[yvonne]

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football...ce=twitter

EDIT: Connelly projects our PPG margin will decrease about 4 points next year, which would put us at +11 or so -- basically similar to the 2012 and '14 teams. So around 8 wins, I'd guess.

You'd have to compare the scores against each score from last year, together with his estimation of their projected change in PPG to get a handle on the likely number of wins he's projecting. However, inexperience is really a factor through about half the season only.

Also, the statistics have no way to factor in the quality and the impact of a player. I'm more sanguine about losses on defense than I am about losing an Outland trophy-winning blocker and the winningest quarterback in school history, for example.

[yvonne]

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football...ce=twitter

EDIT: Connelly projects our PPG margin will decrease about 4 points next year, which would put us at +11 or so -- basically similar to the 2012 and '14 teams. So around 8 wins, I'd guess.

You'd have to compare the scores against each score from last year, together with his estimation of their projected change in PPG to get a handle on the likely number of wins he's projecting. However, inexperience is really a factor through about half the season only.

Also, the statistics have no way to factor in the quality and the impact of a player. I'm more sanguine about losses on defense than I am about losing an Outland trophy-winning blocker and the winningest quarterback in school history, for example.