01-05-2020, 06:10 PM
Outside Topic NFL Playoffs
(01-05-2020, 02:29 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: Man, coin flips deciding playoff games stink, too.
I completely agree. The college overtime rule is much better, IMO. It took me a while to get used to it, but I like it now. It gives both teams a fair chance. But I suppose the NFL is too entrenched in its ways to consider changing its rule.
(01-05-2020, 02:29 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: Man, coin flips deciding playoff games stink, too.
I completely agree. The college overtime rule is much better, IMO. It took me a while to get used to it, but I like it now. It gives both teams a fair chance. But I suppose the NFL is too entrenched in its ways to consider changing its rule.
01-05-2020, 06:33 PM
Niners opened as 7pt favorites vs. Minnesota. I will be surprised if they don’t win by 10+.
Niners are getting Dee Ford, Kwon Alexander, and Jaquiski Tartt back for that game, 3/11 starters on defense. When they were healthy, the Niners were on pace to have the best pass defense in 40 seasons. They go from being good to elite on defense when those three are playing.
I hate to say it, but I think we get Seahawks - Niners III in NFCCG. I say hate because it is not fun playing Russell Wilson, even though the Niners have demonstrated they are the slightly better team over their two previous tilts this season.
Over on the AFC side, the Texans beat the Chiefs in regular season and the Chiefs beat the Ravens.
I’m going with a Kansas City at Baltimore AFCCG.
Niners are getting Dee Ford, Kwon Alexander, and Jaquiski Tartt back for that game, 3/11 starters on defense. When they were healthy, the Niners were on pace to have the best pass defense in 40 seasons. They go from being good to elite on defense when those three are playing.
I hate to say it, but I think we get Seahawks - Niners III in NFCCG. I say hate because it is not fun playing Russell Wilson, even though the Niners have demonstrated they are the slightly better team over their two previous tilts this season.
Over on the AFC side, the Texans beat the Chiefs in regular season and the Chiefs beat the Ravens.
I’m going with a Kansas City at Baltimore AFCCG.
Niners opened as 7pt favorites vs. Minnesota. I will be surprised if they don’t win by 10+.
Niners are getting Dee Ford, Kwon Alexander, and Jaquiski Tartt back for that game, 3/11 starters on defense. When they were healthy, the Niners were on pace to have the best pass defense in 40 seasons. They go from being good to elite on defense when those three are playing.
I hate to say it, but I think we get Seahawks - Niners III in NFCCG. I say hate because it is not fun playing Russell Wilson, even though the Niners have demonstrated they are the slightly better team over their two previous tilts this season.
Over on the AFC side, the Texans beat the Chiefs in regular season and the Chiefs beat the Ravens.
I’m going with a Kansas City at Baltimore AFCCG.
Niners are getting Dee Ford, Kwon Alexander, and Jaquiski Tartt back for that game, 3/11 starters on defense. When they were healthy, the Niners were on pace to have the best pass defense in 40 seasons. They go from being good to elite on defense when those three are playing.
I hate to say it, but I think we get Seahawks - Niners III in NFCCG. I say hate because it is not fun playing Russell Wilson, even though the Niners have demonstrated they are the slightly better team over their two previous tilts this season.
Over on the AFC side, the Texans beat the Chiefs in regular season and the Chiefs beat the Ravens.
I’m going with a Kansas City at Baltimore AFCCG.
01-05-2020, 06:38 PM
(01-05-2020, 06:32 PM)terry Wrote:(01-05-2020, 02:29 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: Man, coin flips deciding playoff games stink, too.
I completely agree. The college overtime rule is much better, IMO. It took me a while to get used to it, but I like it now. It gives both teams a fair chance. But I suppose the NFL is too entrenched in its ways to consider changing its rule.
My preference is that overtime picks up where the fourth quarter leaves off. Thus there is no need for a coin flip to decide anything.
BC
(01-05-2020, 06:32 PM)terry Wrote:(01-05-2020, 02:29 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: Man, coin flips deciding playoff games stink, too.
I completely agree. The college overtime rule is much better, IMO. It took me a while to get used to it, but I like it now. It gives both teams a fair chance. But I suppose the NFL is too entrenched in its ways to consider changing its rule.
My preference is that overtime picks up where the fourth quarter leaves off. Thus there is no need for a coin flip to decide anything.
BC
The problem is TV.
The college OT can create coverage issues and I would guess advertising rate challenges in the OT.
