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Women's Tennis: New Rankings, Pepperdine, and Oregon - ColoradoTree - 03-02-2022

Stanford kicks off Pac-12 play with a home match vs. Oregon at 1:30pm on Friday, 3/5, but much more important is this Sunday's trip to Malibu to play Pepperdine. 

Pepperdine is 6-3, but all three losses are close ones to good teams. The Waves lost 4-3 to Cal on Jan. 22, but avenged that loss with a 4-1 win at Indoor Nationals. They've also beaten UCLA 5-2, Old Dominion 4-1, and Michigan 4-3, against losses to Oklahoma and Ohio State. 

After Pepperdine comes a six-match homestand (vs. CU, Utah, UCSB, USC, UCLA, and Hawaii) and then we finish the regular season with five on the road (@ UA, ASU, UW, WSU, Cal) before heading to Ojai for Pac-12s. 

This team is very capable, and now it has a signature win, over Texas. But the problem is, we need several signature wins, so that'll mean a very successful run in Pac-12 play. And this Sunday in Malibu is a great chance for another.

New Rankings

The algorithm-based ITA rankings dropped this morning, and Stanford moves up from 64th to 25th. As a reminder, it counts a certain number of wins and subtracts points for losses, with a minimal hit for losing to a good team and a bigger hit for losing to a worse team. Stanford is unquestionably better than #25, but they don't have much of a resume yet. If we thought we'd be higher now, then we were betting on making it to Indoor Nationals. Texas marks their first win that should count by the end of the season, and while the UVA loss isn't damaging in terms of rankings points lost, it closed the door to great opportunities to rack up quality wins at National Indoors. Pepperdine is a great chance to add another to the list this Sunday, and we'd get the 10% points bonus for road wins, too. Here's how it looks for us and the teams on our schedule:

5. Texas (W)
6. Pepperdine
10. Cal
12. UVA (L)
16. UCLA
17. Arizona State
21. USC
25. Stanford
27. Utah
29. UCSB
33. Washington
44. Arizona
49. Oregon
58. Arkansas (W)

So, the Pac-12 being solid this year helps us, but only if we win nearly all of those matches. If we need ten solid wins to have a high ranking and seed come NCAAs, here's what that looks like: (1) Texas, (2) Pepperdine (away), (3) Cal (away), (4) UCLA, (5) ASU (away), (6) USC, (7) Utah, (8) UCSB, (9) UW (away), and (10) Arizona (away). And that's IF we win out, so the schedule really is thin if you're looking at Arizona being among your countable wins. But there's the Pac-12 tournament, too, so let's say we're the one seed and we get another win over Cal and UCLA as part of that. That makes things look a little rosier. Stanford should do well enough to get a top 16 ranking and host the first two rounds, but they may need to win out to get a top 8 seed given how thin the schedule is. 

That's the computer rankings, though, and the Tennis Channel/USTA is putting out a Top 25 poll (the ITA rankings are top 75) that draws on journalists and other folks in the tennis world, which gives you a better sense of how that world views each team, so like the AP poll of college tennis. Again, here's how it looks for us and the teams on our schedule:

4. UVA (L)
6. Texas (W)
9. Stanford
10. Pepperdine
14. Cal
19. UCLA
21. Washington
23. USC
24. Arizona State

UCSB is at the end of the "others receiving votes" list.

**

Knowing that a trip to Indoor Nationals depended on beating a very good UVA team in Charlottesville, I would've really loved to see a somewhat more aggressive non-conference calendar this year. There are a bunch of good teams that we should still beat out there. Michigan, Vanderbilt, Duke, etc. 

Anyway, going forward, we are very big fans of Texas, UVA, and Pepperdine, and we want the Pac-12 to roll through every non-conference match they have left. If UVA keeps doing well, that loss doesn't hurt us much, and that Texas win looks better and better the more they win. How Pepperdine affects us, well, we'll find out on Sunday.

