12-11-2019, 07:54 PM
The short answer is that I don't think we have the defense that we did in 2012 - 2014 (2011 and 2015 weren't quite as good defensively, but one year we had Luck, and the other we had McCaffrey, and both those defenses were at least in positive territory). Moreover, looking at who is coming in, I don't see us getting that defense any time soon. Maybe the 2021 - 2023 classes will be well populated with defensive playmakers and in 4 years we will have a good defense again.
Here our our defensive FEI score and rankings through the Harbaugh/Shaw years (DFEI Defense Ratings (DFEI) represent the per possession scoring advantage a team's defense would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average offense.)
2019: -0.45 (90th)
2018: 0.12 (47th)
2017*: -0.02 (60th)
2016: 0.45 (20th)
2015**†: 0.15 (52nd)
2014: 0.91 (8th)
2013**†: 0.71 (13th)
2012**†: 0.90 (8th)
2011†: 0.59 (25th)
2010†: 0.82 (10th)
2009: -0.47 (99th)
2008: -0.17 (83rd)
2007: 0.24 (56th)
* Pac-12 N Champions
** Pac-12 Champions
† NY6 bowl
2015 was the only year we reached a NY6 bowl with a below-average defense. 2014 was the only year where our defense failed to carry us, and that year we a) didn't have a running back b) had a quarterback dealing with a sick father.
Defense doesn't get talked about as much around these parts, maybe because it is tougher to second-guess defensive play-calling than offensive play-calling (even though I frequently hear calls for more blitzes), or maybe because there is more of a focus on individual player deficiencies (coverage skills of our safeties, for example). But we had Pac-12 championship caliber teams in 2012 and 2013 not because the offenses on those teams were particularly good, but because we had top-10 defenses. I think if we can get our DFEI to 0 next year (that is, our defense is not hurting us), I think we'll be ok. Longer term, I'm hopeful that we can get to a defense to what we had in 2016: nothing to write home about, but it gave us a decent shot at winning if we had the lead late in the game. Twice this year we had that situation and the defense failed to hold onto the lead. I will be surprised if we can get back to the defenses we saw in 2012 - 2014 again, and thus I will be surprised if we can do much better than 8 wins a year routinely.
BC
Here our our defensive FEI score and rankings through the Harbaugh/Shaw years (DFEI Defense Ratings (DFEI) represent the per possession scoring advantage a team's defense would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average offense.)
2019: -0.45 (90th)
2018: 0.12 (47th)
2017*: -0.02 (60th)
2016: 0.45 (20th)
2015**†: 0.15 (52nd)
2014: 0.91 (8th)
2013**†: 0.71 (13th)
2012**†: 0.90 (8th)
2011†: 0.59 (25th)
2010†: 0.82 (10th)
2009: -0.47 (99th)
2008: -0.17 (83rd)
2007: 0.24 (56th)
* Pac-12 N Champions
** Pac-12 Champions
† NY6 bowl
2015 was the only year we reached a NY6 bowl with a below-average defense. 2014 was the only year where our defense failed to carry us, and that year we a) didn't have a running back b) had a quarterback dealing with a sick father.
Defense doesn't get talked about as much around these parts, maybe because it is tougher to second-guess defensive play-calling than offensive play-calling (even though I frequently hear calls for more blitzes), or maybe because there is more of a focus on individual player deficiencies (coverage skills of our safeties, for example). But we had Pac-12 championship caliber teams in 2012 and 2013 not because the offenses on those teams were particularly good, but because we had top-10 defenses. I think if we can get our DFEI to 0 next year (that is, our defense is not hurting us), I think we'll be ok. Longer term, I'm hopeful that we can get to a defense to what we had in 2016: nothing to write home about, but it gave us a decent shot at winning if we had the lead late in the game. Twice this year we had that situation and the defense failed to hold onto the lead. I will be surprised if we can get back to the defenses we saw in 2012 - 2014 again, and thus I will be surprised if we can do much better than 8 wins a year routinely.
BC