[stupac2]

Yeah this is one case where I wouldn't read too much into Vegas odds. There's just not enough public information out there about what the voters are thinking. You could, if you wanted to, try to do the old Stiffarmtrophy thing and go through every Voldemort voter's public statements and try to handicap it, or look at news coverage and try to figure out some kind of favorability rating, but I'm not sure any of those things will be accurate at all. It's also not clear to me how active this market is, which matters for the sort of "wisdom of the crowds" Vegas lines usually imply.

I think it'll be close, and I think McCaffrey has a real chance, but it does seem like Henry's probably the favorite.

[stupac2]

Yeah this is one case where I wouldn't read too much into Vegas odds. There's just not enough public information out there about what the voters are thinking. You could, if you wanted to, try to do the old Stiffarmtrophy thing and go through every Voldemort voter's public statements and try to handicap it, or look at news coverage and try to figure out some kind of favorability rating, but I'm not sure any of those things will be accurate at all. It's also not clear to me how active this market is, which matters for the sort of "wisdom of the crowds" Vegas lines usually imply.

I think it'll be close, and I think McCaffrey has a real chance, but it does seem like Henry's probably the favorite.