[BostonCard]

https://twitter.com/lombardihimself/stat...7077618688

Great news that this is even a possibility!

BC

[BostonCard]

https://twitter.com/lombardihimself/stat...7077618688

Great news that this is even a possibility!

BC

[Snorlax94]

Phew!

The odds of a particularly good season just increased a bit.

[Snorlax94]

Phew!

The odds of a particularly good season just increased a bit.

[fullmetal]

As long as he's coming back 100% and not risking further injury to his knee, sure.  The Rice game is not one where we absolutely need Chryst to win.  Game experience and any new playcalling will be invaluable vs. U$C in week 2, however.  Maybe this is a reflection of the coaching staff's concern about Chryst being ready in week 2.

[fullmetal]

As long as he's coming back 100% and not risking further injury to his knee, sure.  The Rice game is not one where we absolutely need Chryst to win.  Game experience and any new playcalling will be invaluable vs. U$C in week 2, however.  Maybe this is a reflection of the coaching staff's concern about Chryst being ready in week 2.

[CTcard]

Maybe this is a reflection of the coaching staff's concern about Chryst being ready in week 2.

Maybe it's just a sign that Chryst's knee is looking pretty strong.

It's not actually different from what Shaw has been saying for months, just seems to be an increased level of confidence as the recovery has apparently remained on track.

[CTcard]

Maybe this is a reflection of the coaching staff's concern about Chryst being ready in week 2.

Maybe it's just a sign that Chryst's knee is looking pretty strong.

It's not actually different from what Shaw has been saying for months, just seems to be an increased level of confidence as the recovery has apparently remained on track.

[johnnyo53]

EVEN WITH A QUESTIONABLE KNEE HE'S THE BEST WE'VE GOT AT THIS POINT.

[johnnyo53]

EVEN WITH A QUESTIONABLE KNEE HE'S THE BEST WE'VE GOT AT THIS POINT.

[dabigv13]

If so, let's hope he's a lot better than last year. I was hoping Costello would seize the job, but doesn't seem to be the case.

[dabigv13]

If so, let's hope he's a lot better than last year. I was hoping Costello would seize the job, but doesn't seem to be the case.

[Hurlburt88]

I'd love for us to get a strong start, sit Keller after the 1st half, and allow Burns and Costello to each play a quarter. 

[Hurlburt88]

I'd love for us to get a strong start, sit Keller after the 1st half, and allow Burns and Costello to each play a quarter. 

[BobK]

Last year Keller was 6-0 with 10 TDs and 2 interceptions

[BobK]

Last year Keller was 6-0 with 10 TDs and 2 interceptions

[dabigv13]

Against horrible competition, and with a QB rating about the same as Burns. I mean, we all watched those games right? He did win games, which is what counts in the end, but I was not left with a lot of confidence in his ability to be a QB who can lead us to conference wins.

[dabigv13]

Against horrible competition, and with a QB rating about the same as Burns. I mean, we all watched those games right? He did win games, which is what counts in the end, but I was not left with a lot of confidence in his ability to be a QB who can lead us to conference wins.

[fullmetal]

My eval of Chryst lines up with dabigv's.  But I'm hopeful he's made significant progress, though the open practice report doesn't substantiate that.  Keller may need to play the whole game vs. Rice just to get in more live reps.

[fullmetal]

My eval of Chryst lines up with dabigv's.  But I'm hopeful he's made significant progress, though the open practice report doesn't substantiate that.  Keller may need to play the whole game vs. Rice just to get in more live reps.

[Goose]

My eval of Chryst lines up with dabigv's.  But I'm hopeful he's made significant progress, though the open practice report doesn't substantiate that.  Keller may need to play the whole game vs. Rice just to get in more live reps.

The largest issue in my mind is the OL, with the QB second. Unfortunately, unless both are much worse than we expect, we won't learn much against Rice. The coaches will undoubtedly learn more than the fans, but I suspect only a bit more.  We won't know what we have until we see USC.

