03-17-2017, 02:25 AM
50 Free
Some swimmers are relay swimmers; some swimmers do best in individual swims.
Perhaps Simone is someone that swims the individual races better. Her lead-off 50 Free on the 200 Free Relay was 0.3 seconds slower than her individual race. (By the way, she did not set an American record, but it was a NCAA record.)
She didn't even finish first of the lead-off swimmers. If she'd swum her relay time in the individual event, she'd have been 4th. If she'd swum her individual time on the relay, we'd have been 0.02 behind Cal.
Lia, on the other hand, had a slow relay exchange, but swam within 0.01 of what she swam in the B finals of the 50 Free (after accounting for reaction times). Ally Howe had a really good split (21.29), which after accounting for reaction time, would have been just on the bubble of getting into the A final of the 50 free.
Both Simone & Lia did their best times in their races. Unfortunately Lia missed the top 8 in the prelims and had to settle for 9th with the 6th fastest time in the finals.
200 IM
Yes, it is a bit of an upset that Ella Eastin didn't win the 200IM. She still has the A.R. from 1 year ago, about 0.6 better than her swim today (and 0.04 better than the winning time). Ally Howe had a nice improvement in the B finals over her PAC-12 time (by 0.9).
1 meter
I don't know anything specific about Kassidy Cook's 1m finals. I do see she was 2nd in the prelims (which doesn't influence the finals), and her score in the finals was only 3 points less. Yet, she finished about 20 points out of 2nd.  She had such a fine season on the 1 meter, she has to be very disappointed.
400 Medley Relay
It looks like there was a missed touch pad at the exchange between back & breast for Stanford (But the officials obviously decided it was not a false start.) Ally Howe swam a NCAA & American record 49.69 at the PAC-12s but is only credited with a 51.42 in the leadoff here. But the breaststroke swimmer shows a reaction time of -0.62. If her reaction time was a more typical 0.24, that would make Ally's real time to be about 50.56. Even so, that's a very slow time for her. By comparison, the Cal swimmer swam a 49.80. After applying the same correction, Kim Williams time was about a 59.37(est. rt 0.24), which is about 0.4 faster than at PAC-12s. Lia Neal obviously didn't want to lose out to Cal and swam a very fast 46.15 (r.t. 0.26), about equivalent to a 46.58 flat start. The Cal freestyler, who left well early (r.t. -0.13), block-to-wall time was 0.2 slower than Lia's. Had the Cal freestyler had anything slower than a 0.04 reaction time, Stanford would have won without the D.Q.
500 Free
What a fantastic swim, as Katie L. knocks another second off her A.R. from the PAC-12s. (Btw, she was 1.3 seconds short of a time that was invited to the men's NCAAs). Megan Byrnes & Leah Stevens had good improvements over their PAC-12 times, but Katie Drabot fell off by 6 seconds. Katie D.'s PAC-12 time would have been 3rd, but she got no points today.
Tomorrow is the
 400IM (Ella Eastin seeded 1st, Allie Szekely seeded 4th),
 100 Fly (Janet Hu 1st (but top 5 are within 0.07), Lindsey Engel seeded 15th),
 200 Free (seeds 1,2,8, and 11, but #3 seed was very fast in the relay, while Katie D.(#11) swam poorly in the 500 Free).
 100 Breast (likely no points),
 100 Back (Ally Howe 1st, Janet Hu 3rd, but the Cal swimmer had a much better 100 today),
 200 Medley Relay (Stanford #1, Cal #2 by 0.1),
 3-meter.
Stanford's power is striking tomorrow, but that means there is considerable downside as well. We could win 5 events, but there is a non-zero chance that we win none. I still think Stanford should win this meet, but I see some performances that weren't quite as impressive as I might have anticipated.
(Btw, if you look at all the teams in the 200 Free Relay, you'll see one swimmer had a reaction time of -0.02 seconds and was not disqualified. Another swimmer had a reaction time of -0.06 and was disqualified. I think the dividing line is between -0.03 and -0.04.)
