04-08-2019, 07:59 PM
Wow. Didn't see that coming. Maybe she'll turn around and go to Louisville. :P
WBB: Thinking about 2019-2020
With the news of Jackie Young deciding to leave for the WNBA early, I thought I would give my opinion on some possible contenders for the national title next year:
Baylor -- Loses Kalani Brown and Chloe Jackson, but returning Lauren Cox, DiDi Richards and Juicy Landrum. Baylor's incoming class is apparently just one person, but a pretty good recruit, the #11 player in the country. They will still be tough, but not as tough with the graduation of Brown. They won't be as formidable inside as they are this year and they might transition to a more guard-oriented team with who's returning and who's coming in.
Notre Dame -- With Young's announcement, they lose their entire starting lineup! McGraw gets two top recruits in Samantha Brunelle and Anaya Peoples, but it will certainly be a rebuilding year for the Irish I think, as their returning player with the most minutes this year Abby Prohaska averaged 1.6 points a game and the one who totaled the most points, Mikayla Vaughn averaged 3.3 points.
UConn -- They lose Katie Lou Samuelson and Napheesa Collier, the duo who scored the most points in school history, so the returning players will have to fill the scoring gap. Dangerfield, Walker, Williams and Nelson-Ododa form a very talented core and for once, UConn will not have the top ranked recruit coming in. You think they might take a step back, but three years ago after graduating Stewart, Tuck and Jefferson, they went undefeated until losing on a buzzer beater to Mississippi State in the national semis, so you can never bet against the Huskies. I think with mostly guards and wings, Olivia Nelson-Ododa's development will be key. As seen in their loss to Baylor earlier in the season, UConn's Achilles Heel might be their inside game.
Oregon -- If you had to pick one team to be the early favorite for the title next year, I'll go with the Ducks right now. With Ionescu's return, they will have everyone back except Cazorla. It sounds like they will have a heavy international class coming in next year, so it's hard to really assess the talent level that's being added in Eugene. But their returning core were within a few points of making the national title game.
Louisville -- The Cardinals lose their two top scorers Asia Durr and Sam Fuehring and they gained the #12 and #99 recruits. I think they will take a step back, but it's all dependent on how their returners step up to fill the void.
South Carolina -- They have the top ranked recruiting class coming in, adding to a very solid Top-25 team. I think how far they go will depend on how quickly their freshmen acclimate to the college game. If Staley can get them going quickly, with the sheer amount of raw talent, they can start contending for the national title as quickly as next season, but that could potentially be a big ask.
Mississippi State -- I believe they lose their top three scorers in McCowan, Danberry and Howard, so they will have a lot to replace in Starksville. They will have the #9 recruit coming in to help fill the void, but similar to the Irish, it might be more of a rebuilding year next year.
That's just a brief overview of teams I thought of on top of my head, I'm sure there are other contenders as well. But just from this basic analysis, I think we are possibly primed for a good run next year as some of our top rivals take a step back.
Particularly, I believe Notre Dame, Mississippi State and Louisville will take significant steps back, Baylor and UConn might be potentially a little weaker, South Carolina is a big question mark and Oregon emerges as the favorite (at least on paper right now).
Baylor -- Loses Kalani Brown and Chloe Jackson, but returning Lauren Cox, DiDi Richards and Juicy Landrum. Baylor's incoming class is apparently just one person, but a pretty good recruit, the #11 player in the country. They will still be tough, but not as tough with the graduation of Brown. They won't be as formidable inside as they are this year and they might transition to a more guard-oriented team with who's returning and who's coming in.
Notre Dame -- With Young's announcement, they lose their entire starting lineup! McGraw gets two top recruits in Samantha Brunelle and Anaya Peoples, but it will certainly be a rebuilding year for the Irish I think, as their returning player with the most minutes this year Abby Prohaska averaged 1.6 points a game and the one who totaled the most points, Mikayla Vaughn averaged 3.3 points.
UConn -- They lose Katie Lou Samuelson and Napheesa Collier, the duo who scored the most points in school history, so the returning players will have to fill the scoring gap. Dangerfield, Walker, Williams and Nelson-Ododa form a very talented core and for once, UConn will not have the top ranked recruit coming in. You think they might take a step back, but three years ago after graduating Stewart, Tuck and Jefferson, they went undefeated until losing on a buzzer beater to Mississippi State in the national semis, so you can never bet against the Huskies. I think with mostly guards and wings, Olivia Nelson-Ododa's development will be key. As seen in their loss to Baylor earlier in the season, UConn's Achilles Heel might be their inside game.