[Goose]

My eval of Chryst lines up with dabigv's.  But I'm hopeful he's made significant progress, though the open practice report doesn't substantiate that.  Keller may need to play the whole game vs. Rice just to get in more live reps.

The largest issue in my mind is the OL, with the QB second. Unfortunately, unless both are much worse than we expect, we won't learn much against Rice. The coaches will undoubtedly learn more than the fans, but I suspect only a bit more.  We won't know what we have until we see USC.

[ChicagoCard]

Are their QB ratings really the same? Burns had 5 TDs and 7 INTs last year. Vs Chryst's 10 TDs, 2 INTs as Bob wrote. Whatever the complex reasons, they appeared to be going in different directions last season.

[ChicagoCard]

Are their QB ratings really the same? Burns had 5 TDs and 7 INTs last year. Vs Chryst's 10 TDs, 2 INTs as Bob wrote. Whatever the complex reasons, they appeared to be going in different directions last season.

[Mick]

Are their QB ratings really the same? Burns had 5 TDs and 7 INTs last year. Vs Chryst's 10 TDs, 2 INTs as Bob wrote. Whatever the complex reasons, they appeared to be going in different directions last season.

Rk, Player, Cmp, Att, Pct, Yds, Y/A, AY/A, TD, Int, Rate
Ryan Burns 102 167 61.1 1151 6.9 5.6 5 7 120.5
Keller Chryst 77 136 56.6 905 6.7 7.5 10 2 133.8

[Mick]

Are their QB ratings really the same? Burns had 5 TDs and 7 INTs last year. Vs Chryst's 10 TDs, 2 INTs as Bob wrote. Whatever the complex reasons, they appeared to be going in different directions last season.

Rk, Player, Cmp, Att, Pct, Yds, Y/A, AY/A, TD, Int, Rate
Ryan Burns 102 167 61.1 1151 6.9 5.6 5 7 120.5
Keller Chryst 77 136 56.6 905 6.7 7.5 10 2 133.8

[Hulk01]

Adjusted for the generally strong defenses he faced, the Burns’ offense averaged 5.26 yards per play. Over a full year, that would rank 100th in the nation and 11th in the Pac 12.

The Chryst offense—the five games he started and finished—averaged 6.35 adjusted yards per play.  That equates to 45th in the nation and 4th in the Pac-12. 

The Sun Bowl seemed to highlight, and repeat, the difference in our two offenses. 
Chryst offense: 16 plays, 106 yards, 6.7 yards per play, no sacks, no offensive penalties
Burns’ offense: 49 plays, 159 yards, 3.1 yards per play, two sacks, eight offensive penalties

[Hulk01]

Adjusted for the generally strong defenses he faced, the Burns’ offense averaged 5.26 yards per play. Over a full year, that would rank 100th in the nation and 11th in the Pac 12.

The Chryst offense—the five games he started and finished—averaged 6.35 adjusted yards per play.  That equates to 45th in the nation and 4th in the Pac-12. 

The Sun Bowl seemed to highlight, and repeat, the difference in our two offenses. 
Chryst offense: 16 plays, 106 yards, 6.7 yards per play, no sacks, no offensive penalties
Burns’ offense: 49 plays, 159 yards, 3.1 yards per play, two sacks, eight offensive penalties

[fullmetal]

You're right in that Chryst looked substantively better than Burns vs. UNC in the Sun Bowl.  But when dabigv says that he's not left with a whole lot of confidence in Chryst, I'm with him there...yeah, I was spoiled by Luck and Hogan, but that's where Chryst needs to be to win a slate of hard conference games.  I think his throwing ability is closer to Luck's, but his decision-making is not yet at the level of Luck/Hogan...and that was no good behind a moderately cohesive OL last season.