Some swimmers are relay swimmers; some swimmers do best in individual swims.
Perhaps Simone is someone that swims the individual races better. Her lead-off 50 Free on the 200 Free Relay was 0.3 seconds slower than her individual race. (By the way, she did not set an American record, but it was a NCAA record.)
She didn't even finish first of the lead-off swimmers. If she'd swum her relay time in the individual event, she'd have been 4th. If she'd swum her individual time on the relay, we'd have been 0.02 behind Cal.
Lia, on the other hand, had a slow relay exchange, but swam within 0.01 of what she swam in the B finals of the 50 Free (after accounting for reaction times). Ally Howe had a really good split (21.29), which after accounting for reaction time, would have been just on the bubble of getting into the A final of the 50 free.
Both Simone & Lia did their best times in their races. Unfortunately Lia missed the top 8 in the prelims and had to settle for 9th with the 6th fastest time in the finals.
200 IM
Yes, it is a bit of an upset that Ella Eastin didn't win the 200IM. She still has the A.R. from 1 year ago, about 0.6 better than her swim today (and 0.04 better than the winning time). Ally Howe had a nice improvement in the B finals over her PAC-12 time (by 0.9).
1 meter
I don't know anything specific about Kassidy Cook's 1m finals. I do see she was 2nd in the prelims (which doesn't influence the finals), and her score in the finals was only 3 points less. Yet, she finished about 20 points out of 2nd.  She had such a fine season on the 1 meter, she has to be very disappointed.
400 Medley Relay
It looks like there was a missed touch pad at the exchange between back & breast for Stanford (But the officials obviously decided it was not a false start.) Ally Howe swam a NCAA & American record 49.69 at the PAC-12s but is only credited with a 51.42 in the leadoff here. But the breaststroke swimmer shows a reaction time of -0.62. If her reaction time was a more typical 0.24, that would make Ally's real time to be about 50.56. Even so, that's a very slow time for her. By comparison, the Cal swimmer swam a 49.80. After applying the same correction, Kim Williams time was about a 59.37(est. rt 0.24), which is about 0.4 faster than at PAC-12s. Lia Neal obviously didn't want to lose out to Cal and swam a very fast 46.15 (r.t. 0.26), about equivalent to a 46.58 flat start. The Cal freestyler, who left well early (r.t. -0.13), block-to-wall time was 0.2 slower than Lia's. Had the Cal freestyler had anything slower than a 0.04 reaction time, Stanford would have won without the D.Q.
500 Free
What a fantastic swim, as Katie L. knocks another second off her A.R. from the PAC-12s. (Btw, she was 1.3 seconds short of a time that was invited to the men's NCAAs). Megan Byrnes & Leah Stevens had good improvements over their PAC-12 times, but Katie Drabot fell off by 6 seconds. Katie D.'s PAC-12 time would have been 3rd, but she got no points today.
Tomorrow is the
 400IM (Ella Eastin seeded 1st, Allie Szekely seeded 4th),
 100 Fly (Janet Hu 1st (but top 5 are within 0.07), Lindsey Engel seeded 15th),
 200 Free (seeds 1,2,8, and 11, but #3 seed was very fast in the relay, while Katie D.(#11) swam poorly in the 500 Free).
 100 Breast (likely no points),
 100 Back (Ally Howe 1st, Janet Hu 3rd, but the Cal swimmer had a much better 100 today),
 200 Medley Relay (Stanford #1, Cal #2 by 0.1),
 3-meter.
Stanford's power is striking tomorrow, but that means there is considerable downside as well. We could win 5 events, but there is a non-zero chance that we win none. I still think Stanford should win this meet, but I see some performances that weren't quite as impressive as I might have anticipated.
(Btw, if you look at all the teams in the 200 Free Relay, you'll see one swimmer had a reaction time of -0.02 seconds and was not disqualified. Another swimmer had a reaction time of -0.06 and was disqualified. I think the dividing line is between -0.03 and -0.04.)