03-02-2022, 10:26 AM
(This post was last modified: 03-02-2022, 11:28 AM by ColoradoTree.)
Stanford kicks off Pac-12 play with a home match vs. Oregon at 1:30pm on Friday, 3/5, but much more important is this Sunday's trip to Malibu to play Pepperdine.
Pepperdine is 6-3, but all three losses are close ones to good teams. The Waves lost 4-3 to Cal on Jan. 22, but avenged that loss with a 4-1 win at Indoor Nationals. They've also beaten UCLA 5-2, Old Dominion 4-1, and Michigan 4-3, against losses to Oklahoma and Ohio State.
After Pepperdine comes a six-match homestand (vs. CU, Utah, UCSB, USC, UCLA, and Hawaii) and then we finish the regular season with five on the road (@ UA, ASU, UW, WSU, Cal) before heading to Ojai for Pac-12s.
This team is very capable, and now it has a signature win, over Texas. But the problem is, we need several signature wins, so that'll mean a very successful run in Pac-12 play. And this Sunday in Malibu is a great chance for another.
New Rankings
The algorithm-based ITA rankings dropped this morning, and Stanford moves up from 64th to 25th. As a reminder, it counts a certain number of wins and subtracts points for losses, with a minimal hit for losing to a good team and a bigger hit for losing to a worse team. Stanford is unquestionably better than #25, but they don't have much of a resume yet. If we thought we'd be higher now, then we were betting on making it to Indoor Nationals. Texas marks their first win that should count by the end of the season, and while the UVA loss isn't damaging in terms of rankings points lost, it closed the door to great opportunities to rack up quality wins at National Indoors. Pepperdine is a great chance to add another to the list this Sunday, and we'd get the 10% points bonus for road wins, too. Here's how it looks for us and the teams on our schedule:
5. Texas (W)
6. Pepperdine
10. Cal
12. UVA (L)
16. UCLA
17. Arizona State
21. USC
25. Stanford
27. Utah
29. UCSB
33. Washington
44. Arizona
49. Oregon
58. Arkansas (W)
So, the Pac-12 being solid this year helps us, but only if we win nearly all of those matches. If we need ten solid wins to have a high ranking and seed come NCAAs, here's what that looks like: (1) Texas, (2) Pepperdine (away), (3) Cal (away), (4) UCLA, (5) ASU (away), (6) USC, (7) Utah, (8) UCSB, (9) UW (away), and (10) Arizona (away). And that's IF we win out, so the schedule really is thin if you're looking at Arizona being among your countable wins. But there's the Pac-12 tournament, too, so let's say we're the one seed and we get another win over Cal and UCLA as part of that. That makes things look a little rosier. Stanford should do well enough to get a top 16 ranking and host the first two rounds, but they may need to win out to get a top 8 seed given how thin the schedule is.
That's the computer rankings, though, and the Tennis Channel/USTA is putting out a Top 25 poll (the ITA rankings are top 75) that draws on journalists and other folks in the tennis world, which gives you a better sense of how that world views each team, so like the AP poll of college tennis. Again, here's how it looks for us and the teams on our schedule:
4. UVA (L)
6. Texas (W)
9. Stanford
10. Pepperdine
14. Cal
19. UCLA
21. Washington
23. USC
24. Arizona State
UCSB is at the end of the "others receiving votes" list.
**
Knowing that a trip to Indoor Nationals depended on beating a very good UVA team in Charlottesville, I would've really loved to see a somewhat more aggressive non-conference calendar this year. There are a bunch of good teams that we should still beat out there. Michigan, Vanderbilt, Duke, etc.
Anyway, going forward, we are very big fans of Texas, UVA, and Pepperdine, and we want the Pac-12 to roll through every non-conference match they have left. If UVA keeps doing well, that loss doesn't hurt us much, and that Texas win looks better and better the more they win. How Pepperdine affects us, well, we'll find out on Sunday.
Pepperdine is 6-3, but all three losses are close ones to good teams. The Waves lost 4-3 to Cal on Jan. 22, but avenged that loss with a 4-1 win at Indoor Nationals. They've also beaten UCLA 5-2, Old Dominion 4-1, and Michigan 4-3, against losses to Oklahoma and Ohio State.
After Pepperdine comes a six-match homestand (vs. CU, Utah, UCSB, USC, UCLA, and Hawaii) and then we finish the regular season with five on the road (@ UA, ASU, UW, WSU, Cal) before heading to Ojai for Pac-12s.
This team is very capable, and now it has a signature win, over Texas. But the problem is, we need several signature wins, so that'll mean a very successful run in Pac-12 play. And this Sunday in Malibu is a great chance for another.
New Rankings
The algorithm-based ITA rankings dropped this morning, and Stanford moves up from 64th to 25th. As a reminder, it counts a certain number of wins and subtracts points for losses, with a minimal hit for losing to a good team and a bigger hit for losing to a worse team. Stanford is unquestionably better than #25, but they don't have much of a resume yet. If we thought we'd be higher now, then we were betting on making it to Indoor Nationals. Texas marks their first win that should count by the end of the season, and while the UVA loss isn't damaging in terms of rankings points lost, it closed the door to great opportunities to rack up quality wins at National Indoors. Pepperdine is a great chance to add another to the list this Sunday, and we'd get the 10% points bonus for road wins, too. Here's how it looks for us and the teams on our schedule:
5. Texas (W)
6. Pepperdine
10. Cal
12. UVA (L)
16. UCLA
17. Arizona State
21. USC
25. Stanford
27. Utah
29. UCSB
33. Washington
44. Arizona
49. Oregon
58. Arkansas (W)
So, the Pac-12 being solid this year helps us, but only if we win nearly all of those matches. If we need ten solid wins to have a high ranking and seed come NCAAs, here's what that looks like: (1) Texas, (2) Pepperdine (away), (3) Cal (away), (4) UCLA, (5) ASU (away), (6) USC, (7) Utah, (8) UCSB, (9) UW (away), and (10) Arizona (away). And that's IF we win out, so the schedule really is thin if you're looking at Arizona being among your countable wins. But there's the Pac-12 tournament, too, so let's say we're the one seed and we get another win over Cal and UCLA as part of that. That makes things look a little rosier. Stanford should do well enough to get a top 16 ranking and host the first two rounds, but they may need to win out to get a top 8 seed given how thin the schedule is.
That's the computer rankings, though, and the Tennis Channel/USTA is putting out a Top 25 poll (the ITA rankings are top 75) that draws on journalists and other folks in the tennis world, which gives you a better sense of how that world views each team, so like the AP poll of college tennis. Again, here's how it looks for us and the teams on our schedule:
4. UVA (L)
6. Texas (W)
9. Stanford
10. Pepperdine
14. Cal
19. UCLA
21. Washington
23. USC
24. Arizona State
UCSB is at the end of the "others receiving votes" list.
**
Knowing that a trip to Indoor Nationals depended on beating a very good UVA team in Charlottesville, I would've really loved to see a somewhat more aggressive non-conference calendar this year. There are a bunch of good teams that we should still beat out there. Michigan, Vanderbilt, Duke, etc.
Anyway, going forward, we are very big fans of Texas, UVA, and Pepperdine, and we want the Pac-12 to roll through every non-conference match they have left. If UVA keeps doing well, that loss doesn't hurt us much, and that Texas win looks better and better the more they win. How Pepperdine affects us, well, we'll find out on Sunday.