RE: Women's Tennis: New Rankings, Pepperdine, and Oregon - ColoradoTree - 03-02-2022

Video link for Oregon match (I think): https://web.playsight.com/live/stanford-university-tennis/101

Video link for Pepperdine match: https://pepperdinewaves.com/sports/2018/8/7/playsight.aspx

The link on the official website still links to the old streamingtennis site, but it seems like the program has moved on from that but not yet made it official.

**

Around the conference as Pac-12 play kicks off:

* The L.A. schools go to the mountain schools
* Cal also hosts Oregon, but that's their only match
* The WA schools go to the AZ schools, and UA also hosts Colorado State, so that's a busy weekend for them.

Notable matches last week:

* Cal lost to Texas 4-3. Texas won a competitive doubles point and then got straight-set wins at 1 (Stearns over Giavara), 3 (Zeynalova over Ivanov), and 6 (Ovrootsky over Viller Moeller). Meanwhile, Cal got their wins at 2 from Alsola over Kylie Collins (6-0 in the third), 4 from freshman Wiersholm over Chavatipon, and Rosenqvist at 5 over Zamarripa. Compare that to our result, where we got smoked in doubles and only got one straight-set win, a beatdown at 6 by Choy. Zamarripa didn't play for Texas, so that affected their 5 and 6 lines against us, but we needed three sets to win on the top 3 courts and on 5, though both Ma and Xu won their third sets in convincing fashion.
* UCLA beat USC 4-1 in a non-conference matchup. UCLA won doubles handily; UCLA's Forbes won a close one at 1 over Cayetano; UCLA's Bolton and USC's Ewing were locked in a tight one at 2 that went unfinished; USC's Snow Han rolled over Vagramov at 3; UCLA's Hance won handily over Sloane Morra; Court 5 was in a third set; and UCLA freshman Ava Catanzarite ate a breadstick but won the second and third sets handily over Danielle Willson. Combine this with a win over Cal the weekend before, and UCLA may be getting out of their early-season funk.

RE: Women's Tennis: New Rankings, Pepperdine, and Oregon - EBSteve - 03-02-2022

Thanks, ColoradoTree, for all your long-time in-depth reporting and analysis for Stanford women's tennis! Yes, playsight.com offers more statistical info for the specific matches, but I liked the old video system too. If anyone needs the playsight vid link, just go to the women's tennis twitter page just before the match. One last thing: I've been watching Stanford tennis for decades but have to tell you that the recent match vs Texas blew me away. Against last year's NCAA champion that reportedly lost only two of their top six, Stanford won five of six singles matches, including all four of the 3-setters. But the best thing about it was watching Ma "paint the lines" like a pro.

RE: Women's Tennis: New Rankings, Pepperdine, and Oregon - oldalum - 03-03-2022

help me understand our Pac-12 conference schedule: 5 home matches followed by 5 away matches?! What's up with that?

RE: Women's Tennis: New Rankings, Pepperdine, and Oregon - ColoradoTree - 03-03-2022

(03-03-2022, 07:55 AM)oldalum Wrote:  help me understand our Pac-12 conference schedule: 5 home matches followed by 5 away matches?! What's up with that?

Oh, there's no understanding it. 

For a more normal schedule, look at the L.A. schools: at the mountain schools, then home to the Arizona schools, then a NorCal swing to play us, Cal, and St. Mary's, then home to the Washington schools, home to Pepperdine and Oregon, and then they play each other. Or look at the Washington schools: at UA/ASU, home to Utah/Colorado, away to Oregon, away to UCLA/USC, home to Stanford/Cal, and then they play each other.
(03-02-2022, 09:54 PM)EBSteve Wrote:  Thanks, ColoradoTree, for all your long-time in-depth reporting and analysis for Stanford women's tennis! Yes, playsight.com offers more statistical info for the specific matches, but I liked the old video system too. If anyone needs the playsight vid link, just go to the women's tennis twitter page just before the match. One last thing: I've been watching Stanford tennis for decades but have to tell you that the recent match vs Texas blew me away. Against last year's NCAA champion that reportedly lost only two of their top six, Stanford won five of six singles matches, including all four of the 3-setters. But the best thing about it was watching Ma "paint the lines" like a pro.