Chryst is better than Burns for sure.  Will Chryst lead Stanford to the promised land?  Jury's out on that one though the defense will make it easier on him (just manage the game...).

[fullmetal]

You're right in that Chryst looked substantively better than Burns vs. UNC in the Sun Bowl.  But when dabigv says that he's not left with a whole lot of confidence in Chryst, I'm with him there...yeah, I was spoiled by Luck and Hogan, but that's where Chryst needs to be to win a slate of hard conference games.  I think his throwing ability is closer to Luck's, but his decision-making is not yet at the level of Luck/Hogan...and that was no good behind a moderately cohesive OL last season.

Chryst is better than Burns for sure.  Will Chryst lead Stanford to the promised land?  Jury's out on that one though the defense will make it easier on him (just manage the game...).

[Phogge]

Like anything other than Rocky Marciano (undefeated), Oue Sera Sera. Going to be entertaining and if it's not entertaining why watch? IMO, the Sun Bowl was not very entertaining until the final two point try. I hope there is a number of close games to make the coming season more fun. Get's everybody ready for the full maturation of the team in 2018.

[Phogge]

Like anything other than Rocky Marciano (undefeated), Oue Sera Sera. Going to be entertaining and if it's not entertaining why watch? IMO, the Sun Bowl was not very entertaining until the final two point try. I hope there is a number of close games to make the coming season more fun. Get's everybody ready for the full maturation of the team in 2018.

[CTcard]

Against horrible competition, and with a QB rating about the same as Burns. I mean, we all watched those games right? He did win games, which is what counts in the end, but I was not left with a lot of confidence in his ability to be a QB who can lead us to conference wins.

I think that the evaluation of Chryst deserves a little more than this. So, here are some things.

Probably the most important thing is to watch, so I give a few links at the bottom to do that.

Chryst started six games.
They fall into three distinct categories.

Category 1 - First two games started
Opponents = Arizona, Oregon State
Arizona's defense was quite poor (#9/115 total D yds/gm; #9/96 total D yds/play; #105 S&P+ ), Oregon State's was decent (#8/79 yds/gm; #7/68 yds/play; #49 S&P+)
In these games Chryst's passing was not good.
Stats = 24-47, 164 yds, 51%, 2 TD, 1 INT, PER = 90.2
Vs Arizona, his running (outside of sacks) was not notable (1 carry, 3 yards) 
Vs OSU, he was a very effective runner. 10 carries, 84 yards. (sacks excluded)
The offense overall performed at least pretty well in both games, relatively easy wins.

Category 2 - Next three games
Opponents = Oregon, Cal, Rice
These were indeed three bad defenses, with cal probably the least awful at S&P+ #106.
But, in these games Chryst was far better.
Passing stats: 43-65, 610 yds, 66%, 7 TDs, 0 INTs, PER = 180.5
Those are good numbers.
Rushing (excluding sacks): 8 carries, 96 yds, 12 yds/carry
Still ran effectively, though less often than vs OSU.

Category 3 - Bowl Game
Opponent UNC
Didn't play enough for a meaningful evaluation, though things were off to a decent start.



Despite the bad defenses, it's very clear that Chryst made substantial improvement after the Oregon State game - and really in the OSU game vs the Arizona game. Evaluating Chryst only on his average numbers (which are also heavily weighted by his disastrous relief performance vs WSU) misses much of what we saw and learned about Chryst.

Despite the bad defenses, I'd say Chryst played very well for three games, and was off to a perfectly fine start vs UNC when he got injured. It's true that playing well against bad defenses is not the same test as vs good defenses, but it's not correct to imply that Chryst's prospects equal his average performance or that we simply have nothing to judge on because of the weaker defenses.

