[2006alum]

interestingly, ESPN's Win Probability tracker is at 96.9% for Alabama (down from 99.9% at the beginning of the game). So it still doesn't believe that The Citadel has a chance in heck

That is interesting.  I guess it's the kind of win probability you would assign to Bama at the beginning of a 0-0 game.  10-10 is the same differential, just with 30 minutes to play.  And ESPN fully expects the Tide to dominate this second half.

Except that if a team can stay even with Alabama through half a football game, that's useful information to understand the odds that they could win overall. And if they can stay even through the half, it substantially improves the likelihood they could outscore Alabama over 30 minutes. Put it this way - if you're Vegas, do you offer the same payoff on a Citadel victory now as you did before the game? I sure as heck wouldn't.

[2006alum]

interestingly, ESPN's Win Probability tracker is at 96.9% for Alabama (down from 99.9% at the beginning of the game). So it still doesn't believe that The Citadel has a chance in heck

That is interesting.  I guess it's the kind of win probability you would assign to Bama at the beginning of a 0-0 game.  10-10 is the same differential, just with 30 minutes to play.  And ESPN fully expects the Tide to dominate this second half.

Except that if a team can stay even with Alabama through half a football game, that's useful information to understand the odds that they could win overall. And if they can stay even through the half, it substantially improves the likelihood they could outscore Alabama over 30 minutes. Put it this way - if you're Vegas, do you offer the same payoff on a Citadel victory now as you did before the game? I sure as heck wouldn't.