She's so good. If she's starting to find her footing as a collegiate player, then look out. Her potential is crazy high. That win over Stearns will be one that keeps on giving in terms of Ma's individual ranking, as Stearns should do very well the rest of the year. Same sort of ranking algorithm in singles as with the team, so she's got some great countable wins: #4 Stearns, #17 Yepifanova, #35 Crawley, 2x #46 Kozyreva, and #56 Han, with opportunities coming, maybe twice over, against #5 Cayetano, #115 Forbes (who should absolutely climb the rankings as the season wears on), and Cal's Giavara, who I'm surprised isn't ranked, but who is a top 30-type player. And her four losses won't cost her much: #2 Frayman, #28 Navarro, #45 Flores, and Florida's Briggs.

Our #4 spot still seems relatively weak, but I feel great about 1-3 and 5-6. 

EDIT: sorry, not sure what happened there between reviewing and submitting!

RE: Women's Tennis: New Rankings, Pepperdine, and Oregon - BostonCard - 03-03-2022

(03-03-2022, 10:45 AM)ColoradoTree Wrote:  Our #4 spot still seems relatively weak, but I feel great about 1-3 and 5-6. 
And her four losses won't cost her much: #2 Frayman, #28 Navarro, #45 Flores, and Florida's Briggs. Plus, she'll

Don’t leave us hanging!

BC

RE: Women's Tennis: New Rankings, Pepperdine, and Oregon - ColoradoTree - 03-04-2022

Quick look at Oregon:

* They lost top 5 player Janice Tjen, who took the country by storm as a freshman last year, to Pepperdine, where her game has slipped a bit--she's playing #4 singles for the Waves.
* They're ranked #49, and they're currently 8-2. 
* Prior to last year's upset win by Oregon, Stanford had never lost to the Ducks.
* Early-season losses to Tulsa and UNC Charlotte suggested a weak team, but they've done well since, beating #53 Wisconsin 4-3, #51 Denver 4-2, and St. Mary's 4-1. In each of those three wins, Oregon won the doubles point, so expect a competitive doubles point. 
* In singles, we're favored on every line, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a close match at #4. Here's how we'll likely line up:

1. #18 Ma vs. Sophie Luescher (Fr., Switzerland)
2. #17 Yepifanova vs. Myah Petchey (So., England)
3. Blake vs. Ares Teixido Garcia (So., Spain, Alabama transfer)
4. Houghton vs. Lillian Mould (So., England)
5. #65 Xu vs. Uxia Martinez Moral (So., Spain)
6. Choy vs. Karin Young (Fr., the great state of Minnesota)

So, while Stanford is the better team, Oregon is a very young team, and things can be pretty variable with young teams. And yes, a very international team as well, as Oregon tennis isn't much of a draw to the best domestic players. In the individual tournaments last fall, Mould beat Madurawe 6-3, 6-4 and Ma beat Teixido Garcia 6-2, 6-1, but that looks to be it. Not sure if they'll play it out, but if they don't, this feels like it should be 4-0 though it could be 4-1 if we're bad in doubles. If we play it out, somewhere from 5-2 to 7-0, but this should be a straightforward win to kick off Pac-12 play.
In doubles, Ma/Blake and Xu/Yepifanova are each up a break at 3-1 apiece, whereas Geller/Madurawe on Court 3 is down a break, 1-3.
Make that 4-1, 4-1, and 1-4. Geller/Madurawe not clicking today.
Geller/Madurawer drop a head-scratcher 1-6, but Blake/Ma take their match by a mirror-image score, and Xu/Yepifanova take their 6-2 for the doubles point. (Or, at least, I think they did. Xu was serving for the set, my computer froze, and then now it says there is no live streaming currently, so I'm putting two and two together here.)

