Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-29-2025

(04-29-2025, 09:51 AM)M T Wrote:  It strikes me that 3 days truce could be used to move troops through a vulnerable area to a new front.

True, but that applies to both sides. In theory Ukraine could "easily" swap out some of the troops fighting in the Donbas. They could also be re-supplied with impunity. However, given how poorly the previous "truce" proclaimed by Putin was observed IMO this 3 day one will be no different. If either side sees juicy targets of opportunity they will be attacked.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-29-2025

Very interesting thread. It seems the US recently sent 3 F16 airframes from the Davis-Monthan AFB "boneyard" to Poland on a Ukrainian transport jet, and presumably on to Ukraine.

Unknown if these are flying airframes or intended for parts. But until now there has been no public disclosure of direct supply from the US to Ukraine of F16s, which we know have been provided by Denmark and the Netherlands.

https://x.com/KSOSINT/status/1917351606120579194

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-29-2025

(04-29-2025, 04:35 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Very interesting thread. It seems the US recently sent 3 F16 airframes from the Davis-Monthan AFB "boneyard" to Poland on a Ukrainian transport jet, and presumably on to Ukraine.

Unknown if these are flying airframes or intended for parts. But until now there has been no public disclosure of direct supply from the US to Ukraine of F16s, which we know have been provided by Denmark and the Netherlands.

https://x.com/KSOSINT/status/1917351606120579194

I am not sure I believe this yet. Let's see what finally gets reported. Obviously someone will ask about this "formally".

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 04-29-2025

I'm not on X so I can't read the thread.

The aircraft ID is behind an engine and not visible. Antonov has 6 or 7 AN-124's.  
FlightAware says that the flight info for these aircraft is not available by request of the owner/operator.
FlightRadar24 doesn't show any flight data in the last 7 days (I can't tell if any data is suppressed).

However, here is a photo of such a plane landing at DFW on March 29.  That flight could be consistent with someone posting a picture 4 weeks later.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-29-2025

Sorry, unfortunately X is still one of the first places to read about some of the things happening in the conflict. It's a shame that apparently they now require an account to read posts.

The thread has photos and one video of wrapped F16 airframes with engines and wings removed, being loaded onto a Ukrainian flagged Antonov An-124. Also a flight tracker image from that thread.

Quote: On April 26th, UR-82027 departed Tuscon for Rzeszów–Jasionka Airport in Poland. Located near the Polish-Ukrainian border Rzeszów–Jasionka serves as a key logistic hub for US and allied military support for Ukraine.

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1917368832965894632

Quote:Appears that these may be older F-16ADFs mothballed from Air National Guard service in the early 2000s [note what appears to be a bird slicer IFF antenna under the wrap].

They are likely being used for spares and as decoys/ ground trainers.

One similar "bird slicer" IFF equipped F16 was photographed on the ground at a ceremony in Ukraine over the summer when the planes were first introduced. It was surmised at the time by one commenter on X to be a non airworthy ex-USAF airframe.

https://x.com/MarcinRogowsk14/status/1820179345387786371

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Papa John - 04-30-2025

Looks like the US and Ukraine reached an agreement on the on-off-on-again minerals deal. I'm not sure how or even if it changes the equation in the war, but considering the alternative it sounds like good news, right?

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-putin-trump-peace-ce025ba11929ceff0c90f94c25a47624

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-30-2025

(04-30-2025, 04:49 PM)Papa John Wrote:  Looks like the US and Ukraine reached an agreement on the on-off-on-again minerals deal. I'm not sure how or even if it changes the equation in the war, but considering the alternative it sounds like good news, right?

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-putin-trump-peace-ce025ba11929ceff0c90f94c25a47624

IMO it isn't bad news for either the US or Ukraine. The whole thing is so nebulous that it is unclear what it means. The one important understanding it apparently embraces is the idea that previous US aid to Ukraine was a grant and no repayment was expected. If that understanding holds, that would be "good". The idea that the mineral rights are compensation for future reconstruction aid to Ukraine may seem a bit petty, but since the details have not yet been fleshed out even that isn't certain.

Of course, despite attempts to characterize this agreement as committing the US to protecting Ukraine going forward, it in no way does that. The US isn't going to fight a war in Ukraine to preserve a few mining claims or even significant mining businesses. It wouldn't make "business sense" given the risks attendant with a war against Russia.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-01-2025

Quote:According to an Air Force spokesperson, the Department of the Air Force “has supported the sustainment of European-donated F-16s to Ukraine by providing disused and completely non-operational F-16s to Ukraine for parts. These F-16s were retired from active U.S. use and are not flyable. Importantly, they lack critical components such as an engine or radar and could not be reconstituted for operational use.”

https://www.twz.com/air/f-16s-pulled-from-u-s-boneyard-are-being-delivered-to-ukraine-for-spare-parts

This, and the recent approval of 50 million arm sales deal to Ukraine, the first I believe of the administration, seems somewhat auspicious. Not sure it's a coincidence this all happened around the time the nebulous mineral deal was signed.

