[ColoradoTree]

the recent singles lineup swaps (Arbuthnott/Lampl and Higuchi/Shin) seem to have helped.

Two weeks ago we had ~15 ranking points, today we have ~30. Based on current standings, we'll need to get above 40 points to get into the top 16. Seems doable if we win out, but you never know with the ITA's system.

For sure. I think Arbuthnott earned her initial #2 spot based on her excellent fall season (while Lampl wasn't as impressive), but Lampl has really upped her game with the dual season upon us, and that switch certainly paid dividends. And it's odd to see freshmen playing at #1 and #4, but you're right, the Higuchi-Shin swap has worked well.  I've been really impressed with Kimberly Yee coming on, too.  She might not be in the lineup much longer once Lord returns, but Yee might be one of those players for whom feel is important. She's gotten better over the course of this young dual season, so getting more matches than usual has certainly seemed helpful for her.

And as for the rankings, I'm now confident that we'll be in the Top 16 if we win out. That would mean at least 4 more wins over ranked opponents (Oregon, Wazzu, ASU, and UW), and likely 5 assuming Cal rejoins the rankings sooner rather than later.  Though that's just the regular season--a loss in the Pac-12 championships could bump us back out of the Top 16. But three more wins there would run the record to 19-3, with the benefit of a couple more wins over ranked opponents, including another win over UCLA, who should be the highest-ranked non-Stanford team in the conference at that point. At that point, I think Stanford would be knocking on the door of the Top 10 and would be seeded somewhere from 8-11 for the tournament.

For comparison's sake, here are the last few seasons with total and conference records going into the NCAA tournament, the resulting NCAA seed, and Stanford's ultimate performance in that tournament:

2017: 21-2 (13-0); #7 (includes 3-0 record in Pac-12 championships); lost in NCAA final
2016: 14-5 (9-2); #15; won NCAA championship
2015: 15-5 (7-4); #14; lost in NCAA quarters
2014: 16-2 (9-2); #11; lost in NCAA semis
2013: 16-4 (9-2); #12; won NCAA championship

Note: In 2013-17, we played Cal twice in the regular season, but only one was an official Pac-12 match; I'm counting both matches each year here in the conference record because that makes sense to me.

[ColoradoTree]

the recent singles lineup swaps (Arbuthnott/Lampl and Higuchi/Shin) seem to have helped.

Two weeks ago we had ~15 ranking points, today we have ~30. Based on current standings, we'll need to get above 40 points to get into the top 16. Seems doable if we win out, but you never know with the ITA's system.

For sure. I think Arbuthnott earned her initial #2 spot based on her excellent fall season (while Lampl wasn't as impressive), but Lampl has really upped her game with the dual season upon us, and that switch certainly paid dividends. And it's odd to see freshmen playing at #1 and #4, but you're right, the Higuchi-Shin swap has worked well.  I've been really impressed with Kimberly Yee coming on, too.  She might not be in the lineup much longer once Lord returns, but Yee might be one of those players for whom feel is important. She's gotten better over the course of this young dual season, so getting more matches than usual has certainly seemed helpful for her.

And as for the rankings, I'm now confident that we'll be in the Top 16 if we win out. That would mean at least 4 more wins over ranked opponents (Oregon, Wazzu, ASU, and UW), and likely 5 assuming Cal rejoins the rankings sooner rather than later.  Though that's just the regular season--a loss in the Pac-12 championships could bump us back out of the Top 16. But three more wins there would run the record to 19-3, with the benefit of a couple more wins over ranked opponents, including another win over UCLA, who should be the highest-ranked non-Stanford team in the conference at that point. At that point, I think Stanford would be knocking on the door of the Top 10 and would be seeded somewhere from 8-11 for the tournament.

For comparison's sake, here are the last few seasons with total and conference records going into the NCAA tournament, the resulting NCAA seed, and Stanford's ultimate performance in that tournament:

2017: 21-2 (13-0); #7 (includes 3-0 record in Pac-12 championships); lost in NCAA final
2016: 14-5 (9-2); #15; won NCAA championship
2015: 15-5 (7-4); #14; lost in NCAA quarters
2014: 16-2 (9-2); #11; lost in NCAA semis
2013: 16-4 (9-2); #12; won NCAA championship

Note: In 2013-17, we played Cal twice in the regular season, but only one was an official Pac-12 match; I'm counting both matches each year here in the conference record because that makes sense to me.