RE: Women's Tennis: New Rankings, Pepperdine, and Oregon - oldalum - 03-04-2022

yes, Xu/Y won 6-2. Any thoughts on how Geller is playing in doubles? I wonder if Choy/Madurawe might be a stronger #3 doubles team at the moment?

RE: Women's Tennis: New Rankings, Pepperdine, and Oregon - ColoradoTree - 03-04-2022

(03-04-2022, 03:14 PM)oldalum Wrote:  any thoughts on how Geller is playing in doubles? I wonder if Choy/Madurawe might be a stronger #3 doubles team at the moment?

Seems adrift. A really surprising loss of form from our #4 singles player last year who knocked off a top 30 player in Pepperdine's Flores just a couple months ago. If we had collegiate women's tennis press conferences, I'd ask Lele about it, but as it is, I'm as curious about why she's playing as poorly as she is as anyone.

I figured #3 doubles was a way to keep her playing and keep her head in matches as she figured out her singles form, but yeah, Choy/Madurawe seems like a better bet at the moment.
Stanford 1, Oregon 0

1. Ma leads 3-0
2. Yepifanova leads 3-0
3. Blake leads 3-0
4. Houghton leads 2-0
5. Xu leads 2-0
6. Choy leads 2-0

So, uh, a good start.

RE: Women's Tennis: New Rankings, Pepperdine, and Oregon - ColoradoTree - 03-04-2022

Stanford 1, Oregon 0

1. Ma leads 6-4, 0-0
2. Yepifanova leads 6-2, 2-3
3. Blake leads 6-1, 3-1
4. Houghton leads 6-3, 1-0
5. Xu leads 6-3, 1-1
6. Choy leads 6-1, 1-2

Bit of a momentum shift Oregon's way there, helped by some sloppy play from us. But Stanford regains its footing and is in control. Ma is absolutely the superior player, and Luescher is playing well, but this feels like Ma just not being super sharp. Luescher is one of those players who is just super consistent at getting the ball back, and Ma is getting frustrated and going for too much to hurry up and end the point. But that said, she still took the first set, so let's see if she gets sharper in the second. 

First sets in order: Blake, Yepi, Choy, Xu, Houghton, Ma

RE: Women's Tennis: New Rankings, Pepperdine, and Oregon - fullmetal - 03-04-2022

Livestream link: https://web.playsight.com/facility/stanford-university-tennis/home

It seems you need to create an account, which I have not yet done.

RE: Women's Tennis: New Rankings, Pepperdine, and Oregon - ColoradoTree - 03-04-2022

Stanford 3, Oregon 0

1. Ma leads 6-4, 2-3 (down a break)
2. Yepifanova won 6-3, 6-3
3. Blake won 6-1, 6-1
4. Houghton leads 6-3, 5-2 and is serving for the match now
5. Xu leads 6-3, 4-4
6. Choy leads 6-1, 3-6?  

Not quite sure what's happening on 6--it previously showed Choy leading the second 4-3, so either that was in error or this current score is wrong, but either way, they're still playing. Seen a couple games finish with no update in score now.
Stanford 4, Oregon 0

1. Ma leads 6-4, 5-4
4. Houghton wins 6-3, 6-3 to clinch!
5. Xu tied 6-3, 4-6
6. Choy leads 6-1, 3-6, 2-1

They play on, though this is one of those that I wouldn't mind them calling at clinch. A few where we're not super sharp and might as well end those now and start fresh in a couple of days. That said, figuring out a way to win those matches would be a nice boost heading into a much tougher match on Sunday. Ma broke back in her second set and then consolidated to go one game away. 

Xu is in a match tiebreaker for her match, and Choy's score remains unchanged on playsight, but the team twitter account says she's up 2-1 in the third, so there you have it.
5-0 as Ma takes it 6-4, 6-4!

Xu up 7-1 in her match tiebreaker, so she's closing in. 