Positive I think in any case.

The ousting of Waltz as NSA after he reportedly has been pushing for sanctions against Russia in light of their intransigence for a deal and continued civilian bombings during "ceasefires", less positive.

Another connection- the photos of the F16s came to public light from the conservative influencer Laura Loomer, who was upset about them, and who has also been pushing for ouster of Waltz.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-01-2025

(05-01-2025, 10:06 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  This, and the recent approval of 50 million arm sales deal to Ukraine, the first I believe of the administration, seems somewhat auspicious. Not sure it's a coincidence this all happened around the time the nebulous mineral deal was signed.

Positive I think in any case.

Agree it is positive. I also assume the "sale" was on credit(?). Would be nice if the action was clearly not part of a quid pro quo, but as you say we can't tell ATM. If further sales/grants follow, that will clearly indicate a policy. How long that policy holds is another question.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-01-2025

Yeah, information on that arms sale is limited.

Quote:On Wednesday, the Trump administration informed Congress of its intention to green-light the export of defense-related products to Ukraine through direct commercial sales (DCS) of $50 million or more, Kyiv Post has learned from diplomatic sources.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/51800

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-01-2025

(05-01-2025, 10:49 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Yeah, information on that arms sale is limited.

Quote:On Wednesday, the Trump administration informed Congress of its intention to green-light the export of defense-related products to Ukraine through direct commercial sales (DCS) of $50 million or more, Kyiv Post has learned from diplomatic sources.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/51800

Well, a least they didn't make it FMS, which imposes a very heavy "tax" on the actual price of the equipment. We often reserve that "privilege" to "valued" allies :-).

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-01-2025

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/01/trump-iran-oil-sanctions.html

This relates to Ukraine in that it makes clear that the current US administration will use "secondary" sanctions against other nations to achieve its aims. These types of sanctions do carry considerable diplomatic risk, but in the case of Iran it was deemed worthwhile. Does that mean a similar sanction could be forthcoming in the near future against Russia? If so, I hope the US laid the groundwork by ensuring at least the "larger" targets of the sanctions have a path to alternate supplies at reasonable prices. With the increase of both OPEC and US production, that should be possible. China may not change its behavior  and keep buying from Russia anyway. India would be the nation the US should "work with" to hit Russian oil exports.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Papa John - 05-01-2025

(05-01-2025, 10:06 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  The ousting of Waltz as NSA after he reportedly has been pushing for sanctions against Russia in light of their intransigence for a deal and continued civilian bombings during "ceasefires", less positive.

I think the cause-and-effect of the now-former NSA is not so clear. He was responsible for adding a journalist to a highly sensitive Signal chat, after all. In any case, the new acting NSA is not blatantly pro-Russia, so I think that with respect to US support for Ukraine the NSA change at this point is neutral as opposed to less positive.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - rogpodge - 05-02-2025

https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1918190255271715122

Thread about the sinking of the Moscova based on research from a grieving father.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-03-2025

Very interesting thread, thanks for posting.

Ukraine seems to have achieved another first in warfare, downing an Su-30 from a SAM launched by a naval drone. They previously managed to take down a helicopter a few months ago in same manner. Taking down a jet like this should be more difficult. The Su-30's countermeasures should be able to handle an old R-73. Perhaps unlucky, unprepared, or it's not a standard R-73 missile.

Maybe Bluesky allows reading without an account? If not, the video shows a midair explosion and burning debris falling into the ocean, filmed from a craft low in the water. 

https://bsky.app/profile/christopherjm.ft.com/post/3lob4fjmntk2s

Quote:Ukraine's military intelligence agency, GUR, claims to have shot down a Russian Su-30 with a Soviet-era R-73 air-to-air missile fired from one of its Magura naval drones, in what appears to be a first-of-its-kind attack. The downing occurred overnight on May 2/3, near Russian port of Novorossiysk

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 05-03-2025

(05-01-2025, 11:51 AM)Goose Wrote:  https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/01/trump-iran-oil-sanctions.html

This relates to Ukraine in that it makes clear that the current US administration will use "secondary" sanctions against other nations to achieve its aims. These types of sanctions do carry considerable diplomatic risk, but in the case of Iran it was deemed worthwhile. Does that mean a similar sanction could be forthcoming in the near future against Russia? If so, I hope the US laid the groundwork by ensuring at least the "larger" targets of the sanctions have a path to alternate supplies at reasonable prices. With the increase of both OPEC and US production, that should be possible. China may not change its behavior  and keep buying from Russia anyway. India would be the nation the US should "work with" to hit Russian oil exports.