Oregon -- If you had to pick one team to be the early favorite for the title next year, I'll go with the Ducks right now. With Ionescu's return, they will have everyone back except Cazorla. It sounds like they will have a heavy international class coming in next year, so it's hard to really assess the talent level that's being added in Eugene. But their returning core were within a few points of making the national title game.
Louisville -- The Cardinals lose their two top scorers Asia Durr and Sam Fuehring and they gained the #12 and #99 recruits. I think they will take a step back, but it's all dependent on how their returners step up to fill the void.
South Carolina -- They have the top ranked recruiting class coming in, adding to a very solid Top-25 team. I think how far they go will depend on how quickly their freshmen acclimate to the college game. If Staley can get them going quickly, with the sheer amount of raw talent, they can start contending for the national title as quickly as next season, but that could potentially be a big ask.
Mississippi State -- I believe they lose their top three scorers in McCowan, Danberry and Howard, so they will have a lot to replace in Starksville. They will have the #9 recruit coming in to help fill the void, but similar to the Irish, it might be more of a rebuilding year next year.
That's just a brief overview of teams I thought of on top of my head, I'm sure there are other contenders as well. But just from this basic analysis, I think we are possibly primed for a good run next year as some of our top rivals take a step back.
Particularly, I believe Notre Dame, Mississippi State and Louisville will take significant steps back, Baylor and UConn might be potentially a little weaker, South Carolina is a big question mark and Oregon emerges as the favorite (at least on paper right now).
(This post was last modified: 04-08-2019, 09:23 PM by TheFarm07.)
With the news of Jackie Young deciding to leave for the WNBA early, I thought I would give my opinion on some possible contenders for the national title next year:
Baylor -- Loses Kalani Brown and Chloe Jackson, but returning Lauren Cox, DiDi Richards and Juicy Landrum. Baylor's incoming class is apparently just one person, but a pretty good recruit, the #11 player in the country. They will still be tough, but not as tough with the graduation of Brown. They won't be as formidable inside as they are this year and they might transition to a more guard-oriented team with who's returning and who's coming in.
Notre Dame -- With Young's announcement, they lose their entire starting lineup! McGraw gets two top recruits in Samantha Brunelle and Anaya Peoples, but it will certainly be a rebuilding year for the Irish I think, as their returning player with the most minutes this year Abby Prohaska averaged 1.6 points a game and the one who totaled the most points, Mikayla Vaughn averaged 3.3 points.
UConn -- They lose Katie Lou Samuelson and Napheesa Collier, the duo who scored the most points in school history, so the returning players will have to fill the scoring gap. Dangerfield, Walker, Williams and Nelson-Ododa form a very talented core and for once, UConn will not have the top ranked recruit coming in. You think they might take a step back, but three years ago after graduating Stewart, Tuck and Jefferson, they went undefeated until losing on a buzzer beater to Mississippi State in the national semis, so you can never bet against the Huskies. I think with mostly guards and wings, Olivia Nelson-Ododa's development will be key. As seen in their loss to Baylor earlier in the season, UConn's Achilles Heel might be their inside game.
Oregon -- If you had to pick one team to be the early favorite for the title next year, I'll go with the Ducks right now. With Ionescu's return, they will have everyone back except Cazorla. It sounds like they will have a heavy international class coming in next year, so it's hard to really assess the talent level that's being added in Eugene. But their returning core were within a few points of making the national title game.
Louisville -- The Cardinals lose their two top scorers Asia Durr and Sam Fuehring and they gained the #12 and #99 recruits. I think they will take a step back, but it's all dependent on how their returners step up to fill the void.
South Carolina -- They have the top ranked recruiting class coming in, adding to a very solid Top-25 team. I think how far they go will depend on how quickly their freshmen acclimate to the college game. If Staley can get them going quickly, with the sheer amount of raw talent, they can start contending for the national title as quickly as next season, but that could potentially be a big ask.
Mississippi State -- I believe they lose their top three scorers in McCowan, Danberry and Howard, so they will have a lot to replace in Starksville. They will have the #9 recruit coming in to help fill the void, but similar to the Irish, it might be more of a rebuilding year next year.
