9741283
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9815483
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9850031
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9887303
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9943420
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:10098537
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:10098652
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:10099977

To me I see maybe one longball that even comes close to the description of your memory -- Hogan scrambling around and heaving up a ball to a receiver who comes back and does all the work. (If you'd bothered to consult the statistics rather than memory -- which has a way of forgetting things! -- you'd know Hogan ran and scrambled much less this year than last.) Of course, some of these are perfect strikes, some of them just good balls; and a couple the receiver is doing good work. Fine, whatever; basically every quarterback has receivers helping him out in this day and age. That's where we turn to statistics, where the knowledge that Hogan completed the third-highest percentage on deep passes combines with our view of the tape to say, "Well, he's a pretty good quarterback at throwing deep." Basically every QB sometimes misses guys a bit. It seems like a stretch to say that Hogan is somehow completing the most passes of everyone...but those completions are worse than others.

But I understand you have a different evaluative measure of "using your memory to summon nonexistent plays, and comparing that to your perhaps equally faulty memory of other players."
[/quote]

Thanks for that.  Half of the 12 clips are OK, but it's not a great sample size and by your definition it is the complete ESPN Hogan long throw highlight reel.  Surely not up to Johnny Football standards....  I hope that you and Terry et. al are right and I am wrong, but we will see.

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Re: Keller Chryst - CTcard - 05-11-2014

(05-11-2014, 07:19 AM)Stymie link Wrote:Thanks for that.  Half of the 12 clips are OK, but it's not a great sample size and by your definition it is the complete ESPN Hogan long throw highlight reel.  Surely not up to Johnny Football standards....  I hope that you and Terry et. al are right and I am wrong, but we will see.

I know I shouldn't prolong this, but somehow I cannot help noting that there is no way that "we will [future tense] see" how well Hogan threw the long ball in 2013.

I also don't think I can add better evidence than that presented above, but just a comment on the small sample size. Apparently ESPN has 12 highlight videos of Hogan completing passes of 30+ yards. WIM showed at least one other in his earlier post that was not an ESPN highlight (vs UW). To check how big the numbers actually are IS a question of statistics. Hogan threw 28 completions of 30+ yards in 2013. That was tied for 5th in the country. [He was also tied for 5th for number of 40+ yard passes. Behind Manziel in # of 30+ yds passes, ahead in # of 40+ yd passes.]

It is my opinion that these numbers should be considered along with percentage of throws at these distances - though neither alone. Obviously, if you throw more passes, your total number of long completions will go up. However, if you don't throw many passes, you probably are running an offense looking for a big strike when throwing. So, the percentage of attempts or completions over 30+ yards is not readily available as far as I can tell. I can calculate it on my own for a few.

I cannot find anybody with a higher than Hogan for percentage of attempts ending up as completions of 30+ yards, though I could have missed somebody.

Hogan completed 28 30+ yards passes, 9.5% of his attempts
The others in the top 10 for most 30+ yard completions were:
Petty (Baylor) 38 long completions, 9.4% of attempts
Manziel (Texas AM) 33 long completions, 7.7% of attempts
Morris (Miami) 32 long completions, 9.3% of attempts
Fales (SJS) 31 long completions, 6.4% of attempts
Boyd (Clemson) 28 long completions, 6.7% of attempts
Bortles (UCF) 26 long completions, 6.8% of atttempts
Carr (Fresno) 26 long completions, 3.9% of atttempts
Mannion (OSU) 26 long completions, 4.3% of atttempts
Wenning (Ball St) 26 long completions, 5.2% of atttempts

[These numbers all come from http://www.cfbstats.com/2013/leader/national/player/split01/category32/sort03.html and http://www.cfbstats.com/2013/leader/national/player/split01/category02/sort06.html]

I don't think there is any meaningful way to combine this stuff to make an overall ranked list. It does seem fair to say that the Stanford offense, with Hogan as its quarterback, was among the best teams in the NCAA FBS in 2013 at hitting long passes.

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