WBB: Stanford 67 North Carolina State 77 season ends - Printable Version
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WBB: Stanford 67 North Carolina State 77 season ends - 81alum - 03-25-2024
Preview: Stanford vs. North Carolina State, Friday 4:30
North Carolina State defeated Tennessee to advance to the sweet sixteen, and will play us on Friday in Portland. We had better get used to playing them, since they are now a leading power in our new conference.
North Carolina State is 29-6 and was second to Virginia Tech won the regular season title in the ACC regular season, though they narrowly lost in their conference tournament final to Notre Dame. They were seeded 3rd in our region. Massey has them at 11, NET has them at 9. Their best wins have been over UConn, Colorado, and Notre Dame. They have lost to Miami (Fl), Virginia Tech (twice), North Carolina, Duke, and Notre Dame.
North Carolina State is coached by Wes Moore, who really made a name for NCS two years ago when he took them to the final four before losing in double overtime to Uconn. This year’s team does not have the gaudy numbers that the 21-22 team had, but is very strong. Their greatest strength is their quick, close defense that holds opponents under 60 points per game. Their weakness may be their depth. Only 7 players average double digit minutes, and in recent games they have sometimes played only 6.
NC State is 8th in the nation in field goal defense, on par with Oregon State. We are 10th. They average about 7 steals a game. On offense the most important thing to know is this: their five starters ALL average 10 or more points a game. They make about 6 three point shots a game—so the perimeter is an option for them although they are not as dependent on it as Iowa State. Instead, seemingly all their players are very quick and they all seem to be able to make lightning drives around their defenders to the basket. Such even balance makes it impossible to consider doubling one by sagging off of another.
Their leading scorer is Aziaha James, a 5’9” junior guard who averages 16ppg and uses her speed and accuracy to fill up the stat sheet. Saniya Rivers is a 6’1” junior averaging 14 ppg. Madison Hayes is a 6’0” senior averaging 11 points. Mimi Collins, a 6’3” grad student and River Baldwin, a 6’5” grad student provide them with inside size and each provides about 11 ppg.
Thus North Carolina State has size, speed, and experience. In watching their game against Tennessee I was cheering for Tennessee since I think we match up much better with teams that play more conventionally. NC State looked to me to be exactly the kind of team we have trouble with—their speed and quickness on the perimeter are problems for us both offensively and defensively. Three of their players have over 100 assists. While three point shooting is not the main focus, James has hit 62 of them and Hayes has hit 43 at better than 40%.
North Carolina gave up 33 points to Rickea Jackson who was doing her best Kiki Iriafen immitation today. But NC State countered with two players over 20 and four in double digits. Their stop-and-pop shooting in the midrange looked deadly and carried the bulk of their scoring, as they had only 5/14 three pointers and were 14/19 at the free throw line. Giving up the mid range jumpers is normally the poison we would choose in trying to deny our opponents the high percentage layups and the high reward three pointers, but it seemed that they were a feature of the North Carolina State offense.
I do think that Iriafen and Brink, if they both can stay in the game, can score on Baldwin and Collins, though they may need to hit a lot of jumpers of their own. I worry very much about who will defend Aziaha James in particular, but basically all the very quick NC State perimeter players. And I doubt that we will get our three point shooting going against the quickness and closeness of the NC State defense.
Tara truly is a basketball genius, and I have followed her for long enough to know that we shall be prepared to pull a lot of rabbits out of a lot of hats. But her famous scouting-report defense depends on finding the opponent's weakness and exploiting it, and I am not sure there is one, other than lack of depth. Teams with 5 double digit scorers have always given Tara's teams trouble, which is why our wins over UConn were few and far between. To win this one is going to require that we can stay in front of at least 4 speedy, quick players who like to stop and pop or drive. If we can’t do that effectively, we will simply have to have monster games out of both Iriafen and Brink, and get some help from elsewhere as well.
And we could. North Carolina's bigs are not as gifted as ours are. If the game is called appropriately, our inside play might balance their outside play, and we could have a chance in this one.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina State Friday ??? - Bampa - 03-25-2024
Warning: three of NC State's guards scored a combined 58 points.