That's just a brief overview of teams I thought of on top of my head, I'm sure there are other contenders as well. But just from this basic analysis, I think we are possibly primed for a good run next year as some of our top rivals take a step back.
Particularly, I believe Notre Dame, Mississippi State and Louisville will take significant steps back, Baylor and UConn might be potentially a little weaker, South Carolina is a big question mark and Oregon emerges as the favorite (at least on paper right now).
Baylor -- Loses Kalani Brown and Chloe Jackson, but returning Lauren Cox, DiDi Richards and Juicy Landrum. Baylor's incoming class is apparently just one person, but a pretty good recruit, the #11 player in the country. They will still be tough, but not as tough with the graduation of Brown. They won't be as formidable inside as they are this year and they might transition to a more guard-oriented team with who's returning and who's coming in.
Notre Dame -- With Young's announcement, they lose their entire starting lineup! McGraw gets two top recruits in Samantha Brunelle and Anaya Peoples, but it will certainly be a rebuilding year for the Irish I think, as their returning player with the most minutes this year Abby Prohaska averaged 1.6 points a game and the one who totaled the most points, Mikayla Vaughn averaged 3.3 points.
UConn -- They lose Katie Lou Samuelson and Napheesa Collier, the duo who scored the most points in school history, so the returning players will have to fill the scoring gap. Dangerfield, Walker, Williams and Nelson-Ododa form a very talented core and for once, UConn will not have the top ranked recruit coming in. You think they might take a step back, but three years ago after graduating Stewart, Tuck and Jefferson, they went undefeated until losing on a buzzer beater to Mississippi State in the national semis, so you can never bet against the Huskies. I think with mostly guards and wings, Olivia Nelson-Ododa's development will be key. As seen in their loss to Baylor earlier in the season, UConn's Achilles Heel might be their inside game.
Oregon -- If you had to pick one team to be the early favorite for the title next year, I'll go with the Ducks right now. With Ionescu's return, they will have everyone back except Cazorla. It sounds like they will have a heavy international class coming in next year, so it's hard to really assess the talent level that's being added in Eugene. But their returning core were within a few points of making the national title game.
Louisville -- The Cardinals lose their two top scorers Asia Durr and Sam Fuehring and they gained the #12 and #99 recruits. I think they will take a step back, but it's all dependent on how their returners step up to fill the void.
South Carolina -- They have the top ranked recruiting class coming in, adding to a very solid Top-25 team. I think how far they go will depend on how quickly their freshmen acclimate to the college game. If Staley can get them going quickly, with the sheer amount of raw talent, they can start contending for the national title as quickly as next season, but that could potentially be a big ask.
Mississippi State -- I believe they lose their top three scorers in McCowan, Danberry and Howard, so they will have a lot to replace in Starksville. They will have the #9 recruit coming in to help fill the void, but similar to the Irish, it might be more of a rebuilding year next year.
That's just a brief overview of teams I thought of on top of my head, I'm sure there are other contenders as well. But just from this basic analysis, I think we are possibly primed for a good run next year as some of our top rivals take a step back.
Particularly, I believe Notre Dame, Mississippi State and Louisville will take significant steps back, Baylor and UConn might be potentially a little weaker, South Carolina is a big question mark and Oregon emerges as the favorite (at least on paper right now).
(04-08-2019, 08:28 PM)TheFarm07 Wrote: UConn -- They lose Katie Lou Samuelson and Napheesa Collier, the duo who scored the most points in school history, so the returning players will have to fill the scoring gap. Dangerfield, Walker, Williams and Nelson-Ododa form a very talented core and for once, UConn will not have the top ranked recruit coming in. You think they might take a step back, but three years ago after graduating Stewart, Tuck and Jefferson, they went undefeated until losing on a buzzer beater to Mississippi State in the national semis, so you can never bet against the Huskies. I think with mostly guards and wings, Olivia Nelson-Ododa's development will be key. As seen in their loss to Baylor earlier in the season, UConn's Achilles Heel might be their inside game.
