11-12-2018, 06:59 AM
(11-11-2018, 10:31 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Here’s a case where the stats can support whichever narrative you like. We are near the bottom of the PAC-12 in total yards; only USC, UCLA, and Cal are worse. On the other hand, we are second in the PAC-12 in yards per play. My preferred stat, points per drive, had us 59th in the country before the OSU game (and excluding the Davis game). We’ll improve after Saturday, but it’s still an average at best stat.
Neither yds/gm nor yds/play are particularly good measures of overall offensive effectiveness, as discussed over and over here.
Yds/gm within one game is quite meaningful, but over a season is not a good comparison between teams that try to run at different paces - and almost nobody tries to play at the slow pace of Stanford.
Yds/play will give bigger values for boom or bust type offenses over steady ball control offenses.
This year, these factors deflate Stanford's yds/gm numbers and inflate their yds/play numbers.
Stanford's offense right now is playing about as well as can be expected for a team that generally cannot run the ball. For the most part Stanford has been moving the ball since the Utah game - though along with the inconsistencies that come with a deep-ball, no-run-game offense.
Previous to that, Stanford's offense was often horrendous, making season to date averages inherently mixed.
FEI is "value" per drive adjusted for strength of opponent. On that score, Stanford was #39 in the country before the OSU game (it also does not count the Davis game as only FBS opponents are considered). That is also #5 in the Pac 12, with Stanford immediately behind Utah (4th in Pac 12, #38 in country). ASU is #2 in the Pac 12, which makes me think our defense's performance in that game really was quite good.
And it turns out that Stanford's defense is #56 in the country, #5 in the Pac 12 by FEI (again pre-OSU). That's not exactly great, but better than I would have thought.