Tara needs to get the team ready for this type of play.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina State Friday ??? - Spiny_Norman - 03-25-2024
One small correction, 81. NC State was T2 in the ACC. Virginia Tech won the regular season.
Also sharp-eyed Stanford fans will remember Rivers from her time with South Carolina where she started as a frosh before transferring to NC State.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina State Friday ??? - WBB fan - 03-25-2024
Another great preview, 81. Thanks!
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina State Friday ??? - 81alum - 03-25-2024
(03-25-2024, 06:26 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote: One small correction, 81. NC State was T2 in the ACC. Virginia Tech won the regular season.Thank you, Spiny!
Also sharp-eyed Stanford fans will remember Rivers from her time with South Carolina where she started as a frosh before transferring to NC State.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina State Friday ??? - TheWildJacko - 03-25-2024
We play at 4:30pm PT on ESPN according to the graphic at the end of the Utah-Gonzaga game.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina State Friday ??? - 82 Card - 03-25-2024
(03-25-2024, 09:47 PM)TheWildJacko Wrote: We play at 4:30pm PT on ESPN according to the graphic at the end of the Utah-Gonzaga game.
The tournament brackets on ESPN's site have been updated with the next round of games. Stanford plays at 4:30 on Friday. OSU plays at 11:30 on Friday. UCLA plays 10 AM Saturday. Colorado plays at 12:30 Saturday. USC plays at 2:30 Saturday. All times Pacific. At least the Stanford game will be on in prime time on the east coast.
https://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracket
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina State Friday ??? - M T - 03-25-2024
I would think our guards will be told to defend for the stop-and-pop. If the opponent gets by them, they’ll have to deal with a shot blocker.
I certainly don’t agree with “At least…”
I would rather we play in prime time on the West Coast. We probably lose more viewers by being during business hours on the West Coast than we gain by on the East Coast. I don’t normally consider leaving work until after the game would be over.
That’s another downside of the questionable jump to the ACC. Everyone will be unhappy with the scheduling of half the games. Or, if ESPN calls the shots, the Stanford area fans will be unhappy with more than half.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina State Friday 4:30 - 81alum - 03-26-2024
I rewatched the North Carolina State vs. Tennessee game. NCS had 29 fast break points and 40 points in the paint--out of 79 points. We will need to get back on defense quickly, which will mean fewer O-boards for us. To have a chance, we really have to force NCS to play in the half court offense.
NCS did seem to slow down a little as the game went on. It will be very important to "weather the storm" as our players adjust to the quickness of our opponent early in the game and avoid getting down early. If the game is close going into the fourth quarter, and if our bigs are both available and not in deep foul trouble, then I like our chances.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina State Friday 4:30 - OCcardinal - 03-26-2024
Here are NC State and Stanford's rankings among 2024 tournament teams through 2 games:
Stat NC St/Stanford
Offensive Rating 20/6
Defensive Rating 10/18
FG% 39/13
2pt% 33/11
3pt% 34/14
EFG% 37/13
Points Per Play 17/7
Points Per Scoring Attempt 32/12
Asst/TO 47/11
Pace 42/41
Per game:
Points 24/4
Points Allowed 7/25
ORB 50/38
DRB 3/9
TRB 7/13
Asst 40/8
TOV 1/22
Stl 48/36
Blk 18/4
PF 10/27
Some of the stats above are distorted due to the fact that Stanford played that (very high scoring) overtime period, but it's good to see our offensive rating look comparatively good. The Massey defensive ratings of the teams we faced in the first two rounds were fairly similar:
NC St vs...
Chattanooga 65
Tennessee 50
Stanford vs..
Norfolk St. 80
Iowa St. 54
Looks like NC State doesn't turn the ball over, but they also don't get many assists. So just a lot of hero ball with that speed? Interesting that the pace is nearly identical for both teams.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina State Friday 4:30 - Hieronymus - 03-26-2024
I am really worried about turnovers and guard rebounding in this one. All guards combined had … 1 rebound vs. ISU. We have lived on our rebounding edge this year, but that has disappeared lately as last years team rebounding woes have come back in spades. We may be worried about NC St breaking on us and cede the offensive rebounding side of things like we did vs. USC in the PAC tournament final as well.
