[CTcard]

[quote author=CTcard link=topic=11688.msg114029#msg114029 date=1425399378]
[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=11688.msg113986#msg113986 date=1425327284]
We would need to win the Pac-12 championship, ...

Why so?

Doesn't it depend at least a little on what the other teams in the 12-20 vicinity do?
[/quote]

To a slight extent.  But it would be hard to see how we would vault over other teams, even teams that lose in their conference tourneys, if we lose in our tourney as well.  Maybe if some of those teams are upset early and lose to bad teams, and we make it to the finals... but I think it is reasonable to speculate that barring surprises, we won't host unless we win the Pac-12 tourney.

BC
[/quote]

If Creme is correct that Stanford is at #17 then there wouldn't be much vaulting to do.
I have no idea if Creme is very good at this. But whoever really is #17 at the moment has a reasonable chance of moving up to #16.

And of course it is reasonable to speculate that we won't host, in fact it seems most probable outcome to me, but a real evaluation involves looking at all the contenders. I could at least imagine that wins over UCLA, ASU, and a loss to OSU is better than somebody 14-16 (like say Cal - Creme has as a #4) might do. 

[CTcard]

[quote author=CTcard link=topic=11688.msg114029#msg114029 date=1425399378]
[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=11688.msg113986#msg113986 date=1425327284]
We would need to win the Pac-12 championship, ...

Why so?

Doesn't it depend at least a little on what the other teams in the 12-20 vicinity do?
[/quote]

To a slight extent.  But it would be hard to see how we would vault over other teams, even teams that lose in their conference tourneys, if we lose in our tourney as well.  Maybe if some of those teams are upset early and lose to bad teams, and we make it to the finals... but I think it is reasonable to speculate that barring surprises, we won't host unless we win the Pac-12 tourney.

BC
[/quote]

If Creme is correct that Stanford is at #17 then there wouldn't be much vaulting to do.
I have no idea if Creme is very good at this. But whoever really is #17 at the moment has a reasonable chance of moving up to #16.

And of course it is reasonable to speculate that we won't host, in fact it seems most probable outcome to me, but a real evaluation involves looking at all the contenders. I could at least imagine that wins over UCLA, ASU, and a loss to OSU is better than somebody 14-16 (like say Cal - Creme has as a #4) might do.