09-27-2017, 09:00 AM
(09-27-2017, 07:56 AM)donkey687 link Wrote:It would be hard to argue with any of these decisions if Love, Phillips, Holder, Meeks and Reid all declare for the draft with eligibility remaining. That would be a blow to next year's team, but those guys are all playing at a pretty high level and would likely be draftable. Have we ever had 5 guys declare early before?
It's hard to argue with anyone's decision anywhere, particularly if they are actually able to get drafted. We don't know much about their personal situations, whether they are benefiting from school, etc., etc.
A few short points.
- I don't consider it "leaving early" if a player gets a degree, or at the least that is a different category. That usually, but not always, means whether they stick around four years or not. Under that criterion, Phillips and Holder would not be leaving early.
Maybe that's just a personal pecadillo though, either way it affects the quality of the next year's team.
- Having the ability to get into the NFL is not necessarily the same thing as choosing to leave early. Without knowing the guys involved, it is almost impossible to predict exactly how they balance the pros and cons. Some guys want to stay (Luck, Freeman at Oregon, Falk at WSU, lots more), some don't.
- The incentive to stay drops dramatically once you have a degree. Thus in general I am much more inclined to think the four year guys who can get drafted will go. Thus my basic assumption would be that Phillips and Holder are more likely to go - but that isn't based on any information. I am not sure what Holder's draft prospects are - personally I think they ought to be pretty high but he hasn't had a ton of publicity and was out injured most of last year.
- I don't think the defensive backfield guys have been playing particularly well this year. Of course, that doesn't quite matter in the draft - it's how NFL guys project they will play.
- Love might be an interesting case. He says he wants to be a pediatrician. The chances he will actually end up doing so go way up if he gets a Bachelor's degree before leaving. But, he'll have to balance that with the short-career-for-running-backs thing.