76lsjumb - 76lsjumb - 03-26-2024
(03-26-2024, 10:08 AM)Hieronymus Wrote: I am really worried about turnovers and guard rebounding in this one. All guards combined had … 1 rebound vs. ISU. We have lived on our rebounding edge this year, but that has disappeared lately as last years team rebounding woes have come back in spades. We may be worried about NC St breaking on us and cede the offensive rebounding side of things like we did vs. USC in the PAC tournament final as well.
As far as rebounding goes, I’m hopeful our team is watching that Buffalo Wild Wings guy and learning a few lessons…
Gotta box out!
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina State Friday 4:30 - BosCard - 03-26-2024
(03-26-2024, 10:08 AM)Hieronymus Wrote: I am really worried about turnovers and guard rebounding in this one. All guards combined had … 1 rebound vs. ISU. We have lived on our rebounding edge this year, but that has disappeared lately as last years team rebounding woes have come back in spades. We may be worried about NC St breaking on us and cede the offensive rebounding side of things like we did vs. USC in the PAC tournament final as well.
I thought the rebounding problems against USC were because we weren’t used to boxing out / rebounding with the junk defense we were using to stop Watkins. We need Cam and Kiki playing 30 plus minutes to win. Cam shooting and Kiki getting the o-board or vice versa is our formula for this game and all future games if we keep advancing.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina State Friday 4:30 - MV72018 - 03-26-2024
(03-26-2024, 03:04 PM)BosCard Wrote:(03-26-2024, 10:08 AM)Hieronymus Wrote: I am really worried about turnovers and guard rebounding in this one. All guards combined had … 1 rebound vs. ISU. We have lived on our rebounding edge this year, but that has disappeared lately as last years team rebounding woes have come back in spades. We may be worried about NC St breaking on us and cede the offensive rebounding side of things like we did vs. USC in the PAC tournament final as well.
I thought the rebounding problems against USC were because we weren’t used to boxing out / rebounding with the junk defense we were using to stop Watkins. We need Cam and Kiki playing 30 plus minutes to win. Cam shooting and Kiki getting the o-board or vice versa is our formula for this game and all future games if we keep advancing.
At this juncture I regard Iriakin as far more of a scoring threat than Cam. Cam has no go-to shot that is reliable. Her O comes primarily from occasional short jumpers (like the opportunity Agara gave her by getting her the ball 10 feet away in the key against Iowa State), some putbacks, an occasional trey, and assorted spinning layups from the block, often becoming "and ones." I don't regard her turn-around one-footed shot as reliable at this point.
One key that I'd like to call attention to is the truly lackluster job our perimeter D does on closeouts. Our perimeter defenders get picked off screens and then don't recover in time to prevent open looks. Lepolo, Jump, and Bosgana are culpable in this regard. Look at the tape of the Iowa St. game and see how many open looks their guards had and where the defenders were when the shots were released.
The reason I'm calling attention to that here is that NC State has a number of plays designed to get their perimeter shooters open looks, and not only by ball screens. They will even screen a defender so that the offensive player she was guarding can relocate ro the opposite side of the court, get a pass, and get off an open trey without a defender even being close. I hope I'm wrong, but I'd be surprised if Stanford was able to prevent many open trey looks against NC state. That could cost us.
I've noticed one other disturbing trend: on many occasions an opposing player with the ball blows right past one of our guards because that defender didn't move her feet, was flat-footed, and almost stood motionless as the driver went by unimpeded a step or two ahead. Result? Cam or Kiki is the last line of defense and vulnerable to picking up an extra foul.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina State Friday 4:30 - BillBradley - 03-26-2024
I'll be happy if our guards defend the 3 point line and force the opposing guards to penetrate. We have the nation's top shot blocker who's quite good at altering shots and protecting the rim. We've played many games this year where the other team was unable to overcome Cam's defensive presence. But she can't do much if they are raining down 3's from the outside...