More importantly, one should watch. Even in the better games, Chryst didn't make every play but did make some very nice passes and some good decisions.
I think all of his games are available in Football in 60 Minutes format from the Pac 12 networks video page, but here are some youtube links of Chryst's games:

Good Chryst:
Oregon: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cvcZNBy3mss
ןɐɔ: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqMrSxmaDGA
Rice: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNtKpZ1LajA
[This is a compilation of the plays McCaffrey is in, but that's a good fraction of our offense on the day.]
UNC: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAnU6FEPBxg

Bad Chryst:
Can't find decent video of Arizona.
Oregon State: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rtwU0jxnMFI
end of WSU (time stamped to when Chryst came in): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QscP0dXejpE#t=1h56m11s

[CTcard]

Against horrible competition, and with a QB rating about the same as Burns. I mean, we all watched those games right? He did win games, which is what counts in the end, but I was not left with a lot of confidence in his ability to be a QB who can lead us to conference wins.

I think that the evaluation of Chryst deserves a little more than this. So, here are some things.

Probably the most important thing is to watch, so I give a few links at the bottom to do that.

Chryst started six games.
They fall into three distinct categories.

Category 1 - First two games started
Opponents = Arizona, Oregon State
Arizona's defense was quite poor (#9/115 total D yds/gm; #9/96 total D yds/play; #105 S&P+ ), Oregon State's was decent (#8/79 yds/gm; #7/68 yds/play; #49 S&P+)
In these games Chryst's passing was not good.
Stats = 24-47, 164 yds, 51%, 2 TD, 1 INT, PER = 90.2
Vs Arizona, his running (outside of sacks) was not notable (1 carry, 3 yards) 
Vs OSU, he was a very effective runner. 10 carries, 84 yards. (sacks excluded)
The offense overall performed at least pretty well in both games, relatively easy wins.

Category 2 - Next three games
Opponents = Oregon, Cal, Rice
These were indeed three bad defenses, with cal probably the least awful at S&P+ #106.
But, in these games Chryst was far better.
Passing stats: 43-65, 610 yds, 66%, 7 TDs, 0 INTs, PER = 180.5
Those are good numbers.
Rushing (excluding sacks): 8 carries, 96 yds, 12 yds/carry
Still ran effectively, though less often than vs OSU.

Category 3 - Bowl Game
Opponent UNC
Didn't play enough for a meaningful evaluation, though things were off to a decent start.



Despite the bad defenses, it's very clear that Chryst made substantial improvement after the Oregon State game - and really in the OSU game vs the Arizona game. Evaluating Chryst only on his average numbers (which are also heavily weighted by his disastrous relief performance vs WSU) misses much of what we saw and learned about Chryst.

Despite the bad defenses, I'd say Chryst played very well for three games, and was off to a perfectly fine start vs UNC when he got injured. It's true that playing well against bad defenses is not the same test as vs good defenses, but it's not correct to imply that Chryst's prospects equal his average performance or that we simply have nothing to judge on because of the weaker defenses.

More importantly, one should watch. Even in the better games, Chryst didn't make every play but did make some very nice passes and some good decisions.
I think all of his games are available in Football in 60 Minutes format from the Pac 12 networks video page, but here are some youtube links of Chryst's games:

Good Chryst:
Oregon: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cvcZNBy3mss
ןɐɔ: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqMrSxmaDGA
Rice: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNtKpZ1LajA
[This is a compilation of the plays McCaffrey is in, but that's a good fraction of our offense on the day.]
UNC: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAnU6FEPBxg

Bad Chryst:
Can't find decent video of Arizona.
Oregon State: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rtwU0jxnMFI
end of WSU (time stamped to when Chryst came in): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QscP0dXejpE#t=1h56m11s

[pcgoode]

[quote author=dabigv link=topic=17138.msg196858#msg196858 date=1502332392]
Against horrible competition, and with a QB rating about the same as Burns. I mean, we all watched those games right? He did win games, which is what counts in the end, but I was not left with a lot of confidence in his ability to be a QB who can lead us to conference wins.

I think that the evaluation of Chryst deserves a little more than this. So, here are some things.

