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OK, here's what we have, based on the prior committee rankings
1) Alabama (12-1): win
2) Oregon (12-1): win
3) TCU (11-1): win
4) Florida State (12-0): tied, will stay in top-11 even with a loss
5) tOSU (11-1): winning big
6) Baylor (10-1): winning
7) Arizona (10-3): Lost bad
8) Michigan State (10-2): Did not play, will likely jump Arizona
9) Kansas State (9-2): Losing to Baylor, so I doubt Arizona will fall further than them.
10) Georgia Tech (10-2): tied with Florida State. With a win, will jump Arizona, with a close loss, Arizona might fall further than Tech
11) Ole Miss (9-3): Did not play. Will a 9-3 Ole Miss rank ahead of a 10-3 Arizona? They have a win over Alabama, but Arizona has a win over Oregon (they also have a win over Mississippi St,). They also have a 30-0 loss to Arkansas that's worse than Arizona's loss to Oregon given that Arkansas ended 2-6 in SEC play.
12) Wisconsin (10-2): losing big. No way does Arizona fall below them
13) Georgia (9-3): Best win is over #23 Missouri, worst loss is 38-20 to Florida, which is worse than Arizona's loss. I doubt they jump over Arizona
14) UCLA (9-3): They also ended their season with a bad loss, LOL.
15) Missouri (10-3): Lost to Alabama, not going to jump anyone
16) ASU (9-3): Lost last regular season game to Arizona
It is hard to see enough teams jumping over Arizona to leave it out of a New Years Bowl. Baylor beating Kansas State and Wisconsin losing badly, if they hold up, will likely ensure Arizona stays in the top-11.
BC