[TheFarm07]

Brief Write-Up:

I have watched the game.  Painful.  I won't do a full post-mortem.  But here are my accumulated thoughts.

First, we have now played 7 top 25 teams in a row.  Back when we started this stretch, I thought we were shaky and would gladly have taken 4 out of 7 wins.  Overall, the team has finished well considering the injuries.  Realistically, I hope for 3 wins in the NCAAs to get us to another 30 win season, 4 wins and a final four would be a major achievement for us and I don't realistically expect it.

Stopping Oregon from scoring is not something other teams can control.  The team that beat Team USA has to have an off night AND their opponent has to have their best game of the season.  Neither of those two things were true tonight.

Tonight I was saddened by our drop off in defense as well as our inability to solve Oregon's defense.  We held Sabally down, but Minyon Moore had a career night.  No matter how many sharpshooters they have, we should not have given up 10/19 three point shots.  Our post defense was dreadful--we have done much better against Ruthy before, but gave her 9/11 tonight.

I could have accepted the loss more easily if Oregon just beat us in a footrace, but our offense looked disjointed and indecisive against the Oregon zone.  This is the third time we have played it, and while the Oregon players are superb offensive players, they are merely good defenders--not juggernauts.  By time three our offense should have done better. Instead, this was almost a carbon copy of our 55-87 drubbing in Eugene this year.

Overall, Oregon just shot the ball better than we did.  Both teams shot exactly 55 times.  Oregon made 10 treys and 21 twos.  Stanford made 6 treys and only 13 twos.  We had a big offensive rebounding edge, Oregon had a big turnover edge--these cancelled out.  Free throw attempts were 19 for us and 21 for them.  You just won't find gross statistical differences in those ways that would explain a 30+ point wipeout.

Here is what explains it:  Oregon shot 56%, we shot 35%.  That might be one of the worst shooting disparities in our history.  I certainly don't remember anything quite like it.

There were few bright spots in individual performances.  Lexie's offensive renaissance last night dwindled to 9 points today.  Williams was effective with 21 points and a high shooting percentage, but she was alone.  Dodson was quiet on offense.  Hebard scored right over the top of all of our bigs--none of them was particularly effective in the paint.

Prechtel was the one bright spot.  She barely played yesterday.  Today she got 19 minutes and was the only player in double figures other than Williams.  Not only was she 2/3 from three point range, she seems to me to be the most reliable offensive presence inside.  Her layups and putbacks usually go in.  I can't see what Tara must see--some sort of defensive flaw--because otherwise she should be starting and getting most of the minutes.

WISH LIST TO CHEER US UP:

I'm tempted to write-up the season, but we still have games to go.  But here is my wish list:

I wish that Anna Wilson gets her 5th year of eligibility, and her brother, in a gesture of good will toward Anna's team and Tara, offers to pay her tuition for a year, which would preserve the extra scholarship for....

Dijonai Carrington, who comes back as a redshirt senior to lead the team next year.

Behind the deep experience of Senior Williams, Redshirt Seniors Wilson and Carrington, Seniors Dodson and Jerome, older and wiser Hull sisters, rapidly maturing Belibi and Prectel, and healed-up Jones, and a fabulous freshman class with Brink--next year we dominate the Pac 12 and win Tara's third national championship.

That scenario does not really sound at all outlandish.  Just so long as we get a year that is relatively free from injuries.  I guess that is my greatest wish.

Thanks for your analysis as always, 81. What do you think is wrong with our offense? That has been my chief concern this season. It can look great for a quarter or two or a game or two, but then we far too easily fall apart.

Two of my thoughts from your thoughts:

• It is mystifying with Tara's usage of Prechtel. From the first time we played the Oregon schools in mid-January to the Mountain road trip in mid-February, Ashten played at least 14 minutes in ten of those games and scored in double figures in eight of them.
  But until today, against the Oregon and Arizona schools and then against Oregon State and UCLA in the Pac-12 tourney, she only played as much as 10 minutes in any of those games. Similarly, after starting the season so great in the first few games, she was seldom seen during the Vancouver tournament and the ensuing Ohio State game afterwards.
• That would be really incredible if the scenario you described occurred. In that situation, our only two losses would be Fingall (not insignificant, but not too much of a hurdle to overcome) and Brewer. We would combine senior experience with another infusion of talent coming in. Brink, van Gytenbeek and Nnopu would not feel as much pressure with the experienced crew in front of them. Also, we need at least one player, whether it be Kiana or Haley or DiJonai or Lexie, to take a big step forward and play at a All-American level. No team in the last dozen years at least, maybe longer has won the national title without having at least one All American on their squad (and usually more than that).
  