Not sure on Choy, but I wouldn't bet against her. She'll be mad to be the last match on court.
6-0 as Xu turns on the gas and wins the match tiebreaker 10-3. All eyes on Court 6, where I think Choy leads 3-2.

RE: Women's Tennis: New Rankings, Pepperdine, and Oregon - martyup - 03-04-2022

6-1 over Ducks.  Bam!!

RE: Women's Tennis: New Rankings, Pepperdine, and Oregon - ColoradoTree - 03-06-2022

Not sure what happened with Choy at the end because my feed kept glitching, but unless she was injured, that’s just a terrible loss for her. A lesser player, less experienced to boot, and Choy took the first set 6-1 and looked like she was off to the races. 

I’m also concerned about Xu needing a match tiebreaker for hers. Both of those matches should have been our easiest wins. 

But it’s behind us because the rest of the team took care of business. And really, isn’t that the best way to have a frustrating individual match? Choy’s loss is fairly low-cost, whereas Yepifanova’s against UVA had some major consequences. 

But that’s over and done with. In about 45 minutes, we have a test that will be right up there with UVA and Texas. Pepperdine is a great team, and doubly so in Malibu.
FYI, Pepperdine says there’s a campus-wide power outage, so they’re anticipating no live stats or video today. Team Twitter accounts it is!

RE: Women's Tennis: New Rankings, Pepperdine, and Oregon - ColoradoTree - 03-06-2022

Looks like Pepperdine’s twitter account will give frequent updates. They’re @WavesTennis

RE: Women's Tennis: New Rankings, Pepperdine, and Oregon - ColoradoTree - 03-06-2022

Doubles point goes to Pepperdine. Need to find four wins in singles, and that’s a very tall order. Not beyond us, of course, but Pepperdine is ranked where they are for a reason. Xu and Choy have to be better than they were against Oregon, that’s for sure. Especially since I’d be shocked if Houghton were able to beat Tjen on Court 4. They’re just at different levels, even if Tjen hasn’t played her best so far this year.
A little bit of roster shuffling from Pepperdine in the middle:

1. #18 Ma vs. #23 Pachkaleva
2. #17 Yepifanova vs. #12 Zaar
3. Blake vs. #88 Tjen
4. Houghton vs. #117 Broadus
5. #65 Xu vs. #45 Flores
6. Choy vs. Iamachkine

The Waves are a very deep, excellent team. This would be a heckuva win if we can pull it off. Hard to find a spot in the lineup to pencil in a win like we can do against lesser teams.

RE: Women's Tennis: New Rankings, Pepperdine, and Oregon - ColoradoTree - 03-06-2022

Competitive so far on each court, except for 2, where Yepifanova trails 5-2.

RE: Women's Tennis: New Rankings, Pepperdine, and Oregon - Lorcan - 03-06-2022

1️⃣ Ma 2-6
2️⃣ Yepifanova 2-6
3️⃣ Blake 5-4
4️⃣ Houghton 3-4
5️⃣ Xu 4-3
6️⃣ Choy 2-6


Work to do.
1. 6-2, 1-1
2. 6-2, 1-2
3. 7-5, 0-0
4. 4-6, 1-0
5. 6-5
6. 6-2, 3-0

(Scores from Pepperdine's point of view. It looks like Houghton is the only one who's picked up the 1st set, with Xu still in play.)
Power is back on so you can watch, but no live scoring yet so have to take their twitter word as law on the scores:

https://pepperdinewaves.com/sports/2018/8/7/playsight.aspx

RE: Women's Tennis: New Rankings, Pepperdine, and Oregon - Lorcan - 03-06-2022

[twitter]https://twitter.com/StanfordWTennis/status/1500596192178151424[/twitter]

RE: Women's Tennis: New Rankings, Pepperdine, and Oregon - EBSteve - 03-06-2022

Fyi, Stanford's women's tennis twitter page has Ma winning 6-2, 6-2 on court 1.