01-20-2020, 12:15 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-20-2020, 12:17 PM by OutsiderFan.)
OK, I just ran the math...
The Niners have allowed 11.8 PPG in all games (playoffs included) started and finished by Dee Ford, Kwon Alexander, and Jaquiski Tartt. In those games the Niners have averaged just about 4 sacks per game. Until those guys went out with injuries, the Niners were on pace for the best pass defense in the last 40 years in the NFL, which basically means ever, because passing offenses weren't nearly as prolific 40+ years ago.
The last time a high flying offense played a Super Bowl and didn't win? You have to go all the way back to... LAST YEAR. The Rams scored what, 3 points after a 537 point scoring season? How about Cam Newton's 2015 Panthers, who were as ballyhooed an offense as the Chiefs in 2015 (15-1 500 Points scored), but only managed 10 points in the Super Bowl. Or maybe let's revisit those Patriots teams that had hyped offenses but lost to the NYG in both Super Bowl matchups against them because the Giants had the better defense.
Teams that play great defense, can rush the passer, and run the ball are the most difficult to overcome. This doesn't mean the Niners will beat the Chiefs, but history tells us the Niners will slow the Chiefs dramatically. Hell, they held 531 point scoring Baltimore to its season low 20 (without the three key defenders who missed time), until the playoffs when Tennessee held them to 12.
One thing nobody is going to guess: The Niners scored more points this year (479 - 451) and the Chiefs actually gave up 2 fewer overall (308-310). Sure, Mahomes missed a couple games, but the Niners were clobbered by injuries in the middle of the season.
Most importantly, when George Kittle is on the field, the Niners average 4.9 YPA on outside runs. When he is off, they average 3.0. This is mind-blowing dominance you get on every outside run. He is basically an edge killer. Statistically, the Niners never need to pass with Kittle on the field because three straight runs is a first down. This is what most people just aren't going to appreciate when assessing the Niners in the upcoming Super Bowl.
The Niners have allowed 11.8 PPG in all games (playoffs included) started and finished by Dee Ford, Kwon Alexander, and Jaquiski Tartt. In those games the Niners have averaged just about 4 sacks per game. Until those guys went out with injuries, the Niners were on pace for the best pass defense in the last 40 years in the NFL, which basically means ever, because passing offenses weren't nearly as prolific 40+ years ago.
The last time a high flying offense played a Super Bowl and didn't win? You have to go all the way back to... LAST YEAR. The Rams scored what, 3 points after a 537 point scoring season? How about Cam Newton's 2015 Panthers, who were as ballyhooed an offense as the Chiefs in 2015 (15-1 500 Points scored), but only managed 10 points in the Super Bowl. Or maybe let's revisit those Patriots teams that had hyped offenses but lost to the NYG in both Super Bowl matchups against them because the Giants had the better defense.
Teams that play great defense, can rush the passer, and run the ball are the most difficult to overcome. This doesn't mean the Niners will beat the Chiefs, but history tells us the Niners will slow the Chiefs dramatically. Hell, they held 531 point scoring Baltimore to its season low 20 (without the three key defenders who missed time), until the playoffs when Tennessee held them to 12.
One thing nobody is going to guess: The Niners scored more points this year (479 - 451) and the Chiefs actually gave up 2 fewer overall (308-310). Sure, Mahomes missed a couple games, but the Niners were clobbered by injuries in the middle of the season.
Most importantly, when George Kittle is on the field, the Niners average 4.9 YPA on outside runs. When he is off, they average 3.0. This is mind-blowing dominance you get on every outside run. He is basically an edge killer. Statistically, the Niners never need to pass with Kittle on the field because three straight runs is a first down. This is what most people just aren't going to appreciate when assessing the Niners in the upcoming Super Bowl.