Beavs favored by a TD - Printable Version

Beavs favored by a TD - Printable Version

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Beavs favored by a TD - Austroturf - 10-03-2022

Opening line is OSU -7. Probably justified. With a bit of good fortune, we could actually win this one, especially in view of how Utah spanked them last weekend. Without the chips falling our way, we lose, even at home.

Jonathan Smith has resurrected this perennial doormat. Let's see for how long. Tough to be a consistent winner in Corvallis.

RE: Beavs favored by a TD - gailtate - 10-03-2022

(10-03-2022, 01:51 PM)Austroturf Wrote: Opening line is OSU -7. Probably justified. With a bit of good fortune, we could actually win this one, especially in view of how Utah spanked them last weekend. Without the chips falling our way, we lose, even at home.

Jonathan Smith has resurrected this perennial doormat. Let's see for how long. Tough to be a consistent winner in Corvallis.

Probably justified? Grab these these points and run. Clearly, the word on Stanford is not well circulated. What, Palo Alto is a home "shield" advantage? You kidding me?! I say Beavs and fans outnumber the homeys. And dam the Cardinal.

RE: Beavs favored by a TD - Austroturf - 10-04-2022

(10-03-2022, 02:04 PM)gailtate Wrote:
(10-03-2022, 01:51 PM)Austroturf Wrote: Opening line is OSU -7. Probably justified. With a bit of good fortune, we could actually win this one, especially in view of how Utah spanked them last weekend. Without the chips falling our way, we lose, even at home.

Jonathan Smith has resurrected this perennial doormat. Let's see for how long. Tough to be a consistent winner in Corvallis.

Probably justified? Grab these these points and run. Clearly, the word on Stanford is not well circulated. What, Palo Alto is a home "shield" advantage? You kidding me?! I say Beavs and fans outnumber the homeys. And dam the Cardinal.

You could be right! Utah's resounding victory over the Beavers was aided by 4 Oregon State turnovers. Don't think we will be that fortunate (or skillful) given our current turnover deficit.

RE: Beavs favored by a TD - JohnR34231 - 10-04-2022

(10-04-2022, 01:10 AM)Austroturf Wrote:
(10-03-2022, 02:04 PM)gailtate Wrote:
(10-03-2022, 01:51 PM)Austroturf Wrote: Opening line is OSU -7. Probably justified. With a bit of good fortune, we could actually win this one, especially in view of how Utah spanked them last weekend. Without the chips falling our way, we lose, even at home.

Jonathan Smith has resurrected this perennial doormat. Let's see for how long. Tough to be a consistent winner in Corvallis.

Probably justified? Grab these these points and run. Clearly, the word on Stanford is not well circulated. What, Palo Alto is a home "shield" advantage? You kidding me?! I say Beavs and fans outnumber the homeys. And dam the Cardinal.

You could be right! Utah's resounding victory over the Beavers was aided by 4 Oregon State turnovers. Don't think we will be that fortunate (or skillful) given our current turnover deficit.

I think a lot depends on which OSU team shows up. The one who came within a play of upsetting U$C or the one who got blown out by Utah.
At any rate, if we are to win any conference games this year, this is one of our better opportunities.

RE: Beavs favored by a TD - lex24 - 10-04-2022

Bet the Farm on the Beavers. Lay the 7.

RE: Beavs favored by a TD - msqueri - 10-04-2022

The thing that fascinates me about 11 straight losses ATS and seven straight major college football games losing by two scores or more is that the spreads, to the best of my recollection, didn't deviate a lot from the computers. Say what you will about computers, but the algorithms are objective and based on a ton of data. For us to continually do worse than projected for a year is amazing. I don't really know how to explain it. I suppose my hypothesis would be that the program is imploding and, to a degree, getting worse each week as a result. A wasting asset. In that sense, the computers/Vegas are always a step behind because the program keeps getting worse. I don't know, just trying to make sense of the oddity of 11 straight losses ATS.

It is possible Vegas is now trying to price this in and be more pessimistic about Stanford than computer algorithms/objective data would suggest. Sagarin predicts that Oregon State beats us by 4.31 points. That's obviously a few points less than the actual spread. This spread itself could be an effort to price in what a wasting asset Stanford football is.

RE: Beavs favored by a TD - rogpodge - 10-04-2022

The computers, especially early in the season, use the past three seasons (SP+) or at least a combination of recruiting quality and the last season to weight the expected performance. When Bill Connelly was on footballstudyhall, he had detailed previews of each team and how variability might affect single game performance. Our little COVID blip ray of hope season is having continuing effects on the computer rankings.

