[2006alum]

Agree with so much of what everyone has said, although I am not quite as down as others. To me, this is statistical regression to the mean. We overperformed at the Oregon schools, and we underperformed a bit this weekend. C.al was predicted by realtimeRPI to beat us in the away game by 72-66; they got two treys more than the stats would predict. They played like a team that had players who had one last chance to get a win against Stanford in 4 years; they were hungrier, hustled more, played with more fire, and just wanted it more. We played like a team that was tired and phoning it in. Other than McPhire, who I agree looked tired but was really trying to will herself to make something happen, everyone else seemed pretty lackadaisical.

I only got to see part of the game (that bad part in the second half), but here's what I noticed:

I share the concerns about Smith - she isn't breaking out the way we had hoped, and she just hasn't developed enough skills beneath the basket to make contested shots the way that Appel or the Ogwumike's can. That leaves her at the high post, which means her shot needs to be on. It hasn't been.

That said, I'm more worried about Carrington - 1-8? What is going on? Have defenses scouted her so effectively that they've taken away her bread and butter shots? I thought a lot of her attempts were so questionable it would be a miracle if they went in. She hasn't had a solid, let alone spectacular, game in ages. She hasn't shot more than 40% since Arizona State, which is also the last game she broke 10 points.

I also thought Johnson had a really weak performance at Haas, with pretty poor rebounding. I felt like Anigwe was clobbering her most of the time and getting away with it. This was a game where we really needed a more physical big at the post. Unfortunately, neither Smith nor Johnson really fills that role. I think both Fingall and Dodson are better at that. I also thought we should have kept Dodson in more. Yes, she needs to develop her touch, but in the limited time I saw her in, she was contesting rebounds much more vigorously than Johnson was.

Defense in general was really poor this game. Probably the worst I've seen since McPhee has been back. We seemed a step slow and their tiny point guard was basically just waltzing around us all second half.

I agree about Marta needing to take more shots - she was oddly quiet this game.

But in terms of next season, I don't think Marta's going anywhere. Tara trusts her a lot, and I don't see a better primary point guard developing in the next season. Maybe Williams, but they seem to play pretty well as a 1-2 combo, and at this point I don't see Wilson becoming a starter, and it seems pretty unlikely Brown or Hull will before the end of next season either.

To me, it seems pretty obvious that Carrington should slot in at the 3 to replace McPhee, Smith remains at the 4, and then one of Dodson or Fingall at the 5 (more probably Dodson, since Fingall seems to have a natural 4 game). All things considered, I think next's year's transition is pretty obvious. I agree that Sniezek, Carrington, and Smith have all had some disappointing games recently, but I haven't seen anything from our bench players to suggest that they aren't our best options at the 1, 3, and 4, respectively, and I'd just be so surprised if Lexie Hull or Jenna Brown comes guns blazing on day one. It has not been typical for our recruits ranked lower than top 10 to start much their freshman season, and that includes the likes of Dodson and Bird, both #11. Amber is the only recent exception I can think of. It seems even less probable now that we're running the Princeton, which is a much harder offense to learn than the Triangle. 

[2006alum]

Agree with so much of what everyone has said, although I am not quite as down as others. To me, this is statistical regression to the mean. We overperformed at the Oregon schools, and we underperformed a bit this weekend. C.al was predicted by realtimeRPI to beat us in the away game by 72-66; they got two treys more than the stats would predict. They played like a team that had players who had one last chance to get a win against Stanford in 4 years; they were hungrier, hustled more, played with more fire, and just wanted it more. We played like a team that was tired and phoning it in. Other than McPhire, who I agree looked tired but was really trying to will herself to make something happen, everyone else seemed pretty lackadaisical.

I only got to see part of the game (that bad part in the second half), but here's what I noticed:

I share the concerns about Smith - she isn't breaking out the way we had hoped, and she just hasn't developed enough skills beneath the basket to make contested shots the way that Appel or the Ogwumike's can. That leaves her at the high post, which means her shot needs to be on. It hasn't been.

That said, I'm more worried about Carrington - 1-8? What is going on? Have defenses scouted her so effectively that they've taken away her bread and butter shots? I thought a lot of her attempts were so questionable it would be a miracle if they went in. She hasn't had a solid, let alone spectacular, game in ages. She hasn't shot more than 40% since Arizona State, which is also the last game she broke 10 points.

I also thought Johnson had a really weak performance at Haas, with pretty poor rebounding. I felt like Anigwe was clobbering her most of the time and getting away with it. This was a game where we really needed a more physical big at the post. Unfortunately, neither Smith nor Johnson really fills that role. I think both Fingall and Dodson are better at that. I also thought we should have kept Dodson in more. Yes, she needs to develop her touch, but in the limited time I saw her in, she was contesting rebounds much more vigorously than Johnson was.

Defense in general was really poor this game. Probably the worst I've seen since McPhee has been back. We seemed a step slow and their tiny point guard was basically just waltzing around us all second half.

I agree about Marta needing to take more shots - she was oddly quiet this game.

But in terms of next season, I don't think Marta's going anywhere. Tara trusts her a lot, and I don't see a better primary point guard developing in the next season. Maybe Williams, but they seem to play pretty well as a 1-2 combo, and at this point I don't see Wilson becoming a starter, and it seems pretty unlikely Brown or Hull will before the end of next season either.

To me, it seems pretty obvious that Carrington should slot in at the 3 to replace McPhee, Smith remains at the 4, and then one of Dodson or Fingall at the 5 (more probably Dodson, since Fingall seems to have a natural 4 game). All things considered, I think next's year's transition is pretty obvious. I agree that Sniezek, Carrington, and Smith have all had some disappointing games recently, but I haven't seen anything from our bench players to suggest that they aren't our best options at the 1, 3, and 4, respectively, and I'd just be so surprised if Lexie Hull or Jenna Brown comes guns blazing on day one. It has not been typical for our recruits ranked lower than top 10 to start much their freshman season, and that includes the likes of Dodson and Bird, both #11. Amber is the only recent exception I can think of. It seems even less probable now that we're running the Princeton, which is a much harder offense to learn than the Triangle.