01-29-2018, 11:30 AM
I don't mean to skip over OSU as they are a real challenge, but I was looking at Stanford vs Oregon. I hope one of us will dig into OSU as well.
Oregon may be better suited, or even experimented, with the fast-paced game.
They have games this year with scores
 110 - 77 (p.s. Drake)
 114 - 87 (Weber State)
 94 - 83 (UW)
Conference play isn't as gaudy, but they average 77.1, 47.4 FG%, 37.3 3PT%
Stanford:Â 68.1, 44.2 FG%, 31.6 3PT%.
It is a lot closer if the top scorer from each team were neutralized:Â 55.7 - 53.1
A small part of their advantage in scoring is due to more possessions per game.
Oregon(conf): 201/377 2FG, 82/220 3FG, 105 OR, 223 opponent DR.
 About 492 possessions, at 1.55 pts/possession.Â
 Score vs opponent: +12.6/game
Stanford: 194/378 2FG, 68/215 3FG, 130 OR, 216 opponent DR.
 About 463 possessions, at 1.47 pts/possession.Â
 Score vs opponent: +11.9/game
(I'm using  possessions = 2FG misses + 3FG misses - OR,
ignoring the effect of fouls & FTs, and multiple ORs per possession. Note that FG misses < OR + opponent DR due to FT misses on last FTA)
Head to head, two teams will have the same number of possessions (+/- 1).Â
 At 47.75 possessions, the teams would score 74 - 70.2
It is interesting to note that Oregon has 25 more FG (66 more FG points) but Stanford has 25 more OR
[I should note that had this comparison been done after 9 conference games rather than 10, the differences would have been more.]
Unfortunately, the game is at Oregon, so they get an advantage from that.
Oregon's loss was at OSU. Oregon has played 2xOSU, UCLA, ASU. Games remaining include Cal, Stanford, UCLA, ASU.
Stanford's losses were at UCLA & ASU. Stanford has played 2xASU, 2xUCLA. Games remaining include OSU, Oregon, 2xCal.
Obviously, Stanford wants to, and can, win both games this weekend. For getting a decent seed in the NCAA tourney, a win at OSU is very important, so Stanford has to prepare for that game first. Even if we lose to Oregon, we may well get a second shot at them in the PAC-12 tournament.
(Anyone know how the PAC-12 does tiebreakers for conference seeding? If UCLA & Stanford wind up with the same record as #2, how is seed #2 chosen? One future is that both UCLA & Stanford win out, except losing vs Oregon (1. Ore; 2. Stan & UCLA). Another possibility is that UCLA wins out while Stanford loses at Oregon (1. Ore & UCLA. 3. Stan.). Another is that both Stanford & UCLA win out (1. Stanford & UCLA. 3. Oregon) ASU & Cal & OSU can be players or spoilers as well, so there are lots of possibilities.)
Oregon may be better suited, or even experimented, with the fast-paced game.
They have games this year with scores
 110 - 77 (p.s. Drake)
 114 - 87 (Weber State)
 94 - 83 (UW)
Conference play isn't as gaudy, but they average 77.1, 47.4 FG%, 37.3 3PT%
Stanford:Â 68.1, 44.2 FG%, 31.6 3PT%.
It is a lot closer if the top scorer from each team were neutralized:Â 55.7 - 53.1
A small part of their advantage in scoring is due to more possessions per game.
Oregon(conf): 201/377 2FG, 82/220 3FG, 105 OR, 223 opponent DR.
 About 492 possessions, at 1.55 pts/possession.Â
 Score vs opponent: +12.6/game
Stanford: 194/378 2FG, 68/215 3FG, 130 OR, 216 opponent DR.
 About 463 possessions, at 1.47 pts/possession.Â
 Score vs opponent: +11.9/game
(I'm using  possessions = 2FG misses + 3FG misses - OR,
ignoring the effect of fouls & FTs, and multiple ORs per possession. Note that FG misses < OR + opponent DR due to FT misses on last FTA)
Head to head, two teams will have the same number of possessions (+/- 1).Â
 At 47.75 possessions, the teams would score 74 - 70.2
It is interesting to note that Oregon has 25 more FG (66 more FG points) but Stanford has 25 more OR
[I should note that had this comparison been done after 9 conference games rather than 10, the differences would have been more.]
Unfortunately, the game is at Oregon, so they get an advantage from that.
Oregon's loss was at OSU. Oregon has played 2xOSU, UCLA, ASU. Games remaining include Cal, Stanford, UCLA, ASU.
Stanford's losses were at UCLA & ASU. Stanford has played 2xASU, 2xUCLA. Games remaining include OSU, Oregon, 2xCal.
Obviously, Stanford wants to, and can, win both games this weekend. For getting a decent seed in the NCAA tourney, a win at OSU is very important, so Stanford has to prepare for that game first. Even if we lose to Oregon, we may well get a second shot at them in the PAC-12 tournament.
(Anyone know how the PAC-12 does tiebreakers for conference seeding? If UCLA & Stanford wind up with the same record as #2, how is seed #2 chosen? One future is that both UCLA & Stanford win out, except losing vs Oregon (1. Ore; 2. Stan & UCLA). Another possibility is that UCLA wins out while Stanford loses at Oregon (1. Ore & UCLA. 3. Stan.). Another is that both Stanford & UCLA win out (1. Stanford & UCLA. 3. Oregon) ASU & Cal & OSU can be players or spoilers as well, so there are lots of possibilities.)