As mbdude posted above, UConn just signed a PG from Croatia, Nika Muhl. Geno traveled to Croatia to visit her at home last month.
https://www.courant.com/sports/uconn-wom...story.html
(04-08-2019, 08:28 PM)TheFarm07 Wrote: UConn -- They lose Katie Lou Samuelson and Napheesa Collier, the duo who scored the most points in school history, so the returning players will have to fill the scoring gap. Dangerfield, Walker, Williams and Nelson-Ododa form a very talented core and for once, UConn will not have the top ranked recruit coming in. You think they might take a step back, but three years ago after graduating Stewart, Tuck and Jefferson, they went undefeated until losing on a buzzer beater to Mississippi State in the national semis, so you can never bet against the Huskies. I think with mostly guards and wings, Olivia Nelson-Ododa's development will be key. As seen in their loss to Baylor earlier in the season, UConn's Achilles Heel might be their inside game.
As mbdude posted above, UConn just signed a PG from Croatia, Nika Muhl. Geno traveled to Croatia to visit her at home last month.
https://www.courant.com/sports/uconn-wom...story.html
04-09-2019, 07:31 AM
I'm almost certain Muhl is for 2020, so she won't alter the calculus for next year's team.
04-09-2019, 02:53 PM
TheFarm07,
I would love to see the same kind of analysis for us included. Just for laughs, I'll add my own unschooled thoughts.
I think Alanna is a big loss--bigger than her points and boards (and blocks). She was the mature "glue" that held the team together. At the same time, I think we will have more overall talent next year. I think I think that we will go as far as Haley Jones takes us next year. Not that she will necessarily be the star of the team, but I think she might be key in reconstituting the team post-Alanna. Fran B. could make important contributions, but I am concerned she is too raw as a basketball player to make those contributions early on.
Who is our post player? I think Ashton P. will have a ways to go before she is a realistic threat to take over that slot. Maya D.? I just don't see it unless there is a pretty dramatic transformation over summer. Nadia F.? I hope, but, still, I haven't seen enough from anyone to suggest Alanna will not be missed in a big way. That's why I am hoping Jones, in a Magic Johnson kind of way, can do whatever is needed to make us a strong, well-rounded team.
But, it is your analysis I'd like to see.
I would love to see the same kind of analysis for us included. Just for laughs, I'll add my own unschooled thoughts.
I think Alanna is a big loss--bigger than her points and boards (and blocks). She was the mature "glue" that held the team together. At the same time, I think we will have more overall talent next year. I think I think that we will go as far as Haley Jones takes us next year. Not that she will necessarily be the star of the team, but I think she might be key in reconstituting the team post-Alanna. Fran B. could make important contributions, but I am concerned she is too raw as a basketball player to make those contributions early on.
Who is our post player? I think Ashton P. will have a ways to go before she is a realistic threat to take over that slot. Maya D.? I just don't see it unless there is a pretty dramatic transformation over summer. Nadia F.? I hope, but, still, I haven't seen enough from anyone to suggest Alanna will not be missed in a big way. That's why I am hoping Jones, in a Magic Johnson kind of way, can do whatever is needed to make us a strong, well-rounded team.
But, it is your analysis I'd like to see.
TheFarm07,
I would love to see the same kind of analysis for us included. Just for laughs, I'll add my own unschooled thoughts.
I think Alanna is a big loss--bigger than her points and boards (and blocks). She was the mature "glue" that held the team together. At the same time, I think we will have more overall talent next year. I think I think that we will go as far as Haley Jones takes us next year. Not that she will necessarily be the star of the team, but I think she might be key in reconstituting the team post-Alanna. Fran B. could make important contributions, but I am concerned she is too raw as a basketball player to make those contributions early on.
Who is our post player? I think Ashton P. will have a ways to go before she is a realistic threat to take over that slot. Maya D.? I just don't see it unless there is a pretty dramatic transformation over summer. Nadia F.? I hope, but, still, I haven't seen enough from anyone to suggest Alanna will not be missed in a big way. That's why I am hoping Jones, in a Magic Johnson kind of way, can do whatever is needed to make us a strong, well-rounded team.
But, it is your analysis I'd like to see.
I would love to see the same kind of analysis for us included. Just for laughs, I'll add my own unschooled thoughts.
I think Alanna is a big loss--bigger than her points and boards (and blocks). She was the mature "glue" that held the team together. At the same time, I think we will have more overall talent next year. I think I think that we will go as far as Haley Jones takes us next year. Not that she will necessarily be the star of the team, but I think she might be key in reconstituting the team post-Alanna. Fran B. could make important contributions, but I am concerned she is too raw as a basketball player to make those contributions early on.