I would think that anything that would reduce Russian revenues from natural gas and petroleum could have the biggest negative impact on their economy which probably is fairly stressed at this point.  Seems  likely we might work to do this best through India. but I wonder how much US Influence Indians can tolerate?  Last I read I think China bought 45% of its petroleum from Russia and India 38 percent.  Turkey and Europe were at 6 percent.  Loss of half its sales to India would be about a 22 Billion dollar hit to the Russia's economy. That would hurt I would think.
Probably a pipe dream, but I think anything we can do that hits the Russian Economy hard is a big plus for Ukraine.

Another add, reports from Russia reflect that they are having to crack down on draft evaders and are resorting to "illegal" actions under Russian law to fulfill the latest draft call of 160,000 men which happens to be the approximate losses they have suffered the first 4 months of this year. No matter who you are I don't see how you can continue to suffer losses at a rate that would amount to almost 700,000 by the end of the year.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-03-2025

(05-03-2025, 08:17 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Very interesting thread, thanks for posting.

Ukraine seems to have achieved another first in warfare, downing an Su-30 from a SAM launched by a naval drone. They previously managed to take down a helicopter a few months ago in same manner. Taking down a jet like this should be more difficult. The Su-30's countermeasures should be able to handle an old R-73. Perhaps unlucky, unprepared, or it's not a standard R-73 missile.

Unprepared is very probable. The R-73 is an IR missile. It is relatively short range, especially at lower altitudes where the intercept occurred. The intercept occurred 50 km west of Novorossiysk. That is undoubtedly considered a "safe" area by the VVS. It is entirely probable the Missile Approach Warning Sensor (MAWS) was not enabled. It is also possible it was not working. Since there has been almost no air combat in the Ukraine war for a long time, maybe the airplane wasn't down-checked for an inoperable MAWS. It is also almost certain that the pilot did not see the missile launch or the missile approaching because he wasn't looking for it. Normally such a missile could only be launched from another airplane. As far as the pilot knew, there were no other airplanes so he was "safe". It is also certain that the Su-30's MAWS and IR countermeasures are optimized for NATO missiles, not Soviet/Russian ones.

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RE: Way OT: - MV72018 - 05-03-2025

(03-08-2022, 07:34 PM)Phogge Wrote:  The Rotary club of West Marin is in contact with other clubs in Ukraine. Trying to figure out the complex fund transfer.
In the meantime the club has planted a series of Ukraine flags in our community garden.

Bravo, Phogge!!!!

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 05-03-2025

(05-03-2025, 06:12 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(05-03-2025, 08:17 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Very interesting thread, thanks for posting.

Ukraine seems to have achieved another first in warfare, downing an Su-30 from a SAM launched by a naval drone. They previously managed to take down a helicopter a few months ago in same manner. Taking down a jet like this should be more difficult. The Su-30's countermeasures should be able to handle an old R-73. Perhaps unlucky, unprepared, or it's not a standard R-73 missile.

Unprepared is very probable. The R-73 is an IR missile. It is relatively short range, especially at lower altitudes where the intercept occurred. The intercept occurred 50 km west of Novorossiysk. That is undoubtedly considered a "safe" area by the VVS. It is entirely probable the Missile Approach Warning Sensor (MAWS) was not enabled. It is also possible it was not working. Since there has been almost no air combat in the Ukraine war for a long time, maybe the airplane wasn't down-checked for an inoperable MAWS. It is also almost certain that the pilot did not see the missile launch or the missile approaching because he wasn't looking for it. Normally such a missile could only be launched from another airplane. As far as the pilot knew, there were no other airplanes so he was "safe". It is also certain that the Su-30's MAWS and IR countermeasures are optimized for NATO missiles, not Soviet/Russian ones.

Now Ukraine is claiming it was a Sidewinder missile. 

https://www.twz.com/news-features/two-russian-su-30-flankers-downed-by-aim-9s-fired-from-drone-boats-ukrainian-intel-boss

Quote:Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR) shot down two Su-30 Flanker multirole fighters with AIM-9 Sidewinder infrared-guided air-to-air missiles fired by Magura-7 drone boats, the head of the agency told The War Zone exclusively. This marks the first time fighter airecraft have been downed by drone boats and the first use of the AIM-9 from a drone boat for a kill.

“It’s a historical moment,” Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov told us. The War Zone cannot independently verify this claim.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Maple Leaf - 05-13-2025

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/european-economist-says-russias-economy-145833777.html

Article in Russia economy and the war in Ukraine

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