[BostonCard]

[quote author=washingtonismoney link=topic=13569.msg140431#msg140431 date=1447018518]
There's approximately a 0% chance an undefeated Power 5 conference team misses out on the playoff.

Agree 100%.  And therein lies the problem.

If an undefeated Big 12 team makes it through they will jump ND or Stanford. The bulk of their schedule is back loaded by design, so that's where their SOS come in. Remember the Pac 12 OOC results have not exactly been stellar this year. Now that Clemson won, we need a one loss Big 12 or Big 10 champion. Cross your fingers.

Their SOS will get better by beating other overrated Big 12 teams who also haven't beaten a team with a winning record to date.
[/quote]

In the end, everyone winds up beating up on losing teams.  The Big 12 is highly segregated; there are 4 good teams (Baylor, Oklahoma, OK St., and TCU), three mediocre teams (Texas, Texas Tech and Iowa State), and three bad teams (West Virginia, Kansas State, and Kansas, probably the worst Power 5 team in the country).  If one of the four good teams goes 3-0 against the others, it is fair to say that that team will be worthy of a playoff, assuming it doesn't have a stumble elsewhere (Oklahoma).  If they beat up on one another, then it becomes hard to determine who is the best team, and we assume all of them are good but not great.  Our best bet would be for TCU and Oklahoma (who each already have a loss) to beat up on the others.  But if either Baylor or Oklahoma State goes undefeated, it will lay claim to a playoff spot on the basis of having beaten three teams with 9 or 10 wins.

BC

[BostonCard]

[quote author=washingtonismoney link=topic=13569.msg140431#msg140431 date=1447018518]
There's approximately a 0% chance an undefeated Power 5 conference team misses out on the playoff.

Agree 100%.  And therein lies the problem.

If an undefeated Big 12 team makes it through they will jump ND or Stanford. The bulk of their schedule is back loaded by design, so that's where their SOS come in. Remember the Pac 12 OOC results have not exactly been stellar this year. Now that Clemson won, we need a one loss Big 12 or Big 10 champion. Cross your fingers.

Their SOS will get better by beating other overrated Big 12 teams who also haven't beaten a team with a winning record to date.
[/quote]

In the end, everyone winds up beating up on losing teams.  The Big 12 is highly segregated; there are 4 good teams (Baylor, Oklahoma, OK St., and TCU), three mediocre teams (Texas, Texas Tech and Iowa State), and three bad teams (West Virginia, Kansas State, and Kansas, probably the worst Power 5 team in the country).  If one of the four good teams goes 3-0 against the others, it is fair to say that that team will be worthy of a playoff, assuming it doesn't have a stumble elsewhere (Oklahoma).  If they beat up on one another, then it becomes hard to determine who is the best team, and we assume all of them are good but not great.  Our best bet would be for TCU and Oklahoma (who each already have a loss) to beat up on the others.  But if either Baylor or Oklahoma State goes undefeated, it will lay claim to a playoff spot on the basis of having beaten three teams with 9 or 10 wins.

BC