Who is our post player? I think Ashton P. will have a ways to go before she is a realistic threat to take over that slot. Maya D.? I just don't see it unless there is a pretty dramatic transformation over summer. Nadia F.? I hope, but, still, I haven't seen enough from anyone to suggest Alanna will not be missed in a big way. That's why I am hoping Jones, in a Magic Johnson kind of way, can do whatever is needed to make us a strong, well-rounded team.
But, it is your analysis I'd like to see.
04-09-2019, 03:25 PM
(04-09-2019, 02:53 PM)Card Fan in OR Wrote: TheFarm07,
I would love to see the same kind of analysis for us included. Just for laughs, I'll add my own unschooled thoughts.
I think Alanna is a big loss--bigger than her points and boards (and blocks). She was the mature "glue" that held the team together. At the same time, I think we will have more overall talent next year. I think I think that we will go as far as Haley Jones takes us next year. Not that she will necessarily be the star of the team, but I think she might be key in reconstituting the team post-Alanna. Fran B. could make important contributions, but I am concerned she is too raw as a basketball player to make those contributions early on.
Who is our post player? I think Ashton P. will have a ways to go before she is a realistic threat to take over that slot. Maya D.? I just don't see it unless there is a pretty dramatic transformation over summer. Nadia F.? I hope, but, still, I haven't seen enough from anyone to suggest Alanna will not be missed in a big way. That's why I am hoping Jones, in a Magic Johnson kind of way, can do whatever is needed to make us a strong, well-rounded team.
But, it is your analysis I'd like to see.
I agree about Alanna - it was as much her presence on the court as her production - someone to go to when they needed a score, especially down low, someone to take pressure off the others.
As to Maya's improvement - whenever I had the opportunity to see Alanna warmup (albeit very brief snippets when on tv) she would always stand under the basket and shoot balls off the little square on the backboard from both sides.She also looked for that spot whenever she drove. I don't know if Maya practices that but so very often Maya appears to just throw the ball up in the vicinity of the backboard. Bird had the same tendency
(04-09-2019, 02:53 PM)Card Fan in OR Wrote: TheFarm07,
I would love to see the same kind of analysis for us included. Just for laughs, I'll add my own unschooled thoughts.
I think Alanna is a big loss--bigger than her points and boards (and blocks). She was the mature "glue" that held the team together. At the same time, I think we will have more overall talent next year. I think I think that we will go as far as Haley Jones takes us next year. Not that she will necessarily be the star of the team, but I think she might be key in reconstituting the team post-Alanna. Fran B. could make important contributions, but I am concerned she is too raw as a basketball player to make those contributions early on.
Who is our post player? I think Ashton P. will have a ways to go before she is a realistic threat to take over that slot. Maya D.? I just don't see it unless there is a pretty dramatic transformation over summer. Nadia F.? I hope, but, still, I haven't seen enough from anyone to suggest Alanna will not be missed in a big way. That's why I am hoping Jones, in a Magic Johnson kind of way, can do whatever is needed to make us a strong, well-rounded team.
But, it is your analysis I'd like to see.
I agree about Alanna - it was as much her presence on the court as her production - someone to go to when they needed a score, especially down low, someone to take pressure off the others.
As to Maya's improvement - whenever I had the opportunity to see Alanna warmup (albeit very brief snippets when on tv) she would always stand under the basket and shoot balls off the little square on the backboard from both sides.She also looked for that spot whenever she drove. I don't know if Maya practices that but so very often Maya appears to just throw the ball up in the vicinity of the backboard. Bird had the same tendency
(04-09-2019, 03:25 PM)mbdude Wrote:At some point last year someone said that Maya Dodson had been shooting 1000 hook shots a day, and after I heard that I saw her shoot several hook shots (and make a couple). This was in the Fall, I think. She was clearly trying to improve that part of her game.(04-09-2019, 02:53 PM)Card Fan in OR Wrote: TheFarm07,
I would love to see the same kind of analysis for us included. Just for laughs, I'll add my own unschooled thoughts.
I think Alanna is a big loss--bigger than her points and boards (and blocks). She was the mature "glue" that held the team together. At the same time, I think we will have more overall talent next year. I think I think that we will go as far as Haley Jones takes us next year. Not that she will necessarily be the star of the team, but I think she might be key in reconstituting the team post-Alanna. Fran B. could make important contributions, but I am concerned she is too raw as a basketball player to make those contributions early on.
