[BostonCard]

2) and 3) strike me as the most plausible interpretations of what happened here. 1) is unlikely; we've seen Chryst now over 1.5 years. We know Chryst is the guy who:

1) can't beat Ryan Burns out in a competition
2) has only completed more than 60% of passes once in seven years of play
3) has numerous faults that are readily visually apparent (tendency to skip passes off the ground in both 2016-17; inability to evade rush in 2017; etc.)

I suppose it's theoretically possible that the turnaround is imminent, though I can't think of any historical examples of a QB being mediocre for a long period and suddenly reversing it and being good. (Chryst's 2015 YPA is...6.56. His 2016 YPA is ... 6.65. His 2017 YPA is...6.79.)

It's extremely plausible that Costello isn't better than this level. But we've seen some evidence that suggests he isn't, and of course it's possible his true level is even better than his first two games. Gamble on upside.

Let's back up a bit.  Chryst did beat out Burns, eventually.  He didn't beat out Burns initially, but initially Burns actually played well to start last year (against Kansas State: 14/18, 8.7 ypa, 1 TD, 0 INT).  His performance against USC was acceptable (and we won).  His performance against UCLA was a red flag, until he led the winning touchdown drive.  It was only in back-to-back losses against Washington and Washington State where the bottom fell out for him and he was never the same.  His fate was clinched in horrible performances against Notre Dame and Colorado.

Was "seven years" of play a typeo, or are you referring also to his high school career?  In any case, I think there are legitimate questions about his accuracy, and you are correct, the fact that he seems to struggle to make even open throws accurately is a red flag.  Then again, that suggests somewhat of a mental rather than a physical limitation, and perhaps the staff thinks he can overcome it.

The inability to evade a rush seems more likely a result of his knee injury, since this wasn't much of an issue last year (or, was less of an issue than for his predecessor).

While my instinct is with yours; that over the course of eight full games in 2016 and 2017, against a variety of opponents, most of them with sub-par defenses, Chryst has played below-average for a QB.  I don't necessarily subscribe to the idea that the QB whose game you haven't seen is magically better than the one you have in place.  But based on the (albeit scant) evidence we have to date: two nearly full games for Costello, eight full games for Chryst, I think Costello is the better QB.  But again, with two full games under Burns' belt last year, comparing him to the eight games we've had of Chryst, one might have concluded that Burns is the better QB.

BC

[BostonCard]

2) and 3) strike me as the most plausible interpretations of what happened here. 1) is unlikely; we've seen Chryst now over 1.5 years. We know Chryst is the guy who:

1) can't beat Ryan Burns out in a competition
2) has only completed more than 60% of passes once in seven years of play
3) has numerous faults that are readily visually apparent (tendency to skip passes off the ground in both 2016-17; inability to evade rush in 2017; etc.)

I suppose it's theoretically possible that the turnaround is imminent, though I can't think of any historical examples of a QB being mediocre for a long period and suddenly reversing it and being good. (Chryst's 2015 YPA is...6.56. His 2016 YPA is ... 6.65. His 2017 YPA is...6.79.)

It's extremely plausible that Costello isn't better than this level. But we've seen some evidence that suggests he isn't, and of course it's possible his true level is even better than his first two games. Gamble on upside.

Let's back up a bit.  Chryst did beat out Burns, eventually.  He didn't beat out Burns initially, but initially Burns actually played well to start last year (against Kansas State: 14/18, 8.7 ypa, 1 TD, 0 INT).  His performance against USC was acceptable (and we won).  His performance against UCLA was a red flag, until he led the winning touchdown drive.  It was only in back-to-back losses against Washington and Washington State where the bottom fell out for him and he was never the same.  His fate was clinched in horrible performances against Notre Dame and Colorado.

Was "seven years" of play a typeo, or are you referring also to his high school career?  In any case, I think there are legitimate questions about his accuracy, and you are correct, the fact that he seems to struggle to make even open throws accurately is a red flag.  Then again, that suggests somewhat of a mental rather than a physical limitation, and perhaps the staff thinks he can overcome it.

The inability to evade a rush seems more likely a result of his knee injury, since this wasn't much of an issue last year (or, was less of an issue than for his predecessor).

While my instinct is with yours; that over the course of eight full games in 2016 and 2017, against a variety of opponents, most of them with sub-par defenses, Chryst has played below-average for a QB.  I don't necessarily subscribe to the idea that the QB whose game you haven't seen is magically better than the one you have in place.  But based on the (albeit scant) evidence we have to date: two nearly full games for Costello, eight full games for Chryst, I think Costello is the better QB.  But again, with two full games under Burns' belt last year, comparing him to the eight games we've had of Chryst, one might have concluded that Burns is the better QB.

BC