That being said, losing 11 straight games against the spread is an astonishing amount of incompetence. We haven't been close to covering in most of the games. Even terrible teams like Louisiana-Monroe, UConn, New Mexico State, and UMass cover once in a while. This year, the only teams that have failed to cover at least one game are: Stanford, Colorado, Colorado State, and Fresno State. What do all of them have in common? Previously decent teams that are going through a transition. Except for Stanford... where the coaching staff has remained stable.

RE: Beavs favored by a TD - Mick - 10-04-2022

(10-04-2022, 02:23 PM)msqueri Wrote: The thing that fascinates me about 11 straight losses ATS and seven straight major college football games losing by two scores or more is that the spreads, to the best of my recollection, didn't deviate a lot from the computers. Say what you will about computers, but the algorithms are objective and based on a ton of data. For us to continually do worse than projected for a year is amazing. I don't really know how to explain it. I suppose my hypothesis would be that the program is imploding and, to a degree, getting worse each week as a result. A wasting asset. In that sense, the computers/Vegas are always a step behind because the program keeps getting worse. I don't know, just trying to make sense of the oddity of 11 straight losses ATS.

It is possible Vegas is now trying to price this in and be more pessimistic about Stanford than computer algorithms/objective data would suggest. Sagarin predicts that Oregon State beats us by 4.31 points. That's obviously a few points less than the actual spread. This spread itself could be an effort to price in what a wasting asset Stanford football is.

I think that Shaw is losing the team, bit by bit. A few players a week. I think that phenomenon explains the 11 straight ATS losses.

RE: Beavs favored by a TD - Spiny_Norman - 10-04-2022

Injury report. Kyu Blu Kelly will be out this week.

[twitter]https://twitter.com/TroyClardy/status/1577373960102027265[/twitter]

RE: Beavs favored by a TD - CowboyIndian - 10-04-2022

(10-04-2022, 02:23 PM)msqueri Wrote: I suppose my hypothesis would be that the program is imploding and, to a degree, getting worse each week as a result.

For the past two seasons we have, in fact, gotten worse every week and we will no doubt continue.

RE: Beavs favored by a TD - cardcrimson - 10-05-2022

(10-04-2022, 03:50 AM)JohnR34231 Wrote: I think a lot depends on which OSU team shows up. The one who came within a play of upsetting U$C or the one who got blown out by Utah.
At any rate, if we are to win any conference games this year, this is one of our better opportunities.

Looking at the Utah game, IIRC, OSU out ran them, out passed them, and had more time of possession. What killed them were 4 ints, including a pick six. I think what matters is if OSU's starting QB plays and is healthy.

RE: Beavs favored by a TD - JohnR34231 - 10-06-2022

(10-05-2022, 06:27 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:
(10-04-2022, 03:50 AM)JohnR34231 Wrote: I think a lot depends on which OSU team shows up. The one who came within a play of upsetting U$C or the one who got blown out by Utah.
At any rate, if we are to win any conference games this year, this is one of our better opportunities.
Looking at the Utah game, IIRC, OSU out ran them, out passed them, and had more time of possession. What killed them were 4 ints, including a pick six. I think what matters is if OSU's starting QB plays and is healthy.

Their starting QB is questionable for this weeks game.
If OSU plays error free ball, I agree we are toast. They are going to have to make more mistakes than we do for us to have a chance.

RE: Beavs favored by a TD - ADPinWDC - 10-06-2022

(10-06-2022, 04:30 AM)JohnR34231 Wrote:
(10-05-2022, 06:27 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:
(10-04-2022, 03:50 AM)JohnR34231 Wrote: I think a lot depends on which OSU team shows up. The one who came within a play of upsetting U$C or the one who got blown out by Utah.
At any rate, if we are to win any conference games this year, this is one of our better opportunities.
Looking at the Utah game, IIRC, OSU out ran them, out passed them, and had more time of possession. What killed them were 4 ints, including a pick six. I think what matters is if OSU's starting QB plays and is healthy.
Their starting QB is questionable for this weeks game.
If OSU plays error free ball, I agree we are toast. They are going to have to make more mistakes than we do for us to have a chance.

QB Nolan is "day to day" after neck strain last week, the 42-16 loss @UTAH.
ORST put up 417 yards of Offense against the toughest defense in Pac-12, with a second string QB, but the 4 INTs were lethal.
https://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/2022/10/chance-nolan-or-ben-gulbranson-oregon-state-decision-to-come-near-end-of-week-on-starting-qb-vs-stanford.html
All-Am CB Clark Phillips for Utah pulled off the Hat Trick on INTs killing the Beavs.
https://www.deseret.com/2022/10/1/23380517/utah-football-clark-phillips-kyle-whittingham-rj-hubert

Our Defense lacks the ability to apply pressure, so maybe a frosh, backup QB can be enough?
Beavs cover the 7, because we don't have KB Kelly at CB. We need TOs to win the game.
Perhaps ORST 34, STAN 23

RE: Beavs favored by a TD - PVTree - 10-07-2022

We smoke these guys! We have a shot, and this is the best chance to win another home game.