Who is our post player? I think Ashton P. will have a ways to go before she is a realistic threat to take over that slot. Maya D.? I just don't see it unless there is a pretty dramatic transformation over summer. Nadia F.? I hope, but, still, I haven't seen enough from anyone to suggest Alanna will not be missed in a big way. That's why I am hoping Jones, in a Magic Johnson kind of way, can do whatever is needed to make us a strong, well-rounded team.
But, it is your analysis I'd like to see.
I agree about Alanna - it was as much her presence on the court as her production - someone to go to when they needed a score, especially down low, someone to take pressure off the others.
As to Maya's improvement - whenever I had the opportunity to see Alanna warmup (albeit very brief snippets when on tv) she would always stand under the basket and shoot balls off the little square on the backboard from both sides.She also looked for that spot whenever she drove. I don't know if Maya practices that but so very often Maya appears to just throw the ball up in the vicinity of the backboard. Bird had the same tendency
Some of the TV commentators, before Ionescu announced she was returning to Oregon, predicted that Stanford would be the preseason #1 team next year. I'm not quite so optimistic and agree that Oregon is now the team to beat.
However, I DO expect Dodson to get better over the summer, just as Erica McCall made her biggest strides over the summer between her sophomore and junior years. How much better remains to be seen. I DO expect the incoming freshmen to be making major contributions to next year's team.
Now, I can imagine a "best case" better than what follows and also a "worse case" worse than what follows, but I think these two cases span a reasonable range of possibilities.
Best case scenario:
Dodson improves markedly, on par with McCall, and becomes a major inside scoring threat.
Lexie Hull, in the absence of injury, becomes a McPhee like star similar to what she showed at the beginning of this season.
Jones starts from the first game and proves she can play excellent defense and offense.
The other freshmen all give significant minutes as they each build toward eventual starting roles in a future year.
Carrington and Williams stay healthy and Carrington gains consistency in her senior season.
Someone else we might not expect--maybe Anna Wilson, or Alyssa Brewer, or Jenna Brown, or Nadia Fingall in her senior year--has a break out season. Lacey Hull might become just as good offensively as Lexie Hull.
Having figured out how to beat Oregon in 2019, we do it even more convincingly in 2020, win the Pac 12 regular season, and make the Final Four where we have a good shot at winning a game or even two more. With a team like this, a good draw, a down year for some of the other powerhouses, and a bit of luck, Tara could get her 3rd NC.
Worst case scenario:
Dodson never quite recovers completely and continues to be awkward around the basket.
Lexie Hull has already shown us her ceiling.
All of the freshmen have trouble adjusting to the college level. Jones is good but hampered by fouls and inconsistency. The others all need at least a season to adjust and none of them get significant minutes in the Spring, or when a game is on the line.
One or more key players struggle with injuries. Maybe Dijonai has used up her knees, much like Kaylee Johnson could not physically perform at her freshman level after her body began to deteriorate.
The current players all play about as well as they did play this year, but no better. There are no surprise breakouts from familiar players.
The year is a transition year, where Smith's loss can't be immediately replaced. We finish 3rd in the Pac 12 and lose in the Sweet 16. But the future looks bright even if 2019-20 looks a lot like 2014-15.
(04-09-2019, 03:25 PM)mbdude Wrote:At some point last year someone said that Maya Dodson had been shooting 1000 hook shots a day, and after I heard that I saw her shoot several hook shots (and make a couple). This was in the Fall, I think. She was clearly trying to improve that part of her game.(04-09-2019, 02:53 PM)Card Fan in OR Wrote: TheFarm07,
I would love to see the same kind of analysis for us included. Just for laughs, I'll add my own unschooled thoughts.
I think Alanna is a big loss--bigger than her points and boards (and blocks). She was the mature "glue" that held the team together. At the same time, I think we will have more overall talent next year. I think I think that we will go as far as Haley Jones takes us next year. Not that she will necessarily be the star of the team, but I think she might be key in reconstituting the team post-Alanna. Fran B. could make important contributions, but I am concerned she is too raw as a basketball player to make those contributions early on.
