[d4cohn]

Shaw is a star college coach.

I expect him to coach here at least through his youngest son's graduation, even while I also expect Stanford to revert to range of 8-4 (high) to 5-7 (low, hopefully) for many of the out years. 

Yet, by this standard, Stanford has only had one "out year" in Coach Shaw's first 7 years. And even that year, it took some uncharacteristically bad games (home losses to SC and Utah come to mind), to reach the high end of your range. As such, the prior that represents Coach Shaw's body-of-work doesn't support this theory. I mean, sure, anything could happen, but I will give you a simple reason why I don't think it is likely: under Coach Shaw, Stanford has been fantastic at home (the Card were undefeated and rarely challenged at home this year). As such, a 5-1 or 6-0 home record makes it virtually impossible to record anything less than 8 wins.

[d4cohn]

Shaw is a star college coach.

I expect him to coach here at least through his youngest son's graduation, even while I also expect Stanford to revert to range of 8-4 (high) to 5-7 (low, hopefully) for many of the out years. 

Yet, by this standard, Stanford has only had one "out year" in Coach Shaw's first 7 years. And even that year, it took some uncharacteristically bad games (home losses to SC and Utah come to mind), to reach the high end of your range. As such, the prior that represents Coach Shaw's body-of-work doesn't support this theory. I mean, sure, anything could happen, but I will give you a simple reason why I don't think it is likely: under Coach Shaw, Stanford has been fantastic at home (the Card were undefeated and rarely challenged at home this year). As such, a 5-1 or 6-0 home record makes it virtually impossible to record anything less than 8 wins.