RE: Beavs favored by a TD - MV72018 - 10-07-2022

(10-07-2022, 09:21 PM)PVTree Wrote: We smoke these guys! We have a shot, and this is the best chance to win another home game.

The first home encounter, with Colgate, can only be described as a pre-season exhibition.

RE: Beavs favored by a TD - Brickcity - 10-07-2022

(10-07-2022, 09:21 PM)PVTree Wrote: We smoke these guys! We have a shot, and this is the best chance to win another home game.

I won't lie: I will be firmly rooting for OSU. While one or two more wins this season SHOULDN'T be enough to save Shaw's job, with Muir you never know.

RE: Beavs favored by a TD - pefloresjr - 10-07-2022

(10-07-2022, 10:56 PM)Brickcity Wrote:
(10-07-2022, 09:21 PM)PVTree Wrote: We smoke these guys! We have a shot, and this is the best chance to win another home game.

I won't lie: I will be firmly rooting for OSU. While one or two more wins this season SHOULDN'T be enough to save Shaw's job, with Muir you never know.

Nope, nope, nope. That is a very "USC" attitude. It is a sin for moral humans to root against their team.

Cheers,
Pete F.

RE: Beavs favored by a TD - JohnR34231 - 10-08-2022

(10-07-2022, 11:44 PM)pefloresjr Wrote:
(10-07-2022, 10:56 PM)Brickcity Wrote:
(10-07-2022, 09:21 PM)PVTree Wrote: We smoke these guys! We have a shot, and this is the best chance to win another home game.

I won't lie: I will be firmly rooting for OSU. While one or two more wins this season SHOULDN'T be enough to save Shaw's job, with Muir you never know.

Nope, nope, nope. That is a very "USC" attitude. It is a sin for moral humans to root against their team.

Cheers,
Pete F.

Agree. I will never reach the point where I am hoping for the team to lose so the coach has a better chance of being fired.
BTW I read where OSU's starting QB is definitely out for the game.
Losing to Oregon State playing their second string QB would probably chart a new low for Stanford. Gotta admit that.

RE: Beavs favored by a TD - Maple Leaf - 10-08-2022

(10-08-2022, 05:01 AM)JohnR34231 Wrote:
(10-07-2022, 11:44 PM)pefloresjr Wrote:
(10-07-2022, 10:56 PM)Brickcity Wrote: [quote="PVTree" pid='365361' dateline='1665202882']
We smoke these guys! We have a shot, and this is the best chance to win another home game.

I won't lie: I will be firmly rooting for OSU. While one or two more wins this season SHOULDN'T be enough to save Shaw's job, with Muir you never know.
[/q

Nope, nope, nope. That is a very "USC" attitude. It is a sin for moral humans to root against their team.

Cheers,
Pete F.

Agree. I will never reach the point where I am hoping for the team to lose so the coach has a better chance of being fired.
BTW I read where OSU's starting QB is definitely out for the game.
Losing to Oregon State playing their second string QB would probably chart a new low for Stanford. Gotta admit that.

Losing to a second string QB by Stanford is not uncommon, there at too many painful instances that I have experience in the last 60+ years to remember.

RE: Beavs favored by a TD - JohnR34231 - 10-08-2022

(10-08-2022, 06:16 AM)Maple Leaf Wrote:
(10-08-2022, 05:01 AM)JohnR34231 Wrote:
(10-07-2022, 11:44 PM)pefloresjr Wrote:
(10-07-2022, 10:56 PM)Brickcity Wrote: [quote="PVTree" pid='365361' dateline='1665202882']
We smoke these guys! We have a shot, and this is the best chance to win another home game.

I won't lie: I will be firmly rooting for OSU. While one or two more wins this season SHOULDN'T be enough to save Shaw's job, with Muir you never know.
[/q

Nope, nope, nope. That is a very "USC" attitude. It is a sin for moral humans to root against their team.

Cheers,
Pete F.

Agree. I will never reach the point where I am hoping for the team to lose so the coach has a better chance of being fired.
BTW I read where OSU's starting QB is definitely out for the game.
Losing to Oregon State playing their second string QB would probably chart a new low for Stanford. Gotta admit that.

Losing to a second string QB by Stanford is not uncommon, there at too many painful instances that I have experience in the last 60+ years to remember.

I realize that. However, we are 10-1 against the Beavs in the Shaw regime. Losing at home to OSU with their second string QB is a little different. At least IMO.