Also, Massey has us as a 5 point favorite and the Vegas line is Stanford -4.5.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina State Friday 4:30 - SkiBum80 - 03-26-2024
(03-26-2024, 10:08 AM)Hieronymus Wrote: I am really worried about turnovers and guard rebounding in this one. All guards combined had … 1 rebound vs. ISU. We have lived on our rebounding edge this year, but that has disappeared lately as last years team rebounding woes have come back in spades. We may be worried about NC St breaking on us and cede the offensive rebounding side of things like we did vs. USC in the PAC tournament final as well.Likewise.
Our "Guards" law firm of Lepolo, Bosgana, Ogden & Harriel (Clardy as alternate), are gonna need a better game than ISU, vs NC St if we are to win. Yes Lepolo had 7 assists, but some of these were not anything inspired, just dumping an easy post entry pass into one of our bigs who then worked magic. Not much points or rebounds out of them, and lots of blown defense, like getting brushed off on a screen and then lost as to where to go or who to guard next. I have not much to add about the veterans of Cam, Kiki, and Hannah as they always seem to find major ways to contribute even if one of their off nights. Agara too seems to me to be stepping up to be like that. Often making a contribution as soon as into the game. Brooke a puzzle as she can be clutch, or not, even within the same game.
But assuming our veterans are good to great as usual, our Guards law firm performance is gonna be the deciding factor vs NC State IMO.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina State Friday 4:30 - M T - 03-26-2024
(03-26-2024, 03:50 PM)MV72018 Wrote: . Cam has no go-to shot that is reliable. Her O comes primarily from occasional short jumpers (like the opportunity Agara gave her by getting her the ball 10 feet away in the key against Iowa State), some putbacks, an occasional trey, and assorted spinning layups from the block, often becoming "and ones."
It only took those few lines for me to know who wrote that stuff. I don't like having to feel like rebutting the continual negative comments that are unsubstantiated. May I remind you that these occasional shots, some putbacks, etc, add up to 17.5 points per game. Add to that 11.9 rebounds/game and almost 4 blocks per game. Both Iriafen and Brink average 27.5 points/40 minutes,
Life's too short. I won't be reading your posts any more.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina State Friday 4:30 - BostonCard - 03-26-2024
Stanford is fourth in the nation in rebounding margin, with an average rebounding margin of 12.3/game.
https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-women/d1/current/team/117
The other team wants it too, and sometimes they actually get after it better than you, but that does not negate the notion that the Stanford women's basketball team is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation. FWIW, Iowa State is also a top-10 rebounding margin team. And, in our only game against them, we out rebounded the top rebounding team in the nation 44-29.
BC
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina State Friday 4:30 - SkiBum80 - 03-26-2024
(03-26-2024, 05:51 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Stanford is fourth in the nation in rebounding margin, with an average rebounding margin of 12.3/game.
https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-women/d1/current/team/117
The other team wants it too, and sometimes they actually get after it better than you, but that does not negate the notion that the Stanford women's basketball team is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation. FWIW, Iowa State is also a top-10 rebounding margin team. And, in our only game against them, we out rebounded the top rebounding team in the nation 44-29.
BC
Confused by end of your post. ESPN box score shows us being outrebounded 42-36 by Iowa State.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina State Friday 4:30 - 82 Card - 03-26-2024
(03-26-2024, 05:58 PM)SkiBum80 Wrote:(03-26-2024, 05:51 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Stanford is fourth in the nation in rebounding margin, with an average rebounding margin of 12.3/game.
https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-women/d1/current/team/117
The other team wants it too, and sometimes they actually get after it better than you, but that does not negate the notion that the Stanford women's basketball team is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation. FWIW, Iowa State is also a top-10 rebounding margin team. And, in our only game against them, we out rebounded the top rebounding team in the nation 44-29.
BC
Confused by end of your post. ESPN box score shows us being outrebounded 42-36 by Iowa State.
According to the linked chart, the top rebounding team is UCLA. Stats for the UCLA game: https://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/boxscore/_/gameId/401609706