STAN vs ND GAME THREAD - Printable Version
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RE: STAN vs ND GAME THREAD - gailtate - 10-16-2022
(10-16-2022, 08:53 AM)TonyLima Wrote: Me this morning: “Stanford football beat Notre Dame!”
My lovely wife: ”Wow, Notre Dame must be really bad this year!”
She does not follow sports at all.
Sounds informed to me.
RE: STAN vs ND GAME THREAD - BostonCard - 10-16-2022
Sounds a lot like my wife, who is firmly in the “Shaw must go” camp despite the fact that she can probably count the number of football games that she’s been to (read “that I’ve dragged her to”) in one hand.
BC
RE: STAN vs ND GAME THREAD - Row80Critic - 10-16-2022
Any time Stanford beats Notre Dame it is magical and awesome, and last night was no exception. The result said as much about the state of ND football as it did Stanford, but I give the team credit for fighting hard. I remember the 2005-2006 Walt Harris games like they were yesterday and the thing that stands out most in my mind was how seemingly disinterested and lackluster the players seemed to be. It took two well-timed fumbles for ND to pull out the loss, sure, but I give credit to the team and coaches for showing this team still has a little fight in them. :) Go Stanford. And get this, Stanford is now favored to beat AZ st per ESPN and Sagarin....
RE: STAN vs ND GAME THREAD - needle - 10-16-2022
FWIW, someone (respected analytics guy Bill Connelly) crunched some numbers and thinks that based on the game stats, ND “should” have won:
[tweet] https://www.twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/1581667876377096192[/tweet]
RE: STAN vs ND GAME THREAD - Goose - 10-16-2022
(10-16-2022, 10:56 AM)needle Wrote: FWIW, someone (respected analytics guy Bill Connelly) crunched some numbers and thinks that based on the game stats, ND “should” have won:I am shocked, shocked I tell you, that there exist mathematical models that do not reliably predict the outcome of sporting events :-).
[tweet]https://mobile.twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/1581667876377096192[/tweet]
RE: STAN vs ND GAME THREAD - msqueri - 10-16-2022
I think Notre Dame definitely should have won and we got incredibly lucky to win but that's not what matters. We won and they lost.
Regarding the discussion of the rest of the season and possible win, this weekend bumped multiple games on to the Stanford slight favorite side of the ledger, at least for now. For what it's worth, on paper, Sagarin scopes out our schedule like this:
Colgate - WIN
USC - LOSS
at Washington - LOSS
at Oregon - LOSS
Oregon State - LOSS
at Notre Dame - WIN
Arizona State - 58 percent
at UCLA - 25 percent
Washington State - 50 percent
at Utah - 13 percent
at Cal - 54 percent
BYU - 57 percent
Expected win total: 4.57
That's a big one week bump up in expected wins, but still puts us squarely in 3-5 wins as the most likely result IMHO. What kills us is that Oregon State game. Hard to get to 6+ without it.
I will not/cannot abide anybody talking about a losing season as acceptable, especially not with the seniority and advantages of the 2022 roster. As I indicated in my Sunday morning thoughts post, I don't rule out a big building of momentum getting us to a 6-8 win season, though I think it's unlikely. But if we rally for 5 wins, people better not defend that. It's mediocre and we are pathetic losers if we start making arguments that we should have beat Oregon State and been bowl-eligible. Yeah, well Notre Dame should have beat us. Who cares?
This weekend always has been/should be bowl or bust.
RE: STAN vs ND GAME THREAD - ADPinWDC - 10-16-2022
Suddenly our Defense is decent.
Getting to 2-4 puts 6-6 back on the table... with wins over AZST, WAST, @CALSucks, and maybe BYU.
-- says Sagarin.
RE: STAN vs ND GAME THREAD - TonyLima - 10-16-2022
(10-16-2022, 10:28 AM)BostonCard Wrote: Sounds a lot like my wife, who is firmly in the “Shaw must go” camp despite the fact that she can probably count the number of football games that she’s been to (read “that I’ve dragged her to”) in one hand.
BC
Gotcha beat. My wife remains at zero. Has gone to a few baseball and wvb games.
(10-16-2022, 10:16 AM)gailtate Wrote:(10-16-2022, 08:53 AM)TonyLima Wrote: Me this morning: “Stanford football beat Notre Dame!”
My lovely wife: ”Wow, Notre Dame must be really bad this year!”
She does not follow sports at all.
Sounds informed to me.
Informed, no. But still accurate.
