[BostonCard]

This data is from the NBA, where the SportVU camera set-ups and analytics allow you to do this sort of analysis.



You can see that an uncontested 10-footer is worth about 1 point per shot.  That is less than a well-defended (defender within 2 feet) shot within about 6 feet of the basket, but more than a three point shot with a defender within 4 feet.

For college shots, subtract about a 5% field goal percentage across distances (subtract a little bit more closer to the basket).

None of these analyses take into account second order effects. A team which takes, and makes shots from the mid-range will force the opposing defense to defend them more closely at those distances, which will increase the chance of open looks at other, higher percentage distances.

https://toddwschneider.com/posts/nba-vs-...rformance/

BC

[BostonCard]

This data is from the NBA, where the SportVU camera set-ups and analytics allow you to do this sort of analysis.



You can see that an uncontested 10-footer is worth about 1 point per shot.  That is less than a well-defended (defender within 2 feet) shot within about 6 feet of the basket, but more than a three point shot with a defender within 4 feet.

For college shots, subtract about a 5% field goal percentage across distances (subtract a little bit more closer to the basket).

None of these analyses take into account second order effects. A team which takes, and makes shots from the mid-range will force the opposing defense to defend them more closely at those distances, which will increase the chance of open looks at other, higher percentage distances.

https://toddwschneider.com/posts/nba-vs-...rformance/

BC