[Farm93]

The next big decision point is going to be the Olympic Games scheduled to start 24/July.  The pandemic may subside substantially between now and then, but if it is continuing to be widespread it may need to be postponed/cancelled as well.

BC

My guess is Japan will successfully bend their case curve as they have been obsessed with testing since January.  The problem would be those Americans.   A bunch of untested, disease carrying Americans would quickly ruin all of Japan's efforts to date.   

The IOC will see that the USA and a few other countries have too many likely travelers yet to be tested and will realize the Olympics need to be cancelled.

[Farm93]

The next big decision point is going to be the Olympic Games scheduled to start 24/July.  The pandemic may subside substantially between now and then, but if it is continuing to be widespread it may need to be postponed/cancelled as well.

BC

My guess is Japan will successfully bend their case curve as they have been obsessed with testing since January.  The problem would be those Americans.   A bunch of untested, disease carrying Americans would quickly ruin all of Japan's efforts to date.   

The IOC will see that the USA and a few other countries have too many likely travelers yet to be tested and will realize the Olympics need to be cancelled.