RE: STAN vs ND GAME THREAD - Phogge - 10-16-2022
Sorry to see JR and Crimson go, even for a few days. JR has gone off at me but I take it with a smile. Bring them back soon. Please.
RE: STAN vs ND GAME THREAD - admin - 10-16-2022
They'lll be back soon. Name-calling is not OK. Certain other things are not OK, even as acronyms.
RE: STAN vs ND GAME THREAD - BostonCard - 10-16-2022
(10-16-2022, 10:56 AM)needle Wrote: FWIW, someone (respected analytics guy Bill Connelly) crunched some numbers and thinks that based on the game stats, ND “should” have won:
[tweet] https://wwe.twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/1581667876377096192[/tweet]
We outgained Notre Dame (by a fair bit) and had two fewer turnovers than they did. Usually that is a recipe for beating the opponent. I guess if you start looking at more granular stuff, like yards per play, maybe they look a bit better, but at the end of the day, Notre Dame had exactly two drives of any significance in the game.
BC
RE: STAN vs ND GAME THREAD - Mick - 10-16-2022
WHERE has this defense been all year?
RE: STAN vs ND GAME THREAD - gailtate - 10-16-2022
(10-16-2022, 02:49 PM)Mick Wrote: WHERE has this defense been all year?
Will Troy ask Shaw?
RE: STAN vs ND GAME THREAD - msqueri - 10-16-2022
(10-16-2022, 02:34 PM)BostonCard Wrote:(10-16-2022, 10:56 AM)needle Wrote: FWIW, someone (respected analytics guy Bill Connelly) crunched some numbers and thinks that based on the game stats, ND “should” have won:
[tweet] https://wwe.twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/1581667876377096192[/tweet]
We outgained Notre Dame (by a fair bit) and had two fewer turnovers than they did. Usually that is a recipe for beating the opponent. I guess if you start looking at more granular stuff, like yards per play, maybe they look a bit better, but at the end of the day, Notre Dame had exactly two drives of any significance in the game.
BC
But the turnovers were a product of the ball bouncing our way. Stanford had two fumbles and a punt blocked while Notre Dame had three fumbles. Neither team threw an interception. That profile would be expected to even out (or perhaps be a bit of an ND advantage because of the momentum swing a scoop and score can be) but instead were a massive advantage for Stanford. That’s luck. It’s not just yards per play that suggests Notre Dame “should” have won.
RE: STAN vs ND GAME THREAD - GK3 - 10-16-2022
(10-16-2022, 03:09 PM)msqueri Wrote:(10-16-2022, 02:34 PM)BostonCard Wrote:(10-16-2022, 10:56 AM)needle Wrote: FWIW, someone (respected analytics guy Bill Connelly) crunched some numbers and thinks that based on the game stats, ND “should” have won:
[tweet] https://wwe.twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/1581667876377096192[/tweet]
We outgained Notre Dame (by a fair bit) and had two fewer turnovers than they did. Usually that is a recipe for beating the opponent. I guess if you start looking at more granular stuff, like yards per play, maybe they look a bit better, but at the end of the day, Notre Dame had exactly two drives of any significance in the game.
BC
But the turnovers were a product of the ball bouncing our way. Stanford had two fumbles and a punt blocked while Notre Dame had three fumbles. Neither team threw an interception. That profile would be expected to even out (or perhaps be a bit of an ND advantage because of the momentum swing a scoop and score can be) but instead were a massive advantage for Stanford. That’s luck. It’s not just yards per play that suggests Notre Dame “should” have won.
So its not luck when all the turnovers go against us? Luck is always part of it, either way, so is how hard you play, and we played harder and to some extent "earned" those turnovers.
RE: STAN vs ND GAME THREAD - qwerty49 - 10-16-2022
(10-16-2022, 02:04 PM)admin Wrote: They'lll be back soon. Name-calling is not OK. Certain other things are not OK, even as acronyms.
In his defense, and looking back at the exchange, I don't think JohnR indulged in either of the two offenses you cited.
RE: STAN vs ND GAME THREAD - BostonCard - 10-16-2022
(10-16-2022, 03:09 PM)msqueri Wrote: But the turnovers were a product of the ball bouncing our way. Stanford had two fumbles and a punt blocked while Notre Dame had three fumbles. Neither team threw an interception. That profile would be expected to even out (or perhaps be a bit of an ND advantage because of the momentum swing a scoop and score can be) but instead were a massive advantage for Stanford. That’s luck. It’s not just yards per play that suggests Notre Dame “should” have won.