Probably the most important thing is to watch, so I give a few links at the bottom to do that.

Chryst started six games.
They fall into three distinct categories.

Category 1 - First two games started
Opponents = Arizona, Oregon State
Arizona's defense was quite poor (#9/115 total D yds/gm; #9/96 total D yds/play; #105 S&P+ ), Oregon State's was decent (#8/79 yds/gm; #7/68 yds/play; #49 S&P+)
In these games Chryst's passing was not good.
Stats = 24-47, 164 yds, 51%, 2 TD, 1 INT, PER = 90.2
Vs Arizona, his running (outside of sacks) was not notable (1 carry, 3 yards) 
Vs OSU, he was a very effective runner. 10 carries, 84 yards. (sacks excluded)
The offense overall performed at least pretty well in both games, relatively easy wins.

Category 2 - Next three games
Opponents = Oregon, ןɐɔ, Rice
These were indeed three bad defenses, with ןɐɔ probably the least awful at S&P+ #106.
But, in these games Chryst was far better.
Passing stats: 43-65, 610 yds, 66%, 7 TDs, 0 INTs, PER = 180.5
Those are good numbers.
Rushing (excluding sacks): 8 carries, 96 yds, 12 yds/carry
Still ran effectively, though less often than vs OSU.

Category 3 - Bowl Game
Opponent UNC
Didn't play enough for a meaningful evaluation, though things were off to a decent start.



Despite the bad defenses, it's very clear that Chryst made substantial improvement after the Oregon State game - and really in the OSU game vs the Arizona game. Evaluating Chryst only on his average numbers (which are also heavily weighted by his disastrous relief performance vs WSU) misses much of what we saw and learned about Chryst.

Despite the bad defenses, I'd say Chryst played very well for three games, and was off to a perfectly fine start vs UNC when he got injured. It's true that playing well against bad defenses is not the same test as vs good defenses, but it's not correct to imply that Chryst's prospects equal his average performance or that we simply have nothing to judge on because of the weaker defenses.

More importantly, one should watch. Even in the better games, Chryst didn't make every play but did make some very nice passes and some good decisions.
I think all of his games are available in Football in 60 Minutes format from the Pac 12 networks video page, but here are some youtube links of Chryst's games:

Good Chryst:
Oregon: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cvcZNBy3mss
ןɐɔ: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqMrSxmaDGA
Rice: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNtKpZ1LajA
[This is a compilation of the plays McCaffrey is in, but that's a good fraction of our offense on the day.]
UNC: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAnU6FEPBxg

Bad Chryst:
Can't find decent video of Arizona.
Oregon State: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rtwU0jxnMFI
end of WSU (time stamped to when Chryst came in): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QscP0dXejpE#t=1h56m11s
[/quote]

I think CTcard has pretty much nailed it here. In particular, Chryst's performance against Oregon at Eugene really deserves a careful look. He made some beautiful throws and good decisions in that game.  If we get the Chryst from that game in 2017, I don't think we need to worry too much about QB play.

[pcgoode]

[quote author=dabigv link=topic=17138.msg196858#msg196858 date=1502332392]
Against horrible competition, and with a QB rating about the same as Burns. I mean, we all watched those games right? He did win games, which is what counts in the end, but I was not left with a lot of confidence in his ability to be a QB who can lead us to conference wins.

I think that the evaluation of Chryst deserves a little more than this. So, here are some things.

Probably the most important thing is to watch, so I give a few links at the bottom to do that.

Chryst started six games.
They fall into three distinct categories.

Category 1 - First two games started
Opponents = Arizona, Oregon State
Arizona's defense was quite poor (#9/115 total D yds/gm; #9/96 total D yds/play; #105 S&P+ ), Oregon State's was decent (#8/79 yds/gm; #7/68 yds/play; #49 S&P+)
In these games Chryst's passing was not good.
Stats = 24-47, 164 yds, 51%, 2 TD, 1 INT, PER = 90.2
Vs Arizona, his running (outside of sacks) was not notable (1 carry, 3 yards) 
Vs OSU, he was a very effective runner. 10 carries, 84 yards. (sacks excluded)
The offense overall performed at least pretty well in both games, relatively easy wins.

