[VFRing98]

One thing I don't really understand about the aversion to kicking it OOB is that the 35 isn't that great of a starting position. That's about where they get it after a squib, and the average should be comparable to what a good returner can do, but with much lower variance. Is it that bad of an idea?

I think there are two things that come into play. From my vantage point in the stands of BG (was that '97?), I felt like it could hurt the team's psyche to essentially concede that the other team is better on special teams. You're telling your players that they can't win that battle, and I can see how that could impact a team's mentality. But if you get them to buy into the math, perhaps they get over it. But 15 yards (when comapred to starting on the 20 which I think is in the minds of most football players based on the touchback) is decent field position. Assuming you kick off ~5 times agaime, you're giving up 75 yards on the game. THat's going to turn into real points.

Of course, if you're going against a great returner, there's a chance you give up even more in field position and mental edge when they break a return to your 40 or 30 yard line (or down to the 5 yard line as C Mac did last week).

There was some statistical analysis done recently on the effect of starting field position on actual points scored.The reason for the study was to determine whether going for it on 4th down made sense. If I recall correctly, the conclusion was go for it, because the starting field position doesn't make a significant impact on points scored, except at the extremes. So according to this, starting at the 25 or 35 shouldn't matter and you should kick out of bounds.

Of course, this comment would be bolstered if I could find the reference...

[VFRing98]

One thing I don't really understand about the aversion to kicking it OOB is that the 35 isn't that great of a starting position. That's about where they get it after a squib, and the average should be comparable to what a good returner can do, but with much lower variance. Is it that bad of an idea?

I think there are two things that come into play. From my vantage point in the stands of BG (was that '97?), I felt like it could hurt the team's psyche to essentially concede that the other team is better on special teams. You're telling your players that they can't win that battle, and I can see how that could impact a team's mentality. But if you get them to buy into the math, perhaps they get over it. But 15 yards (when comapred to starting on the 20 which I think is in the minds of most football players based on the touchback) is decent field position. Assuming you kick off ~5 times agaime, you're giving up 75 yards on the game. THat's going to turn into real points.

Of course, if you're going against a great returner, there's a chance you give up even more in field position and mental edge when they break a return to your 40 or 30 yard line (or down to the 5 yard line as C Mac did last week).

There was some statistical analysis done recently on the effect of starting field position on actual points scored.The reason for the study was to determine whether going for it on 4th down made sense. If I recall correctly, the conclusion was go for it, because the starting field position doesn't make a significant impact on points scored, except at the extremes. So according to this, starting at the 25 or 35 shouldn't matter and you should kick out of bounds.

Of course, this comment would be bolstered if I could find the reference...