We still outgained Notre Dame 385 to 302. We had more first downs (21-16). We had a better third down efficiency (7/16 versus 3/12). They had three three and outs to only one for Stanford. Of Notre Dame’s 11 drives, five failed to make it into Stanford territory (and one made it to the Stanford 47 before a sack pushed them back to their own side of the field); Stanford had four such drives. Stanford’s average drive was 35 yards (excluding the final kneel downs), 8 yards longer than the average Notre Dame drive. The median Notre Dame drive was just 17 yards; the median Stanford drive was 31 yards.
I’m not saying that Stanford dominated Notre Dame. This was a fairly close game, and if Notre Dame had won, I wouldn’t have said they were unworthy. But I think it is a mistake to say that Notre Dame “should have” won. To me, both the eyeball test and the numbers suggest that the score was roughly reflective of the underlying game. It was a tight game; Stanford was a shade better. And note I feel the same way about OSU last week (hard to feel like Stanford “should have” won that, but for the fact that we were leading with less than a minute left).
BC
RE: STAN vs ND GAME THREAD - needle - 10-16-2022
Um, this is how Connelly describes his post-gam win expectancy:
Quote:What is postgame win expectancy? It is my look at the key, predictive stats produced by a given game -- a lot of which ends up in the machine that produces my SP+ rankings. In essence, it takes these key stats, tosses them into the air and declares, "With these stats, you could have expected to win this game X% of the time."[/quote]
Paywalled link: https://www.espn.com/chalk/insider/insider/story/_/id/32867917/college-football-luckiest-unluckiest-teams-2021-fate-not-nebraska-side
Stanford's post-game win expectancy was 23% against ND and 26% against Oregon State.
Again, FWIW.
Link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1llrN8luL0XWuP8Y-Pb1NXKU84JhXLeUPafy1RfITEDw/edit#gid=967943920
RE: STAN vs ND GAME THREAD - GK3 - 10-16-2022
(10-16-2022, 11:44 AM)msqueri Wrote: I think Notre Dame definitely should have won and we got incredibly lucky to win but that's not what matters. We won and they lost.
Regarding the discussion of the rest of the season and possible win, this weekend bumped multiple games on to the Stanford slight favorite side of the ledger, at least for now. For what it's worth, on paper, Sagarin scopes out our schedule like this:
Colgate - WIN
USC - LOSS
at Washington - LOSS
at Oregon - LOSS
Oregon State - LOSS
at Notre Dame - WIN
Arizona State - 58 percent
at UCLA - 25 percent
Washington State - 50 percent
at Utah - 13 percent
at Cal - 54 percent
BYU - 57 percent
Expected win total: 4.57
That's a big one week bump up in expected wins, but still puts us squarely in 3-5 wins as the most likely result IMHO. What kills us is that Oregon State game. Hard to get to 6+ without it.
I will not/cannot abide anybody talking about a losing season as acceptable, especially not with the seniority and advantages of the 2022 roster. As I indicated in my Sunday morning thoughts post, I don't rule out a big building of momentum getting us to a 6-8 win season, though I think it's unlikely. But if we rally for 5 wins, people better not defend that. It's mediocre and we are pathetic losers if we start making arguments that we should have beat Oregon State and been bowl-eligible. Yeah, well Notre Dame should have beat us. Who cares?
This weekend always has been/should be bowl or bust.
Probably your best post ever. We have a lot of talent, but also have a lot of weaknesses and have already had a lot of injuries. Big thing was the team NEVER gave up. The defense was given a brilliant game plan and executed it with passion and ferocity. Luck is a hard thing to deal with in an athletic contest, sometimes you make your own luck, sometimes the referees make your luck. We made a lot of our own luck, but also lost due to referees and the rules of the game.
As I see it now, if we can continue to play defense with that kind of enthusiasm and run an offense that doesn't demand our offensive line hold blocks for any length of time or pass block effectively, we have a chance. McKee has a great arm, but is not that evasive a QB. With out current offensive line we have to stick with short quick passes as generality. If we make him throw under pressure constantly, the interception is going to kill us.
RE: STAN vs ND GAME THREAD - MV72018 - 10-16-2022
(10-16-2022, 03:04 PM)gailtate Wrote:(10-16-2022, 02:49 PM)Mick Wrote: WHERE has this defense been all year?
Will Troy ask Shaw?
Of course not! He needs access, hence no serious probing.