As the percentage of successful drives climbs closer to 100% it would be nice for the coin flip to be less impactful.
It would be great to start at the 35 or 40 as the 25 is a bit too close for the pros.
And require teams to go for 2 even in the first OT if running long a concern for the NFLs grand plan for each Sunday.
The college OT can create coverage issues and I would guess advertising rate challenges in the OT.
As the percentage of successful drives climbs closer to 100% it would be nice for the coin flip to be less impactful.
It would be great to start at the 35 or 40 as the 25 is a bit too close for the pros.
And require teams to go for 2 even in the first OT if running long a concern for the NFLs grand plan for each Sunday.
The problem is TV.
The college OT can create coverage issues and I would guess advertising rate challenges in the OT.
As the percentage of successful drives climbs closer to 100% it would be nice for the coin flip to be less impactful.
It would be great to start at the 35 or 40 as the 25 is a bit too close for the pros.
And require teams to go for 2 even in the first OT if running long a concern for the NFLs grand plan for each Sunday.
The college OT can create coverage issues and I would guess advertising rate challenges in the OT.
As the percentage of successful drives climbs closer to 100% it would be nice for the coin flip to be less impactful.
It would be great to start at the 35 or 40 as the 25 is a bit too close for the pros.
And require teams to go for 2 even in the first OT if running long a concern for the NFLs grand plan for each Sunday.
01-05-2020, 06:53 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-05-2020, 07:09 PM by baymeadows3408.)
(01-05-2020, 06:38 PM)BostonCard Wrote:(01-05-2020, 06:32 PM)terry Wrote:(01-05-2020, 02:29 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: Man, coin flips deciding playoff games stink, too.
I completely agree. The college overtime rule is much better, IMO. It took me a while to get used to it, but I like it now. It gives both teams a fair chance. But I suppose the NFL is too entrenched in its ways to consider changing its rule.
My preference is that overtime picks up where the fourth quarter leaves off. Thus there is no need for a coin flip to decide anything.
BC
In the playoffs, perhaps the NFL should consider playing out an entire 15-minute period. I suppose that there could be concerns about player fatigue and injuries, though. And what would you do if the two teams remained tied at the end of the first overtime? Or they can just use the college system, which gives both teams an equal number of possessions.
Hmm, come to think of it, has anybody ever conducted a study to quantify any advantage that belongs to the team that wins the coin toss at the beginning of overtime in college football? The team that wins the toss always elects to go on defense first, with the logic being that it's preferable to know exactly what you need to do to win the game or force a second overtime. I wonder if there are any data that prove this logic.
(01-05-2020, 06:53 PM)baymeadows3408 Wrote:(01-05-2020, 06:38 PM)BostonCard Wrote:(01-05-2020, 06:32 PM)terry Wrote:(01-05-2020, 02:29 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: Man, coin flips deciding playoff games stink, too.
I completely agree. The college overtime rule is much better, IMO. It took me a while to get used to it, but I like it now. It gives both teams a fair chance. But I suppose the NFL is too entrenched in its ways to consider changing its rule.
My preference is that overtime picks up where the fourth quarter leaves off. Thus there is no need for a coin flip to decide anything.
BC
In the playoffs, perhaps the NFL should consider playing out an entire 15-minute period. I suppose that there could be concerns about player fatigue and injuries, though. And what would you do if the two teams remained tied at the end of the first overtime? Or they can just use the college system, which gives both teams an equal number of possessions.
Hmm, come to think of it, has anybody ever conducted a study to quantify any advantage that belongs to the team that wins the coin toss at the beginning of overtime in college football? The team that wins the toss always elects to go on defense first, with the logic being that it's preferable to know exactly what you need to do to win the game or force a second overtime. I wonder if there are any data that prove this logic.
Answering my own question:
https://www.theringer.com/2017/2/6/16042...316a6f8e3c
"A study of the first 10 years of college football’s overtime rules found that teams that went second won 54.9 percent of the time. Another study found that teams that start on defense had a 52.1 percent win probability, smaller than the NFL’s but still significant. And this Redditor tabulated that teams going second in overtime had won 331 of 602 overtime games, almost 55 percent."
Formerly posted on TOS as YCF, mostly a lurker now
01-05-2020, 06:53 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-05-2020, 07:09 PM by baymeadows3408.)
