[CTcard]

... McCaffrey's poor games against Washington and Washington State have been forgotten in the glow of 200 yard efforts against some of the worst defenses in the NCAA.

I wouldn't read too much into those two games.

They were McCaffrey's worst two games. To some extent this was because of the number of times he touched the ball, which in turn was at least partly because we fell so far behind so quickly we went into pass all the time mode. In both games he averaged over 4 yds/carry (4.08 vs UW, 4.38 vs WSU), which isn't great but not terrible for your worst games of the year. In 2015, for example, he averaged 2.90 yds/carry vs UCF, 3.48 vs und, and only 4.42 vs U$C game #1 - a game he was generally viewed as having played well. Fournette had worse down games than that, so did Dalvin Cook.

On the other hand, the other issue in those two games, both in how he performed and the number of times he touched the ball, was that he was not fully healthy - and he missed the next game vs und. One of the reasons McCaffrey is viewed as "only" the third RB for the NFL draft is because he is somewhat smaller than a lot of guys, most particularly Fournette (235 pounds) and even Dalvin Cook (who's a little shorter and about 10-15 pounds heavier). That size issue translates into worries about how he'll hold up - and having a track record of injury doesn't help on that score.

Assuming he's not injured, I think he's doing damage to his draft status by refusing to play against a very poor run defense.  After his near Hiesman run last year, he was projected to be a mid-to-late first round pick.  Other posters here tell me he's now projected to be a second round pick. 

One thing for sure, McCaffrey has as good a set of advisors as anyone to know (and the ability to ask relevant people in the league) whether this move will hurt his draft stock or not. Of course draft position is determined by decisions of individual people with all their own beliefs and biases, so one can never really determine such a thing. But, I see no reason to doubt that McCaffrey and his folks cannot best evaluate the risk/reward of this decision for his draft position. The issues surrounding whether this was a "proper" move don't really rest on that.

[As an added note, the fact that McCaffrey's projected draft status hasn't really changed from the end of last season until now probably means it's pretty set, though that statement comes with the rather large caveat that the people making these projections don't know anything and the people who know something either don't talk or lie.]

[CTcard]

... McCaffrey's poor games against Washington and Washington State have been forgotten in the glow of 200 yard efforts against some of the worst defenses in the NCAA.

I wouldn't read too much into those two games.

They were McCaffrey's worst two games. To some extent this was because of the number of times he touched the ball, which in turn was at least partly because we fell so far behind so quickly we went into pass all the time mode. In both games he averaged over 4 yds/carry (4.08 vs UW, 4.38 vs WSU), which isn't great but not terrible for your worst games of the year. In 2015, for example, he averaged 2.90 yds/carry vs UCF, 3.48 vs und, and only 4.42 vs U$C game #1 - a game he was generally viewed as having played well. Fournette had worse down games than that, so did Dalvin Cook.

On the other hand, the other issue in those two games, both in how he performed and the number of times he touched the ball, was that he was not fully healthy - and he missed the next game vs und. One of the reasons McCaffrey is viewed as "only" the third RB for the NFL draft is because he is somewhat smaller than a lot of guys, most particularly Fournette (235 pounds) and even Dalvin Cook (who's a little shorter and about 10-15 pounds heavier). That size issue translates into worries about how he'll hold up - and having a track record of injury doesn't help on that score.

Assuming he's not injured, I think he's doing damage to his draft status by refusing to play against a very poor run defense.  After his near Hiesman run last year, he was projected to be a mid-to-late first round pick.  Other posters here tell me he's now projected to be a second round pick. 

One thing for sure, McCaffrey has as good a set of advisors as anyone to know (and the ability to ask relevant people in the league) whether this move will hurt his draft stock or not. Of course draft position is determined by decisions of individual people with all their own beliefs and biases, so one can never really determine such a thing. But, I see no reason to doubt that McCaffrey and his folks cannot best evaluate the risk/reward of this decision for his draft position. The issues surrounding whether this was a "proper" move don't really rest on that.

[As an added note, the fact that McCaffrey's projected draft status hasn't really changed from the end of last season until now probably means it's pretty set, though that statement comes with the rather large caveat that the people making these projections don't know anything and the people who know something either don't talk or lie.]