Posts: 2,578
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Joined: Dec 2013
Jaylon Smith is a poster boy for those playing the potential injury angle to justify CMac sitting out the Sun Bowl. It seems to be a legitimate concern. Smith is said to have lost $20mm as a result of his injury. But anecdotal stuff is just that. Our resident statisticians might have access to more generalized information about the risks of various levels of injury and the consequent dollar loss as a result of a player's suffering impairment of their actual draft position. Regardless, of what those probabilities are, the fact that they can be identified should make the situation insurable. Doesn't this kind of insurance exist? Is it prohibitively expensive? Smith's loss suggests that the potential losses involved warrant paying pretty substantial premiums. But again, what is the frequency of a player's loss even coming close to that of Smith, who combined super-stardom with a tragically severe injury to suffer a maximum loss?
Where Christian's decision affects me is in my sense of who he is. Unchanged is my feeling that he is one of the five to ten most gifted and exciting football players I have ever seen at the college level. My sense of his character is unfazed. I believe he is honest, trustworthy and probably flosses regularly. He is clearly very bright, personable and quite articulate and I think he will always represent Stanford in a manner for which I will be truly grateful.
What he is not is even a tiny bit romantic. Nothing of the essence of his college football experience appeared to come into play in this decision. It is a calibrated and calculated move. It reflects an approach that prioritizes optimizing the last dollar of value extracted at the price of irreplaceable memories for both him and us.Â
Granted, I am assuming that there is insurance available that could replace most, if not all, of the losses caused by a traumatic injury. It is all at the margins. But if insurance were available and his dad could afford to buy it, then the financial downside would be covered. In that event, his downside would become the loss of the premium paid and any improvement in his draft status derived from being otherwise able to prepare for the combine. The latter is truly inconsequential and is so small and subjectively assessed as to be effectively zero. Again, I think all of us agree that, if there is an injury involved that is not being mentioned, we can understand his need to sit out.
If there is no consideration needed for an existing injury, though, I think he is being "penny wise, and pound foolish". Sometimes we get so caught up in being so analytical and quantitative that we lose focus on the stuff that matters. I had a friend that loved to ridicule new MBA's obsession with precision by describing them as "arbitrarily exact". Maximizing the dollars makes him look just like the NCAA and the Bowl sponsors we love to deride for their egregious greed. And it is only going to get worse at the next level. The Sun Bowl would have been fun for him. Doing all the pre-game schtick with his teammates would have been a hoot and and it just won't be the same ever again. It may be great in the pros. It may even be greater. But it will not be his final college game.
"It's not what you don't know that gets you in trouble. It's what you think you know that just isn't so."
Mark Twain