(01-05-2020, 06:38 PM)BostonCard Wrote:(01-05-2020, 06:32 PM)terry Wrote:(01-05-2020, 02:29 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: Man, coin flips deciding playoff games stink, too.
I completely agree. The college overtime rule is much better, IMO. It took me a while to get used to it, but I like it now. It gives both teams a fair chance. But I suppose the NFL is too entrenched in its ways to consider changing its rule.
My preference is that overtime picks up where the fourth quarter leaves off. Thus there is no need for a coin flip to decide anything.
BC
In the playoffs, perhaps the NFL should consider playing out an entire 15-minute period. I suppose that there could be concerns about player fatigue and injuries, though. And what would you do if the two teams remained tied at the end of the first overtime? Or they can just use the college system, which gives both teams an equal number of possessions.
Hmm, come to think of it, has anybody ever conducted a study to quantify any advantage that belongs to the team that wins the coin toss at the beginning of overtime in college football? The team that wins the toss always elects to go on defense first, with the logic being that it's preferable to know exactly what you need to do to win the game or force a second overtime. I wonder if there are any data that prove this logic.
(01-05-2020, 06:53 PM)baymeadows3408 Wrote:(01-05-2020, 06:38 PM)BostonCard Wrote:(01-05-2020, 06:32 PM)terry Wrote:(01-05-2020, 02:29 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: Man, coin flips deciding playoff games stink, too.
I completely agree. The college overtime rule is much better, IMO. It took me a while to get used to it, but I like it now. It gives both teams a fair chance. But I suppose the NFL is too entrenched in its ways to consider changing its rule.
My preference is that overtime picks up where the fourth quarter leaves off. Thus there is no need for a coin flip to decide anything.
BC
In the playoffs, perhaps the NFL should consider playing out an entire 15-minute period. I suppose that there could be concerns about player fatigue and injuries, though. And what would you do if the two teams remained tied at the end of the first overtime? Or they can just use the college system, which gives both teams an equal number of possessions.
Hmm, come to think of it, has anybody ever conducted a study to quantify any advantage that belongs to the team that wins the coin toss at the beginning of overtime in college football? The team that wins the toss always elects to go on defense first, with the logic being that it's preferable to know exactly what you need to do to win the game or force a second overtime. I wonder if there are any data that prove this logic.
Answering my own question:
https://www.theringer.com/2017/2/6/16042...316a6f8e3c
"A study of the first 10 years of college football’s overtime rules found that teams that went second won 54.9 percent of the time. Another study found that teams that start on defense had a 52.1 percent win probability, smaller than the NFL’s but still significant. And this Redditor tabulated that teams going second in overtime had won 331 of 602 overtime games, almost 55 percent."
Formerly posted on TOS as YCF, mostly a lurker now
01-05-2020, 07:31 PM
(01-05-2020, 06:33 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Niners opened as 7pt favorites vs. Minnesota. I will be surprised if they don’t win by 10+.
Niners are getting Dee Ford, Kwon Alexander, and Jaquiski Tartt back for that game, 3/11 starters on defense. When they were healthy, the Niners were on pace to have the best pass defense in 40 seasons. They go from being good to elite on defense when those three are playing.
I hate to say it, but I think we get Seahawks - Niners III in NFCCG. I say hate because it is not fun playing Russell Wilson, even though the Niners have demonstrated they are the slightly better team over their two previous tilts this season.
Over on the AFC side, the Texans beat the Chiefs in regular season and the Chiefs beat the Ravens.
I’m going with a Kansas City at Baltimore AFCCG.
Going into today's game, would you confident that the Saints would win by 10+ points? So many of the Talking Heads picked New Orleans in a rout (and I shared that belief). That's why you play the games.
Also, recall when the 'Niners' two starting OTs returned after a layoff in the game against Seattle at Levi's. They played poorly, and Jimmy G. was terrorized by Seattle's DL (particularly Clowney). No guarantees that Dee Ford, Tartt, and Alexander will return and immediately play at their pre-injury levels. While hoping that's the case, I find it quite unlikely.
(01-05-2020, 06:33 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Niners opened as 7pt favorites vs. Minnesota. I will be surprised if they don’t win by 10+.
Niners are getting Dee Ford, Kwon Alexander, and Jaquiski Tartt back for that game, 3/11 starters on defense. When they were healthy, the Niners were on pace to have the best pass defense in 40 seasons. They go from being good to elite on defense when those three are playing.