Category 2 - Next three games
Opponents = Oregon, ןɐɔ, Rice
These were indeed three bad defenses, with ןɐɔ probably the least awful at S&P+ #106.
But, in these games Chryst was far better.
Passing stats: 43-65, 610 yds, 66%, 7 TDs, 0 INTs, PER = 180.5
Those are good numbers.
Rushing (excluding sacks): 8 carries, 96 yds, 12 yds/carry
Still ran effectively, though less often than vs OSU.

Category 3 - Bowl Game
Opponent UNC
Didn't play enough for a meaningful evaluation, though things were off to a decent start.



Despite the bad defenses, it's very clear that Chryst made substantial improvement after the Oregon State game - and really in the OSU game vs the Arizona game. Evaluating Chryst only on his average numbers (which are also heavily weighted by his disastrous relief performance vs WSU) misses much of what we saw and learned about Chryst.

Despite the bad defenses, I'd say Chryst played very well for three games, and was off to a perfectly fine start vs UNC when he got injured. It's true that playing well against bad defenses is not the same test as vs good defenses, but it's not correct to imply that Chryst's prospects equal his average performance or that we simply have nothing to judge on because of the weaker defenses.

More importantly, one should watch. Even in the better games, Chryst didn't make every play but did make some very nice passes and some good decisions.
I think all of his games are available in Football in 60 Minutes format from the Pac 12 networks video page, but here are some youtube links of Chryst's games:

Good Chryst:
Oregon: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cvcZNBy3mss
ןɐɔ: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqMrSxmaDGA
Rice: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNtKpZ1LajA
[This is a compilation of the plays McCaffrey is in, but that's a good fraction of our offense on the day.]
UNC: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAnU6FEPBxg

Bad Chryst:
Can't find decent video of Arizona.
Oregon State: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rtwU0jxnMFI
end of WSU (time stamped to when Chryst came in): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QscP0dXejpE#t=1h56m11s
[/quote]

I think CTcard has pretty much nailed it here. In particular, Chryst's performance against Oregon at Eugene really deserves a careful look. He made some beautiful throws and good decisions in that game.  If we get the Chryst from that game in 2017, I don't think we need to worry too much about QB play.

[dabigv13]

I agree he looked a lot better in the later games, and hopefully that is due to growth and maturation, and not due to playing some of the worst defenses in CFB. But it will be difficult to erase the memories of all those just plain bad passes from last year...I can't recall so many inaccurate, uncatchable, in the dirt throws from a guy who ended up being a great QB.

[dabigv13]

I agree he looked a lot better in the later games, and hopefully that is due to growth and maturation, and not due to playing some of the worst defenses in CFB. But it will be difficult to erase the memories of all those just plain bad passes from last year...I can't recall so many inaccurate, uncatchable, in the dirt throws from a guy who ended up being a great QB.

[lex24]

To me the main plus is he improved significantly after his rough first 2 starts. Still the biggest question I have is his accuracy. And that is job 1 as far as I'm concerned. He has the arm strength and the mobility. If his accuracy improves he has the chance to be pretty darn good. But that is a  biggest if.

He reminds me a lot of Randy Fasani. A gifted athlete with a great arm. But not particularly accurate.

[lex24]

To me the main plus is he improved significantly after his rough first 2 starts. Still the biggest question I have is his accuracy. And that is job 1 as far as I'm concerned. He has the arm strength and the mobility. If his accuracy improves he has the chance to be pretty darn good. But that is a  biggest if.

He reminds me a lot of Randy Fasani. A gifted athlete with a great arm. But not particularly accurate.