Who is our post player? I think Ashton P. will have a ways to go before she is a realistic threat to take over that slot. Maya D.? I just don't see it unless there is a pretty dramatic transformation over summer. Nadia F.? I hope, but, still, I haven't seen enough from anyone to suggest Alanna will not be missed in a big way. That's why I am hoping Jones, in a Magic Johnson kind of way, can do whatever is needed to make us a strong, well-rounded team.
But, it is your analysis I'd like to see.
I agree about Alanna - it was as much her presence on the court as her production - someone to go to when they needed a score, especially down low, someone to take pressure off the others.
As to Maya's improvement - whenever I had the opportunity to see Alanna warmup (albeit very brief snippets when on tv) she would always stand under the basket and shoot balls off the little square on the backboard from both sides.She also looked for that spot whenever she drove. I don't know if Maya practices that but so very often Maya appears to just throw the ball up in the vicinity of the backboard. Bird had the same tendency
Some of the TV commentators, before Ionescu announced she was returning to Oregon, predicted that Stanford would be the preseason #1 team next year. I'm not quite so optimistic and agree that Oregon is now the team to beat.
However, I DO expect Dodson to get better over the summer, just as Erica McCall made her biggest strides over the summer between her sophomore and junior years. How much better remains to be seen. I DO expect the incoming freshmen to be making major contributions to next year's team.
Now, I can imagine a "best case" better than what follows and also a "worse case" worse than what follows, but I think these two cases span a reasonable range of possibilities.
Best case scenario:
Dodson improves markedly, on par with McCall, and becomes a major inside scoring threat.
Lexie Hull, in the absence of injury, becomes a McPhee like star similar to what she showed at the beginning of this season.
Jones starts from the first game and proves she can play excellent defense and offense.
The other freshmen all give significant minutes as they each build toward eventual starting roles in a future year.
Carrington and Williams stay healthy and Carrington gains consistency in her senior season.
Someone else we might not expect--maybe Anna Wilson, or Alyssa Brewer, or Jenna Brown, or Nadia Fingall in her senior year--has a break out season. Lacey Hull might become just as good offensively as Lexie Hull.
Having figured out how to beat Oregon in 2019, we do it even more convincingly in 2020, win the Pac 12 regular season, and make the Final Four where we have a good shot at winning a game or even two more. With a team like this, a good draw, a down year for some of the other powerhouses, and a bit of luck, Tara could get her 3rd NC.
Worst case scenario:
Dodson never quite recovers completely and continues to be awkward around the basket.
Lexie Hull has already shown us her ceiling.
All of the freshmen have trouble adjusting to the college level. Jones is good but hampered by fouls and inconsistency. The others all need at least a season to adjust and none of them get significant minutes in the Spring, or when a game is on the line.
One or more key players struggle with injuries. Maybe Dijonai has used up her knees, much like Kaylee Johnson could not physically perform at her freshman level after her body began to deteriorate.
The current players all play about as well as they did play this year, but no better. There are no surprise breakouts from familiar players.
The year is a transition year, where Smith's loss can't be immediately replaced. We finish 3rd in the Pac 12 and lose in the Sweet 16. But the future looks bright even if 2019-20 looks a lot like 2014-15.
05-01-2020, 06:55 AM
Just posting an invite for someone to give an analysis of this shortened season and how and why it may have differed from your projections.
Just posting an invite for someone to give an analysis of this shortened season and how and why it may have differed from your projections.
(05-01-2020, 06:55 AM)JustAnotherFan Wrote: Just posting an invite for someone to give an analysis of this shortened season and how and why it may have differed from your projections.Well, JustAnother, I think the season did turn out close to my "Worst Case Scenario," and it did so for a very simple reason: Dodson, Carrington, and Jones were injured or held out for most of the season. If all three of them stay healthy and play for the whole season, I think we would have wound up squarely in between my worst case and best case, probably a little closer to the best case scenario.
Fingall did not markedly improve over prior seasons, and Dodson (when she finally played) looked inconsistent. For a game or two she looked like a star, and then for a game or two her offense would disappear. Nor did Jerome have a break out year. So our fear going into the season was about the bigs and replacing Smith, and that fear was somewhat borne out.
Also consider that Tara's teams usually play their best at the end of a season, not the beginning. This makes Stanford quite different from teams which play more instinctive styles. And of course the end of the season was lopped off, depriving us the chance to see how it all might have turned out.
