[stupac2]

You're not alone in being confused about this team. The main thing we've been able to figure out is that the team is way, way better at home. Most teams are, but we have a particularly brobdingnagian split.

Going by my quick-and-easy ranking method of "net yards per play" (offensive minus defensive yards per play) and separating out home/away, ND would be a big favorite at home (1.68 vs 0.82), but we're favorites at home (1.04 vs 0.94).

Interestingly, this is a big skewed by both of our teams' last games. Stanford actually had a negative split despite winning, bringing down our average, and before last week ND is close to even home vs away.

So in my mind it depends a lot on which team shows up for both sides. We could get an all-time classic (good team shows up for both), blowout in either direction (good vs bad), or sloppy, mistake-filled game (both bad). How you handicap the game depends a lot on what probabilities you put to those 4 options.

[stupac2]

You're not alone in being confused about this team. The main thing we've been able to figure out is that the team is way, way better at home. Most teams are, but we have a particularly brobdingnagian split.

Going by my quick-and-easy ranking method of "net yards per play" (offensive minus defensive yards per play) and separating out home/away, ND would be a big favorite at home (1.68 vs 0.82), but we're favorites at home (1.04 vs 0.94).

Interestingly, this is a big skewed by both of our teams' last games. Stanford actually had a negative split despite winning, bringing down our average, and before last week ND is close to even home vs away.

So in my mind it depends a lot on which team shows up for both sides. We could get an all-time classic (good team shows up for both), blowout in either direction (good vs bad), or sloppy, mistake-filled game (both bad). How you handicap the game depends a lot on what probabilities you put to those 4 options.