[TheFarm07]

Brief Write-Up:

I have watched the game.  Painful.  I won't do a full post-mortem.  But here are my accumulated thoughts.

First, we have now played 7 top 25 teams in a row.  Back when we started this stretch, I thought we were shaky and would gladly have taken 4 out of 7 wins.  Overall, the team has finished well considering the injuries.  Realistically, I hope for 3 wins in the NCAAs to get us to another 30 win season, 4 wins and a final four would be a major achievement for us and I don't realistically expect it.

Stopping Oregon from scoring is not something other teams can control.  The team that beat Team USA has to have an off night AND their opponent has to have their best game of the season.  Neither of those two things were true tonight.

Tonight I was saddened by our drop off in defense as well as our inability to solve Oregon's defense.  We held Sabally down, but Minyon Moore had a career night.  No matter how many sharpshooters they have, we should not have given up 10/19 three point shots.  Our post defense was dreadful--we have done much better against Ruthy before, but gave her 9/11 tonight.

I could have accepted the loss more easily if Oregon just beat us in a footrace, but our offense looked disjointed and indecisive against the Oregon zone.  This is the third time we have played it, and while the Oregon players are superb offensive players, they are merely good defenders--not juggernauts.  By time three our offense should have done better. Instead, this was almost a carbon copy of our 55-87 drubbing in Eugene this year.

Overall, Oregon just shot the ball better than we did.  Both teams shot exactly 55 times.  Oregon made 10 treys and 21 twos.  Stanford made 6 treys and only 13 twos.  We had a big offensive rebounding edge, Oregon had a big turnover edge--these cancelled out.  Free throw attempts were 19 for us and 21 for them.  You just won't find gross statistical differences in those ways that would explain a 30+ point wipeout.

Here is what explains it:  Oregon shot 56%, we shot 35%.  That might be one of the worst shooting disparities in our history.  I certainly don't remember anything quite like it.

There were few bright spots in individual performances.  Lexie's offensive renaissance last night dwindled to 9 points today.  Williams was effective with 21 points and a high shooting percentage, but she was alone.  Dodson was quiet on offense.  Hebard scored right over the top of all of our bigs--none of them was particularly effective in the paint.

Prechtel was the one bright spot.  She barely played yesterday.  Today she got 19 minutes and was the only player in double figures other than Williams.  Not only was she 2/3 from three point range, she seems to me to be the most reliable offensive presence inside.  Her layups and putbacks usually go in.  I can't see what Tara must see--some sort of defensive flaw--because otherwise she should be starting and getting most of the minutes.

WISH LIST TO CHEER US UP:

I'm tempted to write-up the season, but we still have games to go.  But here is my wish list:

I wish that Anna Wilson gets her 5th year of eligibility, and her brother, in a gesture of good will toward Anna's team and Tara, offers to pay her tuition for a year, which would preserve the extra scholarship for....

Dijonai Carrington, who comes back as a redshirt senior to lead the team next year.

Behind the deep experience of Senior Williams, Redshirt Seniors Wilson and Carrington, Seniors Dodson and Jerome, older and wiser Hull sisters, rapidly maturing Belibi and Prectel, and healed-up Jones, and a fabulous freshman class with Brink--next year we dominate the Pac 12 and win Tara's third national championship.

That scenario does not really sound at all outlandish.  Just so long as we get a year that is relatively free from injuries.  I guess that is my greatest wish.

Thanks for your analysis as always, 81. What do you think is wrong with our offense? That has been my chief concern this season. It can look great for a quarter or two or a game or two, but then we far too easily fall apart.

Two of my thoughts from your thoughts:

• It is mystifying with Tara's usage of Prechtel. From the first time we played the Oregon schools in mid-January to the Mountain road trip in mid-February, Ashten played at least 14 minutes in ten of those games and scored in double figures in eight of them.
  But until today, against the Oregon and Arizona schools and then against Oregon State and UCLA in the Pac-12 tourney, she only played as much as 10 minutes in any of those games. Similarly, after starting the season so great in the first few games, she was seldom seen during the Vancouver tournament and the ensuing Ohio State game afterwards.
• That would be really incredible if the scenario you described occurred. In that situation, our only two losses would be Fingall (not insignificant, but not too much of a hurdle to overcome) and Brewer. We would combine senior experience with another infusion of talent coming in. Brink, van Gytenbeek and Nnopu would not feel as much pressure with the experienced crew in front of them. Also, we need at least one player, whether it be Kiana or Haley or DiJonai or Lexie, to take a big step forward and play at a All-American level. No team in the last dozen years at least, maybe longer has won the national title without having at least one All American on their squad (and usually more than that).