Of the injuries, the lack of Carrington and Jones made our offense one dimensional at the end--not grossly so--but enough so to give opposing defenses an edge they otherwise would have lacked. We had no chance against the quick Oregon zone without them.
As far as the development of the freshmen--Jones looked quite good before she was injured but she was not yet dominant. I think she has more room to grow. Precthel was the biggest surprise. She was much more offensive than I expected, but further behind on defense and pretty good but not as dominant as she can probably become with rebounding. Belibi is indeed a diamond in the rough and still has a lot to learn. She could possibly become a dominant player if she really wants to emphasize basketball and grow from year to year. Jump showed she could be competent on defense against average college players but against some teams with two quick slashing guards she is going to have problems. So all of last year's freshmen showed us great talent, and all four need to improve quite a bit. Normally the freshman to sophomore year is where that happens--but Covid might derail all of that.
(05-01-2020, 06:55 AM)JustAnotherFan Wrote: Just posting an invite for someone to give an analysis of this shortened season and how and why it may have differed from your projections.Well, JustAnother, I think the season did turn out close to my "Worst Case Scenario," and it did so for a very simple reason: Dodson, Carrington, and Jones were injured or held out for most of the season. If all three of them stay healthy and play for the whole season, I think we would have wound up squarely in between my worst case and best case, probably a little closer to the best case scenario.
Fingall did not markedly improve over prior seasons, and Dodson (when she finally played) looked inconsistent. For a game or two she looked like a star, and then for a game or two her offense would disappear. Nor did Jerome have a break out year. So our fear going into the season was about the bigs and replacing Smith, and that fear was somewhat borne out.
Also consider that Tara's teams usually play their best at the end of a season, not the beginning. This makes Stanford quite different from teams which play more instinctive styles. And of course the end of the season was lopped off, depriving us the chance to see how it all might have turned out.
Of the injuries, the lack of Carrington and Jones made our offense one dimensional at the end--not grossly so--but enough so to give opposing defenses an edge they otherwise would have lacked. We had no chance against the quick Oregon zone without them.
As far as the development of the freshmen--Jones looked quite good before she was injured but she was not yet dominant. I think she has more room to grow. Precthel was the biggest surprise. She was much more offensive than I expected, but further behind on defense and pretty good but not as dominant as she can probably become with rebounding. Belibi is indeed a diamond in the rough and still has a lot to learn. She could possibly become a dominant player if she really wants to emphasize basketball and grow from year to year. Jump showed she could be competent on defense against average college players but against some teams with two quick slashing guards she is going to have problems. So all of last year's freshmen showed us great talent, and all four need to improve quite a bit. Normally the freshman to sophomore year is where that happens--but Covid might derail all of that.
05-01-2020, 10:45 AM
This season was way beyond the worst case scenario. We didn't even play in the NCAA tournament!
BC
BC
This season was way beyond the worst case scenario. We didn't even play in the NCAA tournament!
BC
BC
05-01-2020, 01:32 PM
(05-01-2020, 12:09 PM)JustAnotherFan Wrote:(05-01-2020, 10:45 AM)BostonCard Wrote: This season was way beyond the worst case scenario. We didn't even play in the NCAA tournament!
BC
LOL, fair.
True, but neither did anyone else, so we can't be dinged for having missed an NCAA tournament, or can we?? Well, at least we did as well as everyone else did.
(05-01-2020, 12:09 PM)JustAnotherFan Wrote:(05-01-2020, 10:45 AM)BostonCard Wrote: This season was way beyond the worst case scenario. We didn't even play in the NCAA tournament!
BC
LOL, fair.
True, but neither did anyone else, so we can't be dinged for having missed an NCAA tournament, or can we?? Well, at least we did as well as everyone else did.
05-01-2020, 04:22 PM
My point was that in the realm of worst case scenarios, a global pandemic infecting a million people and killing nearly 250,000 (and counting) causing the NCAA tournament to be cancelled was orders of magnitude worse than whatever the worst case scenario any of us imagined at the start of the season.
BC
BC
My point was that in the realm of worst case scenarios, a global pandemic infecting a million people and killing nearly 250,000 (and counting) causing the NCAA tournament to be cancelled was orders of magnitude worse than whatever the worst case scenario any of us imagined at the start of the season.
BC
BC
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