I hate to say it, but I think we get Seahawks - Niners III in NFCCG. I say hate because it is not fun playing Russell Wilson, even though the Niners have demonstrated they are the slightly better team over their two previous tilts this season.
Over on the AFC side, the Texans beat the Chiefs in regular season and the Chiefs beat the Ravens.
I’m going with a Kansas City at Baltimore AFCCG.
Going into today's game, would you confident that the Saints would win by 10+ points? So many of the Talking Heads picked New Orleans in a rout (and I shared that belief). That's why you play the games.
Also, recall when the 'Niners' two starting OTs returned after a layoff in the game against Seattle at Levi's. They played poorly, and Jimmy G. was terrorized by Seattle's DL (particularly Clowney). No guarantees that Dee Ford, Tartt, and Alexander will return and immediately play at their pre-injury levels. While hoping that's the case, I find it quite unlikely.
01-05-2020, 08:11 PM
(01-05-2020, 07:31 PM)teejers1 Wrote:(01-05-2020, 06:33 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Niners opened as 7pt favorites vs. Minnesota. I will be surprised if they don’t win by 10+.
Niners are getting Dee Ford, Kwon Alexander, and Jaquiski Tartt back for that game, 3/11 starters on defense. When they were healthy, the Niners were on pace to have the best pass defense in 40 seasons. They go from being good to elite on defense when those three are playing.
I hate to say it, but I think we get Seahawks - Niners III in NFCCG. I say hate because it is not fun playing Russell Wilson, even though the Niners have demonstrated they are the slightly better team over their two previous tilts this season.
Over on the AFC side, the Texans beat the Chiefs in regular season and the Chiefs beat the Ravens.
I’m going with a Kansas City at Baltimore AFCCG.
Going into today's game, would you confident that the Saints would win by 10+ points? So many of the Talking Heads picked New Orleans in a rout (and I shared that belief). That's why you play the games.
Also, recall when the 'Niners' two starting OTs returned after a layoff in the game against Seattle at Levi's. They played poorly, and Jimmy G. was terrorized by Seattle's DL (particularly Clowney). No guarantees that Dee Ford, Tartt, and Alexander will return and immediately play at their pre-injury levels. While hoping that's the case, I find it quite unlikely.
My picks this weekend were: Houston, Tennessee, New Orleans, Seattle
I didn’t expect any blowouts. My confidence was:
1. Houston
2. Seattle
3. New Orleans
4. Tennessee
I would be shocked if Ford, Tartt, and Alexander don’t make brobdingnagian impacts, assuming they are in fact healthy, in part because their bodies have all had a month off to heal up. Joe Staley admitted he wasn’t really ready for that Seattle game to which you refer.
(01-05-2020, 07:31 PM)teejers1 Wrote:(01-05-2020, 06:33 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Niners opened as 7pt favorites vs. Minnesota. I will be surprised if they don’t win by 10+.
Niners are getting Dee Ford, Kwon Alexander, and Jaquiski Tartt back for that game, 3/11 starters on defense. When they were healthy, the Niners were on pace to have the best pass defense in 40 seasons. They go from being good to elite on defense when those three are playing.
I hate to say it, but I think we get Seahawks - Niners III in NFCCG. I say hate because it is not fun playing Russell Wilson, even though the Niners have demonstrated they are the slightly better team over their two previous tilts this season.
Over on the AFC side, the Texans beat the Chiefs in regular season and the Chiefs beat the Ravens.
I’m going with a Kansas City at Baltimore AFCCG.
Going into today's game, would you confident that the Saints would win by 10+ points? So many of the Talking Heads picked New Orleans in a rout (and I shared that belief). That's why you play the games.
Also, recall when the 'Niners' two starting OTs returned after a layoff in the game against Seattle at Levi's. They played poorly, and Jimmy G. was terrorized by Seattle's DL (particularly Clowney). No guarantees that Dee Ford, Tartt, and Alexander will return and immediately play at their pre-injury levels. While hoping that's the case, I find it quite unlikely.
My picks this weekend were: Houston, Tennessee, New Orleans, Seattle
I didn’t expect any blowouts. My confidence was:
1. Houston
2. Seattle
3. New Orleans
4. Tennessee
I would be shocked if Ford, Tartt, and Alexander don’t make brobdingnagian impacts, assuming they are in fact healthy, in part because their bodies have all had a month off to heal up. Joe Staley admitted he wasn’t really ready for that Seattle game to which you refer.
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